PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 3:21 AM CST
692
FXUS63 KPAH 110921
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
321 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An upper-level disturbance will continue to move through the
area today, bringing a mix of mainly rain and snow. A Winter
Weather Advisory continues for portions of the area for light
snow accumulations. The end time was trimmed back to noon as
precipitation is expected to end a bit earlier.
- Asecond disturbance comes through Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Temperatures are warmer and looks to be mostly rain for
much of the region with freezing rain and sleet possible for
portions of SEMO, and southern Illinois.
- Athird system comes through Friday night through the weekend.
This system would be all rain as temperatures warm
significantly on Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
First System: A weak cold front and upper-level disturbance will
pass through the Quad State region today, leading to widespread rain
and mixed precipitation. The best chance of seeing snow
accumulations will be for portions of southeast MO, southern IL into
southwest IN and a small portion of west KY along the Ohio River.
Specifically, in the Winter Weather Advisory locations. Those area
are still on track to see around 1 to 2 inches of snow, but it
wouldn't be too surprising to see a locally greater total where any
snow banding is concentrated. Looking at snowfall probabilities
early this morning, the HREF is still highlighting a band with
nearly 100% probability of seeing 1-2 inches in the Advisory area
this morning with a 50-80% chance of seeing close to 3 inches near
Owensboro through noon today. Surface observations are already
showing some light to moderate snow early this morning with
temperatures dropping into the low 30s from around Bollinger County
MO to Johnson County IL to Hopkins County KY and points northward.
Locations south of that line are in the mid 30s with only rain being
reported. We did adjust the end time of the Advisory to noon as a
majority of the heavy precipitation should be out of the area by
then. Still some question as to the overall impact from this system,
largely a result of recent warm temperatures across the area and
surface temperatures only expected to drop to near freezing in the
Advisory area. This should lead to only minor impacts this morning
and will mainly be during the morning commute with most of the
accumulation expected on grassy/elevated surfaces. Locations that
see all rain near the Arkansas and Tennessee border may end up with
close to 1 inch or maybe a bit more through this afternoon.
Second System: The next system will be hot on the heals of today's
system arriving very late tonight and lingering through Wednesday
evening. This system will be a low pressure system developing over
northern MS then lifting north-northeastward into roughly western KY
by Wednesday evening. Plenty of moisture will be available for this
system to produce widespread rain; however, there is a chance that
the precipitation will start out as a wintry mix of freezing rain and
sleet from roughly Carter County MO to Perry County MO then
northeast through Jefferson County IL. Similar to today's system
overall temperatures at the surface are marginal to see freezing
rain, so elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses would
stand the greatest chance at seeing impacts, especially if they are
untreated. As far as timing goes, the most likely time period for
seeing freezing rain/sleet in those area would be from around
sunrise Wednesday morning to around 10 am before temperatures warm
above freezing. The rest of the area is expected to remain warm
enough to see all rain. In fact, most of the area will see highs
warm into the 40s to possibly around 50 throughout the day. PWATs
with this system will be pushing 1 inch, which is roughly 150% of
normal for this time of year! The system is progressive enough that
most locations will only see around a half inch or so, but that is
still rainfall that is not needed and will lead to continued rises
on area rivers.
Third System: This system is expected to develop over the
Texas/Oklahoma border late Friday night into Saturday morning before
lifting east-northeastward into Tennessee Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. The flow will be wide open to the Gulf, which again
leads to ample moisture with the system. In fact, models are
painting out and additional 1 to 3 inches with the heaviest totals
expected to be across western Kentucky into southwest Indiana. NBM
probabilities would suggest roughly a 50 to 75% probability of
seeing 2 inches or more of rainfall across most of our county
warning area for Friday night through Saturday night!! Again, all of
the additional rainfall will lead to continued rises on area rivers
and we may need a Flood Watch at some point ahead of that system.
Will be watching that closely. Otherwise, not expecting mixed
precipitation with that system at all with temperatures largely in
the 50s across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
A mix of rain and snow will cause MVFR/IFR conditions across all
terminals through Tuesday morning before tapering off to
lingering showers in the afternoon. Some sleet is also possible
on the onset. The main concern for impactful snow is at
terminals KEVV/KOWB where a localized heavier band will be
capable of causing variable pavement accumulation and vsbys
below 1SM. Outside this snow band, any accumulation will likely
be confined to colder/elevated surfaces due to warm ground
temperatures. While vsbys will improve by Tuesday evening, low
cigs likely remain in place through the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be east to northeast between 5-10 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ081>091.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ076-086-
087-100-107.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /1 PM EST/ today for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KYZ014-015-
018>020.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DW
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 3:21 AM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502110921-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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