IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 6:19 AM EST
331
FXUS63 KIND 131119
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
619 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered flurries today. Possible dusting in some
areas, but most locations should receive only trace accumulations
- Widespread Precipitation expected Friday night through Saturday
night. Mostly rain is expected with snow mixed in at times at
the onset and end. Heavy rain is possible at times.
- Frigid temperatures will settle in Sunday into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 227 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Rest of Wednesday Night into this Morning:
A surface low is racing off to the northeast, providing a push of
colder air on the backside of the low into central Indiana. At the
same time, the best moisture advection is also be departing to the
east. That said, some lingering moisture in within low levels,
trapped beneath increasing pressure will lead to patchy drizzle and
flurries through the night, and into the morning. Luckily this
should not amount to more than a dusting, with minimal to no impacts
expected. Overnight temperatures will struggle to drop beneath low
cloud cover, but modest CAA should be enough to drop lows into the
mid to upper 20s.
Today and Tonight:
Drier low to mid level air will work its way into the Ohio Valley
throughout the day, but it will take a while to erode the status
layer. While the stratus layer is still present, patchy flurries
will remain possible. Coverage of these flurries should be isolated
to all areas outside of far NE central Indiana, where even a brief
accumulating snow shower (dusting) is possible. Winds will remain
gusty throughout the day as well, with gusts up to 30mph at times
late this morning and afternoon.
Once again, temperatures will struggle to alter much beneath the
blanket of clouds during the day, with most areas expected to
remain below freezing this afternoon. By tonight, breaks in the
clouds should become more prominent, allowing some IR to escape
the near surface, and lows to drop towards the single digits.
There could be a narrow corridor of mid to low sing digit lows
over far NW central Indiana tonight; focused on areas with a
remaining snow depth.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 227 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Active weather with heavy rainfall this weekend the main headlight
for the long term followed by the return of Arctic temperatures
starting Sunday night.
Friday...
Friday will start off very cold with Arctic high pressure over the
area. However, the high will quickly move east of the area on Friday
which will allow for the return of warm and moist advection due to
return flow on the backside of the high and ahead of a complex
Plains low pressure system. Model sounding profiles support a sunny
start to the day but with mid and high clouds increasing in the
afternoon in fast southwest aloft and ahead of a broad western
trough. This should allow temperatures to approach normal during the
afternoon with highs in the 30s.
Friday night through Sunday...
There are several ingredients favoring heavy rain over the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys this weekend as warm conveyor built brings in deep
Gulf moisture courtesy of a 50 knot low level jet pointing into
central Kentucky resulting in PWATs from 0.8 inches to an inch (75th
percentile to max moving average for the nearby KILN sounding
climatology from the SPC site) across central Indiana Friday night
into Saturday night. In addition, a 140+ knot upper jet will meander
nearby which will add the potential for jet dynamics and enhanced
lift to the synoptic dynamics and warm advection. This strongly
supports periods of heavy rain and upwards of 2+ inches of rain
possible over southern sections, closer to the low level jet and
higher PWATs and track of the surface low as the GFS/GEFS and
ECMWF/ECENs are in good agreement the low will track northeast
across northern Kentucky Saturday night. WPC has a slight risk for
excessive rainfall from around Vincennes to Bloomington to Rushville
and south for Day4 with a marginal risk as far north as a line just
northwest of Terre Haute, Lebanon and Tipton. River ensembles also
suggest minor flooding is possible this weekend into early next week
across lower parts of the Wabash, White and East Fork White.
BUFKIT soundings and critical thicknesses suggest the rain could
start off briefly as snow over the Upper Wabash Valley Friday night
and also return to snow as the system as the surface system departs
and the broad upper trough moves through Saturday night and Sunday.
Decreasing moisture should limit snow amounts.
The strong warm advection will bring temperatures back up well below
normal on Saturday. Despite the widespread rain, most locales should
hit the 40s. With the passage of the cold front and resultant breezy
northwest winds, highs Sunday will likely be in the morning, and
then temperatures will tumble down to the teens and 20s by evening.
Sunday night through Thursday...
The Arctic airmass will continue to funnel in from central Canada
Sunday night. The pressure gradient will weaken some but is still
suggestive that winds will be high enough and enough moisture will
remain in the boundary to nix radiational cooling potential. Still,
the cold advection alone could send temperatures reeling into the
single digits by Monday morning. After that, only a gradual rise in
temperatures looks likely through next Thursday. An upper low
spinning over the Upper Midwest could bring some light snow showers
to the area toward Midweek but confidence in specific timing and
coverage is not great at this time.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 619 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Impacts:
- Primarily MVFR through 20Z
- Flurries and isolated snow showers at KLAF/KIND
- Winds 280-300 degrees to around 12 knots with gusts to around 25
through 00-02z
Discussion:
Most of central Indiana is beneath a 1200-1800ft stratus deck, of
which should maintain into the mid-afternoon. KLAF/KIND may have
periods of flurries and snow showers. Within these snow showers,
brief reductions to IFR ceilings along with reductions to 4-6SM VIS
may occur.
Winds will be consistently strong out of the west throughout the
day. Generally, they'll be sustained between 10-15kts with gusts
between 20-25kts. Overnight, high pressure will build reducing winds
to calm and clearing skies.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Updike
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 6:19 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502131119-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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