IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 8, 8:56 PM EST
592
FXUS63 KIWX 090156
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
856 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy light snow and freezing drizzle will gradually diminish
through the remainder of the late evening. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM EST time for northern
Indiana and NW Ohio.
- The combination of the recent mixed precipitation and
temperatures falling through the 20s will result in slick
conditions overnight.
- Sunday into Monday will be dry with variable cloud cover. The
next chance for snow will be Monday night into Tuesday, and
then again Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. Better chances
for accumulations will be with the Wed/Thu system. High
temperatures will be in the 20s and low to mid 30s, with lows
in the teens and 20s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
Mixed precipitation is winding down across the area this
evening. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect may be
cancelled a little bit early based on current trends. However,
slick road conditions will likely persist overnight as
temperatures drop into the low-mid 20s for most areas.
The last of the notable mixed precip is working across far NE
Indiana/NW Ohio as of 0145Z, likely enhanced by a progressive
mid level fgen axis. Initial thinking is that freezing drizzle
would be more prevalent with this band as it worked across
northeast Indiana. However, AMDAR soundings/sfc obs do suggest
just enough low level cold air accompanying shallow CAA induced
mixed layer to support mainly -SN precip type. Would suspect
some patchy freezing drizzle would be possible across northwest
Ohio for next hour or two (particularly far E/SE portions of the
forecast area) where saturation at temps supportive of ice
nucleation becomes more marginal.
An upstream sheared vort max will be tracking across the
southern Great Lakes overnight. Some synoptic contribution with
this wave, could provide a brief lake enhancement to snow shower
potential across far NW IN/SW Lower Michigan for perhaps a 3
hour window overnight as inversion heights briefly increase to
around 6k feet. Will likely end winter weather headlines around
03Z as last band of mixed precip exits NW Ohio. The Winter
Weather Advisory will be replaced by a Special Weather Statement
overnight to indicate the potential of slick roads continuing
into the morning hours as temperatures drop into the low-mid
20s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
Precipitation, as of 17z moving into the southwestern parts of
the CWA. This complicated set-up has a northern disturbance
moving eastward across the northern Great Lakes and a southern
disturbance moving eastward across the southern Great Lakes. Our
area will be affected by the southern disturbance and is
beginning to move into the area now and will continue to move
eastward through the day into this evening. A wintry mix is
expected with mostly rain for our far southern counties which
will be likely to start out as some freezing rain, even a few
rumbles of thunder would not be out of the question with decent
instability present. Current visible satellite also shows a few
embedded convective towers within the system.
As we move further north, there will be a transition of
freezing rain, sleet, and snow with all three occurring almost
concurrently in some locations. The better chances for the
freezing rain will be along the SR-30 corridor and especially
east of I-69. Up to about 0.15" of ice may accumulate. Snow
chances with some light accumulations will be expected across
southern MI counties with less than an inch snow totals
expected. Please take special precautions travelling this
afternoon and evening and if you do not absolutely need to
travel it would be advised to stay off of the roads as roadways,
especially untreated surfaces will become slick. If driving,
slow down and give yourself extra time to get to your
destination. Highs today will be in the low 30s with locations
over southern MI only getting into the upper 20s.
Tonight, temperatures will drop into the low to middle 20s. So
any areas that received some rainfall and residual moisture from
today's precipitation will re-freeze potentially causing
further slick conditions. This of course will be most likely on
untreated surfaces and it would be best to treat roads that look
wet as potentially icy. Use caution.
We get a break in precipitation Sunday and Monday with highs in
the upper 20s to low 30s with Monday just a smidge warmer ahead
of a weak disturbance that moves in Monday night and through
Tuesday afternoon this time bringing light snow across the area..
At this time, an inch or less of snowfall will be possible with
this system. Highs on Tuesday, in the upper 20s to low 30s, and
will be the theme at least through Friday. Another more
organized system originating in the Four Corners region and
swinging up northeastward out of northern TX into our area on
Wednesday night into Thursday. This looks to be a better
snowfall producing system and should bring higher snow totals.
Will be continuing to monitor this system over the coming days
to nail down the details and exact track of the system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
Lagging mid/upper level trough will continue to provide some
low level lift early this evening. A transition to fairly strong
low and mid level subsidence will follow for the mid to late
evening hours. Meanwhile, veering of low level flow will allow
for strengthening of low level cold advection across NW Indiana
over next few hours which should trend to support greater
likelihood of light snow/flurries as precipitation wanes. This
more delayed arrival of low level baroclinic zone at KFWA and
tendency to more shallow moisture profiles could support some
freezing drizzle for a few more hours this evening. As cold
advection/low level mixing increases somewhat late this evening,
cigs should gradually improve to MVFR for the overnight hours.
Will also be watching for the potential of some brief lake
enhancement to snow shower potential in the 06Z-09Z window as
shallow lake induced instability may interact with fairly strong
sheared vorticity max across the southern Great Lakes.
Confidence is somewhat low in this scenario and will lean toward
PROB30 mention at this time. MVFR cigs likely will persist into
Sunday morning, but should tend to favor VFR in afternoon as a
stronger shot of drier air builds in.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this
evening for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Marsili
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 8, 8:56 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502090156-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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