MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 17, 5:16 PM CST ...New AVIATION...
320
FXUS64 KMOB 172316
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
516 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. Calm or light
northerly winds tonight become northeasterly to easterly around 5
knots on Tuesday. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Let the winter whiplash continue as cold air has once again surged
into the area and looks to last through much of the week. Tonight
will be chilly once again with temperatures likely dropping into the
low to mid 30s. Some moisture will slowly increase across the area
and the overlap of near freezing temperatures, light winds, and
increased moisture may lead to patchy to areas of frost tonight.
Tuesday will be slightly warmer with highs mainly returning to the
low 60s across the area. Dry conditions should persist with ridging
in place on Tuesday. BB/8
SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 403 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
The weather will quickly change by late Tuesday night as a surface
low develops off the upper TX coast in response to a shortwave
moving into the southern Plains and Lower MS River Valley. This
surface low will move across the north central and northeastern Gulf
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Rain will overspread the
area after midnight and persist through Wednesday morning. Strong
850-700mb frontogenesis will focus across the southern half of the
area, resulting in periods of moderate to heavy rain. As a result,
rain totals of 1-2 inches are expected across most of the forecast
area, with the highest totals focused along the coastal counties.
Cannot rule out localized amounts up to 3 inches for coastal areas
due to the aforementioned frontogenetic forcing. However, we are not
anticipating any significant flooding issues at this time. The rain
is forecast to quickly shift east of the forecast area by Wednesday
afternoon as the surface low weakens and quickly moves of the
southeast Atlantic coast east of the Florida peninsula. In the wake
of the low, arctic high pressure will begin to build into the area
as a strong northern stream shortwave amplifies over the Midwest and
Ohio Valley areas, bringing another round of cold, possibly record
cold, temperatures to parts of the area.
Lows Tuesday night will generally be in the 40s across most of the
area, except for a few spotty upper 30s along the Highway 84
corridor and some lower 50s at the coast. Wednesday will be a cooler
day as the system passes by just to our south with highs ranging
from the upper 40s to mid 50s over inland areas to the lower 60s at
the coast. It will then turn very cold Wednesday night with lows
dropping into the low to mid 20s far inland with upper 20s and
low/mid 30s closer to and along the coast. Breezy conditions given
the strength of the cold air advection will lower wind chills into
the upper single digits/lower teens well inland with upper teens/20s
along the coast. It should be noted that the current forecast low
for Mobile for Wednesday night into Thursday morning is 27, and the
record low for the date is 26, so we may be near/at record low
temperatures for Mobile and likely some other locations as well by
sunrise Thursday morning. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 403 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Thursday and Thursday night still look to be the coldest day/night
stretch of the long term period, as the arctic airmass becoming
entrenched across the region. Highs Thursday will be hard pressed to
make it out of the 40s for most locations (except for lower 50s
along the immediate coast), which is is typically very hard to do
for late February. To put it in perspective, for February 20th,
Mobile has only had seven days with highs in the 40s, with the
record low high temperature of 47 set back in 1940. Pensacola has
had only 6 days of highs in the 40s, with a record low high of 44
set in 1921. The current forecast highs for that day are 48 in
Mobile and 49 in Pensacola. Guidance has continued to trend colder,
so these forecast highs may need to be lowered further in upcoming
forecasts. Record lows are possible for Thursday night into early
Friday morning as well with lows dropping into the upper teens to
lower 20s well inland and mid to upper 20s across the coastal
counties (even at the coast). Record lows for February 21st, are
28 in Mobile and 21 in Pensacola, so Mobile would be more likely
to break the record. We will slowly moderate temperatures on
Friday through the weekend, but temperatures will remain below
normal.
Rain chances enter back into the forecast picture Saturday night
into Sunday with a passing shortwave in the still somewhat active
zonal upper level flow, but drying out again during the early part
of next week. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Offshore flow will become more easterly through Tuesday. East to
southeast winds will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
as a surface low moves east across the northern Gulf. Strong
offshore flow redevelops Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as
the low moves east of the area and arctic high pressure builds in
from the north. Winds will gradually subside Thursday night through
Friday night. Small craft advisory will likely need to be issued for
the end of this week. BB/8
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 37 63 46 57 27 47 24 51 / 0 0 90 70 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 43 62 49 58 32 47 28 52 / 0 0 90 90 0 0 0 0
Destin 44 63 51 60 36 51 30 53 / 0 0 80 100 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 32 62 42 55 27 45 21 52 / 0 0 80 80 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 32 60 39 49 21 42 20 48 / 0 0 90 50 0 0 0 0
Camden 30 58 39 50 23 41 19 48 / 0 0 80 80 0 0 0 0
Crestview 33 64 44 58 31 50 23 53 / 0 0 80 90 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 17, 5:16 PM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502172316-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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