ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 10:43 PM EST
167
FXUS61 KILN 120343
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1043 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley early
Wednesday and move northeast during the evening. The movement of
the low will be along a stationary front that will form over
northwest Ohio and southeast Indiana. Warm air to the southeast
of this track will bring rain, and the cold air along and
northwest of the track will see freezing rain and snow mix in on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The remainder of the work week
will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Update: To expand the winter weather advisory.
A favorable region of H8 frontogenesis continues to result in a
band of light snow across Southeast Indiana, Northern KY and
far Southern Ohio. Uncertainty revolves around the duration of
this band. Models having a difficult time capturing this banded
feature. At this time have additional snow of an inch or less
with pcpn diminishing from west to east after midnight.
This region of favorable lift and resultant band of light snow
extends just north of the previous winter weather advisory.
Considering impacts on roads with metro road model temperatures
indicating below freezing temperatures overnight across this
area - have expanded the winter weather advisory to include;
Warren, Clinton, Fayette, Pickaway, and Fairfield counties thru
4 AM.
Additional weak lift redevelops overnight and additional pcpn
may develop late tonight after 09Z across ILN/s southern
counties. This pcpn could be in the form of patchy freezing
drizzle/light freezing rain due to the shallow nature of the
lift/clouds and the lack of ice nucleation in the clouds. This
additional pcpn may result in light ice accumulation and may
necessitate an extension of the winter weather advisory.
Temperatures drop to lows from the lower/middle 20s across West
Central Ohio to the lower 30s across Northern Kentucky.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Frontogenesis will develop over the northwestern forecast area
during the afternoon and strengthen in the early evening. A
surface low will track northeast in the evening along what will
then be a stationary front. Precipitation - mainly rain - will
overspread the region as this low gets closer, acting as a
widespread area of lift to wring out available moisture.
Chances of rain will begin to increase in the afternoon, with
morning hours remaining essentially dry. Once the rain begins,
northwestern CWA will still be cold enough for this to fall as
freezing rain and snow mixture. This area is annotated by its
inclusion in a winter weather advisory that begins at noon,
ending overnight. Another wintery threat is found with lingering
precipitation from tonight's system in the early morning. This
will again be in the form of a wintery mix. However there are
factors limiting any real threat in the morning. A small spatial
footprint, continued west-northwest movement of the favored area
for mixed precip (temperatures rising) and a low chance for the
precipitation to begin with.
The remainder of the CWA looks to see the same timing and
increasing likelihood of precipitation throughout the day but
start and end as all rain.
Temperatures will continue to rise over the forecast area in the
evening, being in the warm sector of the northeastward tracking
low in northwestern CWA. In the northwest, temps will remain at
or around freezing through midnight after rising to that value
towards the noon hour. Enough of a rise is expected that
readings rise through the evening to around 50 in the
southeastern CWA, with everyone maxing out in the warm sector
close to midnight. After this time, the low will have moved into
northeastern Ohio. A trailing cold front will pass nw-se across
the CWA. The colder air will be significantly drier and mark the
ending of precipitation, area-wide by daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our region will be in the CAA pattern behind departing low pressure
on Thursday, along with drier air filtering in. Post frontal CAA
stratocumulus clouds will linger through much of the day.
Temperatures will not rise that much from morning lows. They will
range from the lower 30s west to the lower 40s east.
For Thursday night into Friday, a dry, but cold period is forecast
as high pressure traverses east across the Ohio Valley. Skies will
clear Thursday night followed by a good deal of sunshine on Friday.
After lows in the single digits to mid teens, highs on Friday will
range from near 30 north to near 40 south.
The weather pattern will be active for the upcoming weekend. A
frontal boundary will first make its way southeast into the region
Friday night into Saturday. Southern stream energy will then merge
with northern stream energy to produce deepening low pressure which
is forecast to track northeast Saturday night into Sunday across the
Ohio Valley. Rain and/or snow will be likely for the first part of
Saturday, followed by a warm up, then a cool down on the back side
of the low as we head into Sunday. Not only will there be the
potential for some wintry pcpn accumulations, but a period of heavy
rain will be possible, especially along and southeast of I-71 later
Saturday into Saturday night in association with the low pressure
system. With pwats pushing over 300 percent of normal, rainfall
amounts may range in the 2 to perhaps 4 inch rain which may result
in not only overland flooding but some river flooding as well. Pcpn
will likely change over to a period of snow on the back side of the
low on Sunday as the low departs to the northeast.
By Monday and Tuesday, mainly dry and and colder weather will invade
the region once again as high pressure pays a visit to the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. After a mild Saturday, temperatures will
become much below normal for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Active weather pattern to continue with a series of disturbances
in the southwesterly mid level flow pattern. Main impulse will
ripple east with snow acrs the southern TAF sites ending this
evening. This pcpn will result in MVFR to IFR conditions at
times. KDAY looks to remain VFR through this evening then
lowering to MVFR overnight.
In response to another weak disturbance - additional pcpn may
develop late tonight after 09Z across the southern TAF sites
with ceilings dropping to IFR or even LIFR. This pcpn could be
in the form of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain due to the
shallow nature of the clouds and the lack of ice nucleation in
the clouds.
WAA precipitation looks to overspread the area Wednesday afternoon
ahead of the next shortwave and surface low. Ceilings and vsbys
are expected to drop to IFR with rain developing across the
entire area. Can not rule out a brief period of freezing rain
(mainly across the northern TAF sites) prior to warming up on
Wednesday. Confidence is high that temperatures are sufficiently
warm to support all rain later in the afternoon at all TAF
sites.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through Thursday,
and again from Saturday through Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for
OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to 4 AM EST
Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-042>044.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for
INZ073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...AR
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 10:43 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502120343-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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