CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 1:00 PM EST
844
FXUS61 KCLE 241800
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
100 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure departs to the east, low pressure will move east
just north of the Great Lakes, moving a weak boundary across the
area tonight into early Tuesday. High pressure returns late Tuesday
in Wednesday before another low impacts the area Wednesday night
into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 AM EST Update...
Southwest winds will continue to increase over the next few
hours. By early afternoon, gusts to 35 to 40 mph are likely
across most of the area with isolated and brief gusts to 45 mph
possible, primarily in downsloping locations across Northwest
Pennsylvania and possibly across portions of north-central Ohio.
Confidence is too low to warrant a Wind Advisory at this point,
but a Special Weather Statement may be needed at some point this
afternoon. No changes were needed outside of increasing the wind
gust forecast through early this evening and making small
adjustments to hourly temperatures.
Previous Discussion...
The high pressure system that has provided a reprieve in
precipitation the last couple days will continue to move east today,
allowing for a surface trough associated with a low over Ontario to
begin to impact the area. This trough is expected to tighten the
gradient over the area and result in gusty southwest winds sustained
at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible. These winds will
ramp up this morning and persist through this evening. Chances of
precipitation will increase tonight as an area of increased moisture
near the trough axis accompanies upper level support from a
shortwave over the area. Weak surface convergence will also aid in
shower development, but the good news is that above normal
temperatures will allow for all precipitation to remain as rain.
Total QPF for this event looks to remain under 0.1" and be pretty
light given the weaker overall forcing. This should limit flood
concern, especially along area rivers where runoff from warming
temperatures melting snow will also increase water levels. Overall
flooding concern remains minimal, but will need to continue to
monitor area rivers for any potential of mechanical or thermal
breakup that may lead to ice jams. The bulk of the area should dry
out by Tuesday evening, although a few lingering showers are
possible across far NE OH and NW PA.
Although there is the potential for rain and conditions will likely
remain mostly cloudy, high temperatures today and Tuesday are
expected to climb into the 40s, allowing for a break from the frigid
cold lately. Overnight lows will also remain mild with temperatures
only falling into the mid 30s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The mid week time period will bring milder than average temperatures
and a good chance for rain showers. A shortwave trough will track
eastward across the Great Lakes region late Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. A cold front will push through the area Wednesday evening.
Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will climb into the lower and
middle 50s on Wednesday. Rain showers will be likely with the cold
frontal passage Wednesday evening. An upper level trough will
develop over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday. Colder but
seasonable temperatures will return behind the cold front on
Thursday. We will continue with the chance for rain/snow showers
Thursday into Thursday night. Daytime high temperatures will be in
the lower 40s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s with a
chance for snow showers in the snowbelt area.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A northwest flow aloft will develop by the end of the week. Another
mid level shortwave or clipper like system will track across the
Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes region Friday night and
Saturday to bring a chance of rain/snow showers. An upper level
trough will carve across the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great
Lakes region over the weekend. Temperatures will be near or slight
below seasonable this weekend underneath the upper level trough. The
trough will lift out by next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Terminals will see higher ceilings throughout the rest of the
day. Ceilings have been steady around 10-12kft but have moved to
the east and a higher, +25kft layer, has moved in from the
west. The western terminals have already seen the changeover and
will continue east into the evening.
Main concern for the first portion of the TAF period will be the
south-southwesterly gusting winds and potential for LLWS. Winds
have been consistently gusting between 25-30kts today with some
terminals seeing gusts +35kts. A strong LLJ is pushing through
the region currently with westerly flow of 45-50kts. This LLJ
will push eastward out of the region by 00-02Z tonight and
winds will start to diminish and gusts will fall off. With the
fall of low level winds with the departure of the LLJ, the
potential for LLWS has fallen as well. There may be some
instances of wind shear or turbulence through the 02Z time
period, but they will be infrequent due to winds mixing well
across the region. Winds will diminish down below 12kts out of
the southwest for all terminals by 02-03Z tonight.
Tomorrow morning there will be IFR conditions are possible across
all terminals as a trough with the potential of precipitation
moves through the region. There will be a decrease in visibility
down to MVFR by 09-11Z with the precipitation potential and
continue through the end of the TAF period. The southern
terminals will have the greatest chance of seeing precipitation
and reduced visibility and ceilings down to IFR.
Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR possible late
tonight through Tuesday and again Wednesday through Thursday
night.
&&
.MARINE...
Lake Erie is primarily ice-covered and thus Small Craft Advisory
issuance remains suspended until further notice. No additional
marine headlines are expected through the upcoming week. South to
southwest winds increase 20 to 25 knot with occasional gusts up to
30 knots today. Significant breaks or shifts in the ice across Lake
Erie are possible and will need to be monitored today. Winds will
continue to be from the southwest 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday shift
from the west later in the day. Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots will
return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. By the end of the week,
winds will become from the west to northwest 15 to 20 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/15
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...23
MARINE...77
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 1:00 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502241800-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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