LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 3:43 AM CST ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
738
FXUS64 KLIX 100943
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
343 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Most of the isolated showers from last evening have dissipated
this morning. The main story for now is the fog potential. And at
the time of writing this discussion more like the lack thereof. A
very weak surface front has positioned itself generally along the
I10/12 corridor this morning. Fog behind it is far less likely
given the much lower dewpoints. However, advection fog that we've
seen the last several morning isn't developing because the flow
right along the front is mostly calm. That said, should be a great
opportunity for radiational fog as moisture pools right ahead of
the boundary, right? Well, not quite. See, we are still dealing
with mostly overcast skies limiting the development of radiational
fog. HUM has received some advection fog this morning and feel
the best potential will be right along the SE LA coast that may be
slightly removed from the surface boundary where again the
surface pressure gradient has broken down.
Today, the aforementioned front should dissipate over the region
only leaving a residual weak surface trough. At the surface,
light easterly flow will start to transition again to a more
southerly flow. With the trough in place, a weak upper H5 impulse,
and some decent low level moisture hanging around, cannot rule
out an isolated shower or two like yesterday evening...mainly
along and south of I10/12 this afternoon.
Going into Tuesday we look upstream as an upper level shortwave
begins to round the base of the larger scale trough over the
western states. As the trough moves east from Baja California into
central TX by early Wednesday, a front will begin to slide
southward toward our region. On Tuesday we cannot rule out an
isolated shower or two as the surface flow begins to increase
(frictional convergence) as well as perhaps a weak ripple in the
active southwesterly flow aloft. However, the best potential for
rain/thunderstorms will be on Wednesday as the upper level
shortwave mentioned above moves eastward and interacts with the
surface front. As it does we'll need to watch at least for a
conditional risk for severe weather on Wednesday prior to the
frontal passage late Wednesday/early Thursday. As of now global
forecast soundings do show some instability generally between
1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE. As well as effective bulk shear numbers
well within the favorable range. Still have a bit to watch the
numbers, but there is enough support around for at least mention
of severe on Wednesday. PWAT values are increasing as well and so
given the flow regime and perhaps a couple of rounds of showers
and storms from Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe, there could
be a localized hydro threat especially along and north of I10/12
where the strongest QPF signal resides. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Thursday the front moves through, however, with mostly southwest
flow aloft, the front hangs up across the northern Gulf. As the
front stalls, the globals begin to struggle just a bit in terms of
highlighting rainfall. One would think there would be some
isentropic ascent on the northern edge of the front and the ECM
does provide that (GFS less bullish), but the ECM and the GFS for
that matter waste no time lifting the residual cold front north
as a warm front on Saturday. So, Thursday looks like it could be
mostly dry...Friday isentropic upglide precip generally light,
then Saturday maybe dry again in the warm sector ahead of the
next system that should be developing over Oklahoma at this point.
Regardless, models are in great agreement on a cold frontal
passage through the region later this weekend. And with the strong
dynamics at play with this one, there is at least another signal
for severe weather potential at least synoptically, but there is
plenty of time to monitor this system as it's nearly a week out.
(Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025
VFR conditions hangs in the area for most terminals for a little
while longer but low stratus and fog should eventually start to
impact terminals. BTR and MCB and possibly HDC are most likely to
only see the low stratus while the rest are inclined to see fog.
Reductions to IFR to LIFR at times are likely overnight into the
early morning hours. After 16-17z, conditions should begin to
improve but will remain at MVFR due to ceilings. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Outside of the ongoing marine fog issues, fairly benign marine
conditions across the local waters. These conditions will continue
until around midweek or so before low level southerly onshore flow
begins to increase. This will likely produce cautionary headlines
for the tidal lakes and nearshore waters. However, beyond 20nm may
need SCA headlines. Eventually, conditions will improve going into
late week and to the start of the weekend where generally moderate
winds and seas are expected. However, conditions decline again by
mid to late weekend with a stronger cold front moving into the
region. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 55 77 63 / 10 0 50 60
BTR 73 60 82 67 / 0 0 40 50
ASD 72 60 80 65 / 30 10 40 30
MSY 71 62 80 67 / 30 10 40 30
GPT 71 59 74 63 / 20 10 50 40
PQL 75 60 78 65 / 10 10 50 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ056>060-
064>070-076>090.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ083>088.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RDF
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 3:43 AM CST ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502100943-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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