PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 22, 12:57 PM EST
798
FXUS61 KPBZ 221757
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1257 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, quiet weather continues into Sunday. Increasing
temperatures are expected throughout the week. Light
precipitation chances return Tuesday, ahead of an approaching
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry, quiet weather expected
- Temperatures will be above freezing this afternoon for a large
portion of the region.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence remains high (above 65%) that afternoon temperatures
will be greater than or equal to 32F for areas south of
Pittsburgh with increasing warm advection. The ridges and areas
in the vicinity of I-80 will range from the upper-20s to
low-30s with lingering cold air aloft.
Mid to upper-lvl clouds will continue to stream across counties
south of Pittsburgh this evening as a weak shortwave trough
enters central West Virginia.
Pockets of low-lvl moisture are expected to eject into the
region this evening under southwest flow, raising dew points in
the low-20s. With a mostly clear sky prompting radiational cooling,
temperatures will likely range from the the upper-teens to
low-20s. Cold air drainage will likely create localized cold
spots within the valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperatures will continue to rise; above average temperatures
are likely Monday/Tuesday
- Precipitation chances increase early Tuesday, ahead of an
approaching front
- Precipitation type will likely be in the form of rain for a
large portion of the region; rain mixed with snow could occur
in the vicinity of the Allegheny Plateau/I-80
------------------------------------------------------------------
Models remain consistent that warmer conditions are expected
during the short term. Confidence remains high (above 70%) that
afternoon high temperatures will climb to upper-30s for eastern
Ohio as 850mb temps climb from -5 to -2 degrees Celsius. Elsewhere,
expected mid to low-30 temperatures across the region as well
as dry conditions.
Strong west-southwest flow is expected late Monday into Tuesday,
ahead of an approaching front and its associated trough from the
north. Above average temperatures and increasing cloud coverage
is likely across the region.
Precipitation chances increase ahead of an approaching cold
front early Tuesday. With lingering warm aloft, precip type will
likely be rain for a large portion of the region. With the 850mb
temps ranging from -1 to 1 Celsius for areas north of
Pittsburgh, a few ensemble members have period of wintry mix
(rain/snow). With warm temperatures at the surface, snow
accumulation will be a trace or none. Accumulative precipitation
totals through late Tuesday will likely range from a trace to a
quarter of an inch. Areas that will likely experience the
higher amounts will be near I-80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Periodic precipitation chances through the period
- Near to above seasonable temperatures continue
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a trough and surface cold front will
advance eastward from the central CONUS on Wednesday. The
trough is progged to approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley
region Wednesday night through Thursday night. Rain chances will
increase through that period, through the ridges could see a
rain/snow mix with marginal 850 mb temperatures. The rain could
mix with snow elsewhere Thursday night in cold advection behind
the trough axis and surface cold front, though precip should be
ending as the colder air moves in.
Precipitation should end Friday as the trough axis shifts east
of the region, and shortwave ridging briefly builds in. Another
trough is progged to drop southeastward from the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region Saturday, with rain chances increase
as it approaches the Upper Ohio Valley region. Some snow could
also mix in, though this will depend on the amount of warm
advection that occurs ahead of the trough.
Temperatures will start out around 10 degrees above average on
Wednesday, with readings returning to near or slightly above
seasonable levels Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry advection and subsidence will erode the MVFR strato layer
from the southwest to the northeast this morning. Confidence in
erosion timing is highest for terminals near or southwest of
KPIT and lowest at FKL/DUJ. By 18z, there is an near or greater
than 80 percent probability from ensemble modeling that all
sights sit at VFR (with potential for lingering scattered
layer). Cloud cover thereafter will be mid-level decks
associated with shortwave movement north and south of the
region.
Outlook...
A series of shortwaves are expected to drop out of
the Great Lakes early next week, bringing restrictions and
periodic precipitation chances.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Frazier
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 22, 12:57 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502221757-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!