PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 11:26 PM CST
859
FXUS63 KPAH 240526
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1126 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend continues into early next week, followed by a
chance of rain the middle of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Our TN Valley surface high pressure ridge keeps the low
drifting across the Gulf Coast at bay, while we retain the
drying/warming profile for the new week's beginning. The models
do pick up on a ripple in the upper flow that drops into/across
the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, but it is expected to produce
little more than some clouds here as modeled qpf stays just
north/east of our CWA.
After highs in the 40s today and 50s tmrw, a more robust height
rise in the wake of the aforementioned wave's passage means
some 60 degree readings may well become more prevalent heading
into the mid week. That's when the next front takes shape and
approaches...probably staying dry thru the first half of
Wednesday before incoming with some chance rain pops upon its
approach/passage Wednesday afternoon-evening that completes
Wednesday night. While the models have largely been moisture and
instability starved with its passage, they have suggested at
times that there might be just enough moisture/lift/instability
along the front itself to support a clap of thunder Wednesday
evening, and today's run is no exception. After that, it's dry
and seasonally cooler but still ranging thru the 50s mostly
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
The TAFs remain VFR. As surface high pressure remains centered
to the east of the area, light S-SSW winds will continue
overnight, increasing to around 9-12 kts Monday afternoon with
gusts to around 20 kts. Winds will relax Monday evening. Clear
skies will yield to increasing cirrus cloud coverage throughout
the forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 11:26 PM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502240526-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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