ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 3:24 AM EST
730
FXUS61 KILN 060824
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
324 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of rain will taper off through this morning as a cold
front moves through the region. High pressure and a drier
airmass are expected for tonight and Friday. Precipitation
chances will return on Saturday as another weather disturbance
moves through the Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will shift off to our east
through the day as a cold front pushes southeast across the
Ohio Valley. In weak WAA ahead of the front, occasional light
showers/drizzle will continue through much of the morning
before tapering off from the northwest as drier air moves in
behind the front. Temperatures have been slow to rise so far
this morning across the area with temperatures at or below
freezing along and just south of the I-70 corridor. As surface
winds become more southerly through mid morning, temperatures
across our north should slowly climb above freezing. Will leave
current advisory as is and monitor trends. Will range highs
today from the low 40s northwest to near 60 in our far
southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build southeast into our region
tonight into Friday. This will lead to a decreasing cloud trend
heading into tonight. Mostly sunny skies are expected Friday
morning. Some mid level clouds will spread in from the north
through the afternoon as some mid level energy moves across the
Great Lakes. Lows tonight will be in mid to upper 20s with
highs on Friday ranging from the mid 30s north to the mid 40s
south.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active pattern expected throughout the next week. Subtle H5
troughing will continue to shift to the east and be replaced with
zonal flow. A shortwave will ripple through this flow on Saturday
and help generate a low pressure system that will bring additional
pcpn to the Ohio Valley. Friday night is expected to remain dry
through the bulk of the night, with the heavier precip arriving
Saturday afternoon. Thermal profiles will be important to monitor
for p-type. Some solutions (such as the NAM) are keeping temps
cooler on Saturday and thus produce more freezing rain, especially
around I-70. However, more solutions are trending warmer with the
near-surface temps on Saturday and thus result in primarily rain,
but will have to monitor trends in CAMs for assessing p-type.
Temperatures will be near or just below seasonal normals on Sunday,
with a break in pcpn expected. Drier conditions expected into Monday
as well, but a southern tracking system is expected to result in a
wintry-mix late Monday night into Tuesday. Once again, freezing rain
may be possible for some of our southern counties near and south of
the OH River. Snow is expected just north of this area, and it is
possible that locations near I-70 will receive barely any precip
from this particular system. Hardly any break is observed between
this system and the next one, which is expected to bring another
wave of wintry precip to our counties Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue along
and southeast of the I-71 corridor through the predawn hours.
Temperatures have been slow to rise so far, so some freezing
rain will remain possible at the northern TAf sites over the
next few hours.
IFR to locally MVFR cigs will continue to lower down into
LIFR/IFR over the next couple of hours. Pcpn will eventually
taper off from the northwest later this morning as a cold front
moves through. IFR cigs will gradually lift into MVFR behind
the front later this morning into early afternoon. Winds will
also swing around to the west with the frontal passage late
this morning with some gusts to around 20 knot or so possible
into this afternoon. Drier air will move in late in the TAF
period, leading to clearing skies and VFR conditions.
LLWS will be possible through daybreak this morning.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected Saturday through
Sunday morning. Gusty winds are possible on Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074.
KY...None.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
INZ050-058-059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...JGL
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 3:24 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502060824-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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