BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 7, 3:41 AM EST
542
FXUS61 KBOX 070841
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
341 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and windy weather today with highest gusts across the
higher elevations spots. Winds diminish tonight with colder
conditions into Saturday. A snow storm appears likely later
Saturday night into Sunday morning, with perhaps some mixing for
some locations towards the end of the storm, especially near
the south coast. Dry but cold weather returns Sunday night and
Monday. This active weather pattern may continue next week
depending on the track of a couple low pressures in the Tuesday
through Thursday time frame.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:
* Gusty west winds starting this morning, especially over the
higher elevations.
* Wind Advisory for central and western MA.
* Mainly dry conditions, with a chance for a snow shower or two
across western MA.
Cold air advection gets underway this morning, leading to gusty
winds later today. Wind Advisory continues for those areas
expected to see the highest gusts up around 45-50 mph.
Elsewhere, still anticipating peak gusts up to 35-40 mph.
High pressure to our west will be the main feature influencing
our weather today. mainly dry, but cannot completely rule out a
stray shower or two across western MA due to some enhanced
moisture from the Great Lakes. The upslope west flow may be
enough to squeeze out a shower or two. There will at least be
some diurnal clouds later today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions most of this time.
* Next storm may arrive late Saturday
High pressure building more directly overhead means less gusty
winds and dry weather. Slightly lower temperatures during this
time, which should help set the stage for another snow storm.
Timing of this storm could have it arrive later Saturday
afternoon into the evening. It could be slower, should this high
pressure linger longer than currently expectations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key messages:
* Snowstorm for southern New England Saturday night into Sunday
morning
* Brief quiet period for Monday
* Monitoring for more unsettled weather midweek
Details...
Not much has changed compared to the last discussion. A
shortwave from the Midwest will continue its movement east with
a strengthening surface low ahead of it. Latest guidance,
ensemble and deterministic, continued to show this low's center
passing over the 70/40 benchmark, indicating a strong chance for
significant snowfall across southern New England. GEFS members
remain in relatively good agreement regarding its track
near/south of the benchmark. As this track has shifted south,
the chances for mixed precipitation have diminished considerably
so snow is now the expected ptype in this system. However, this
track is still not set in stone and we are only just starting
to get into the higher resolution guidance for this system.
ECMWF ensemble members are still indicating some spread, but the
general solution still favors a passage over the benchmark.
Other ensembles and their members are in good agreement on this
track. There is a chance upcoming model runs might track the low
further south, which would decrease snowfall totals across the
region, particularly in the northern areas. Ensemble probs for
snowfall accumulations +6 inches are sitting around 40-50% by
the end of the day on Sunday for southern New England. Probs
increase to 80% and even 90% (GEPS) for +6 inches of total
accumulation in spots across the northern half of MA.
Temperatures Saturday night expected to remain in the low 20s,
once again favoring snow. Cold temperatures aloft from a
northern high have 925 mb temps mostly around -5C (starting
slightly cooler) and 850 mb temps also at and below -5C. Upper
air temps may elevate a degree or two just south of the region
due to WAA. PWATs around 0.5" or more across much of southern
New England will also encourage a healthier environment for
snow.
Colder air with a building ridge of high pressure will lead
temperatures to fall for Monday, but quiet and dry conditions
will return for a bit before the next possible storm(s) approach
during the week. Highs Monday are expected to range primarily
in the low 30s and high 20s and lows will return to the single
digits and teens for much of southern New England.
There are hints at another possible low or two passing just to
the south of the region once again for Tuesday into Wednesday,
then again into Thursday. The spread on both days across
ensembles and their members is still large, so nothing certain
quite yet; just something to continue to monitor. Generally, the
story going into the middle of next week is the unsettled,
active pattern is expected to continue. Details will become
clearer as time goes on.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Winds shifting to W/SW which will bring improvement to
cigs/vsbys, albeit slowly. IFR-LIFR should improve to mainly
MVFR toward or a bit after midnight. Then we should see mainly
VFR conditions finally arrive toward daybreak along with
increasing W/NW winds, gusting as high as 30-40 kt during the
day. Winds gradually subside tonight into Saturday, with VFR
continuing.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in trends, but lower confidence in
timing.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in trends, but lower confidence in
timing.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. SN.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN.
Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Overall high confidence through Saturday.
Winds increase this morning as mixing layer deepens. Strongest
gusts to gale force are expected on the waters off the eastern
MA coast, mainly across the open waters. Elsewhere, forecast
soundings indicate gusts overall will mainly be just short, but
may still be a few 35 knot wind gusts. Still thinking a strong
Small Craft Advisories are more appropriate for these waters.
Winds and seas subside tonight into Saturday as high pressure
builds into region from Great Lakes.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain, chance of snow.
Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of snow,
chance of rain. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of snow.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for MAZ002>022-026.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ002>004-
008>012-026.
RI...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-
236.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235-
237.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 7, 3:41 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502070841-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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