JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 7, 5:20 AM EST
342
FXUS63 KJKL 071020
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
520 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures are forecast for most places on Saturday,
with cooler readings the remainder of the days during the next
week.
- An active weather pattern will continue into next week, with a flood
risk, and the potential for wintry precipitation at times for
some locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 520 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2025
09Z sfc analysis shows high pressure quickly and briefly building
into Kentucky from the northwest. This has shunted the last of
the rain and showers from the area shortly after midnight and with
time allowed the Flood Advisories and Warnings - outside of the
main stem river points - to be lifted. In addition, temporary
drier air, inbound with the sfc high, has helped to push the
clouds south out of the northern parts of the area early this
morning. This may allow for some valley fog development during
these pre-dawn hours. Temperatures vary from the low 30s north to
the lower 40s in the far southeast. Meanwhile, amid light
northerly winds, dewpoints vary similarly from the upper 20s
northwest to the upper 30s in the far southeast.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict fast and increasingly zonal flow at mid
levels over Kentucky through Saturday and beyond. Within this air
stream various, mostly weak, shortwaves will move through the
Ohio Valley. The first of these pass this afternoon before a lull
in the energy at mid levels ensues into early Saturday. This will
be followed by a more extensive wave moving into the region during
the day, Saturday, in conjunction with a 3h jet streak darting
past west to east, just north of the Ohio River. The still small
model spread aloft supported using the NBM as the starting point
for the forecast grids, though with some adjustments for PoPs
tonight and Saturday in order to include the latest CAM ideas.
Sensible weather features a continuation of fast moving systems
passing through the area with more rain showers a good bet. A sfc
wave to the southwest will support a resurgence of moisture into
the area later today with the atmosphere becoming humid enough for
some sprinkles around in the evening, followed by showers by dawn
as the air mass further saturates. The frontal boundary will lift
north during the day on Saturday as the developing sfc low moves
toward northern Kentucky placing the JKL CWA in the fast moving
system's warm sector for the afternoon. This will prompt more
scattered showers for the area into the evening - along with a
likely line of them dropping southeast with time as the low's cold
front settles into our area by evening. Cannot rule out some
thunder occurring with the showers in the afternoon and evening
but instability seems to be a limiting factor, for now, and as
such it was left out of the forecast grids.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adjusting the PoPs this evening through Saturday per the latest
CAMs guidance. Did not deviate too far from temperatures aside
from allowing for a bit of terrain distinction to show up in the
northern and clearer parts of the area early this morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 446 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2025
An active weather pattern is on the horizon for the extended period.
The first of these systems will be moving through the forecast area
at the start of the period. Prior to the start of the period, a warm
front moved through the CWA and is to the north of the area. At the
start of the period, the area will be in the warm sector ahead of an
approaching cold front. As the system continues to eject northeast
through the Ohio Valley, the associated cold front will track toward
the CWA before crossing through the region overnight Saturday into
Sunday morning and quickly exiting the area by early Sunday
afternoon. Due to FROPA occurring largely overnight, thunderstorms
aren't expected as instability is lacking. However, forecast PWs
around 1.20 inches and efficient rainfall coupled with recent
rainfall could lead to hydro issues for the overnight time period.
Current forecast QPF is expected to be between 0.30" to 0.60" of
rain with the highest amounts painted across the central portion of
the CWA.
Weak high pressure builds back into the region for Sunday afternoon
but will quickly break down as another passing wave develops over
the Ozarks and skirts the southern half of the CWA for Monday. As
colder air filters into the region Monday afternoon, rain will
transition to snow along the northern fringe of the precipitation
shield but this quick moving feature will quickly eject out of the
area and be replaced with another system that'll quickly move out of
Texas. The associated warm front is expected to lift through the
forecast area overnight Monday into Tuesday. A rain snow mix is
expected overnight that'll continue through early Tuesday afternoon
before transitioning to all rain. From here, model confidence begins
to degrade as the ECMWF and NBM keeps constant PoP chances over the
area and the GFS provides a break in the PoP on Wednesday before
having another system move into the region for Thursday. Due to a
lack in forecast confidence, opted to not deviate much from the NBM;
which is a mixed back of wintry precipitation. Rain will largely
dominate aside from snow chances Wednesday morning and through much
of the day Thursday before going back to all rain and then quickly
transitioning back to all snow by Friday. With these snow showers,
accumulation will be possible and possible highlight criteria on
Thursday. Also, through the period, the constant threat of showers
will lead to instances of high water. Models are hinting at liquid
equivalent of upwards of 4.00" for areas mainly south of the Mountain
Parkway with lesser amounts toward the Ohio River from 06Z/Tuesday
through 12Z/Friday. Lastly, high temperatures are forecast to range
from the mid-30s to mid-40s during the day to mid-20s to mid-30s
overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2025
Aviation conditions have returned to VFR across the terminals,
just recently, and this more benign weather with no restrictions
should hold through the period. Winds will be light and generally
from the north through the rest of the night and into the day,
Friday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 7, 5:20 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502071020-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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