JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 6:44 AM EST
623
FXUS63 KJKL 131144
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
644 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flooding and high water will persist at some points of the main
stem rivers today.
- Heavy rainfall this weekend could lead to significant flash
flooding and river flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM EST THU FEB 13 2025
Local surface analysis from across is largely quiet. Yesterday's
surface low has ejected through the Ohio Valley and is now moving
into the eastern Great Lakes. The associated trailing cold front is
extended through Ohio down to the Deep South and on the doorstep of
the CWA. Locally, showers associated with the cold front are moving
into the area with gusty west to northwest winds accompanying the
front.
Today will bring cold frontal passage with gusty west to northwest
winds and falling temperatures due to cold air advection. Forecast
timing of FROPA and decreasing showers is by early to mid-morning.
Behind the front, winds will remain gusty with sustained winds of 10
to 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20 to 25 mph. Also, fall
temperatures are expected with the warmest temperatures being
overnight. By early afternoon, temperatures are forecast to be in
the low to mid-30s. As surface high pressure builds into the region
behind the front, clouds will also be decreasing and as a result
overnight lows will all to the upper teens to lower-20s.
High pressure will remain over the area into Friday and with upper-
level height rises and subtle warm air advection taking place,
temperatures will climb into the mid-40s across the bottom third of
the CWA but will only climb into the upper-30s to low-40s along and
north of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 but a quiet end to the
forecast period is expected for the first time in almost a week.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 454 AM EST THU FEB 13 2025
***HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND***
The 13/00z model suite analysis beginning late Friday evening shows
quasi-zonal 500H flow over the Ohio Valley while a relatively
broad trough transits the western CONUS. The western trough will
dig through the Southern Plains on Saturday, causing flow to
become increasingly southwesterly into the Ohio Valley. The trough
finally pivots northeast on Sunday and across the Ohio Valley.
Ahead of the upper level trough, a lee cyclone will pass from the
Kansas/Colorado border Friday evening to the mid-Mississippi
Valley on Saturday evening and then up the Ohio Valley Saturday
night. The system's warm conveyor belt jet (ahead of the low
center) will pull copious amounts of moisture northward into
eastern Kentucky late Friday night/Saturday and continuing
through Saturday night until the low's trailing cold front passes
early Sunday.
The atmosphere ahead of the cold front is forecast to be extremely
moist with precipitable water and integrated vapor transport nearing
climatological maximums in both the NAEFS/ECMWF ENS. Instability of
up to ~500 J/kg of MUCAPE is also supportive of thunderstorms
(mainly elevated) which will be favored to backbuild and train.
Rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour could occur and high
impact flash flooding is possible at locations which see these
rates persist for several hours. Accordingly, WPC has expanded
the Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall to all of eastern
Kentucky and WPC may consider a High Risk on later forecast
cycles. Our current event total rainfall forecast calls for a
widespread 3 to 4 inches but the 90th percentile of guidance (a
reasonable high end scenario) meets or exceeds 5 inches in many
portions of the area. In addition to the Moderate Risk for flash
flooding, river flooding is probable along most of the mainstem
rivers. Minor to Moderate river flood stages are favored in the
more conservative HEFS guidance. The GEFS/NAEFS solutions suggest
more widespread Moderate to Major flood stages, but those
solutions may be a bit too aggressive. In either case, those who
live and work in areas prone to flooding should prepare now and be
ready to take action when a Flood/Flash Flood Warning is issued
or flooding is observed.
As colder air rushes in behind the cold front on Sunday, the rain
will mix with snow and taper off from the west/northwest as the
deeper moisture quickly pulls away. Dry and cool surface high
pressure then noses in from the Northern Plains on Monday and
Tuesday as flow again turns quasi-zonal aloft. Another northern
stream trough then drops in from the northwest mid-week but
significant spatial and temporal differences in the guidance lead to
lower forecaster confidence in the specific details. Temperatures do
appear cold enough for mostly snow at this point.
In sensible terms, look for thickening clouds on Friday night giving
way to rain developing from southwest to the northwest late in the
night and on Saturday morning. Most places should establish lows in
the 30s early in the night before temperatures rise overnight.
Periods of rain, heavy at times, continue on Saturday and Saturday
night with temperatures continuing to rise through the 40s and into
the 50s by Saturday night. Rain mixes with snow and tapers off
quickly on Sunday with temperatures falling into the 30s on blustery
northwest winds. Little or no snow accumulation is expected on
Sunday/Sunday evening. Temperatures continue to fall into the 10s
on Sunday night and recover only into the 30s on Monday in spite
of ample sunshine. Temperatures moderate into the low 30s north to
mid 40s south on Tuesday. Accumulating snow, possibly mixed with
rain, then returns Tuesday night and Wednesday with temperatures
forecast to range in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU FEB 13 2025
Terminals continue to run IFR to MVFR with this TAF issuance.
Presently a cold front is working its way through the area and
terminals KSME, KLOZ and KSYM are on the backside of the front
with KJKL and KSJS seeing showers ahead of the front. Over the
next couple of hours, the front will cross through the area and
all terminals will be rain-free. However, low LIFR/IFR CIGS will
remain in place behind the front for a couple of hours before
gradual improvement in category occurs through the day. Also along
and behind the front, west winds will shift to the northwest and
remain breezy. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts from 20
to 25 knots will be possible through the day before winds begin
to slacken after 00Z/Friday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 6:44 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502131144-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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