BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 12:42 PM EST
315
FXUS61 KBOX 041742
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1242 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and blustery conditions will return today following the
passage of a cold front. An active weather pattern develops
later this week as a couple systems move in on Thursday and
again late Saturday into early Sunday. Details are still not
fully refined, but both systems may bring a variety of wintry
precipitation types, including some ice.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...
* Turning colder and becoming windy this afternoon
* Afternoon temps falling through the 30s with some upper 20s
Details...
Intensifying low pressure lifting north of the Canadian
Maritimes will combine with a 1040+ mb high pressure over the
northern Plains. This will result in an increasing pressure
gradient. Northwest winds should gust to between 25 and 35 mph
with a few gusts of 40+ mph. In addition...strong cold advection
with 850T dropping to between -13C/-14C by late in the day will
result in falling afternoon temps. So despite partial
sunshine...morning high temps in the upper 30s to the lower 40s
will be falling through the 30s with even a few upper 20s by
late afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:
* Colder overnight with the passage of a cold front and a cold,
dry Wednesday ahead of the next system.
The cold front passes through during the nighttime hours,
leaving colder than normal temperatures in its wake. Strong high
pressure builds in behind the cold front, favoring clearer
skies overnight that will help bring lows into the single digits
and teens across the region. 925 mb temperatures behind this
front sit around -15C by 06z Wednesday. NW winds will also aid
in the continued CAA. This cold air will persist throughout the
day Wednesday as highs sit mostly in the 20s and low 30s across
southern New England. Dry conditions persist before the next
system begins to move in Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* High pressure yields dry, but colder than normal weather Wed/Wed
evening.
* More active weather then develops for Thu and then again for late
Sat into early Sun. With a storm track over or very close to SNE,
favoring ptype of a wintry mix (including a period of ice
possible) changing to rain for both systems. However, details
including exact low track and precip type amts and changeovers are
still uncertain for both events.
* With baroclinic zone remaining near the region, a roller-coaster
for temps: starting off colder than normal Wed, then near to above
by late Thu. Brief cooldown Fri/Sat before modifying again by Sun
into Mon.
Details:
Tricky synoptic pattern expected this week. The first feature to
focus on is a high-latitude mid level block over the Pacific
Ocean. This should have the effect of shoving a nearly zonal mid
level flow to the south of New England. These patterns
typically cause forecast issues with both track and timing. Both
of those aspects will be critical for determining precipitation
type Thursday.
Latest guidance suite depicting a snow-to-rain scenario Thursday,
with a period of sleet and/or freezing rain thrown in for good
measure. The lack of a high pressure over SE Canada is a strong
indication that low level cold air will not hold for too long.
The progressive nature of this low pressure also not favoring a
large snowfall. The margin for error is really small, as only a
subtle change of a couple of degrees will make a significant
difference. It will be at least another day before these crucial
details come into better focus. The one thing there is high
confidence in is getting measurable precipitation some time
Thursday.
High pressure should maintain dry weather Friday into Saturday.
The looking at another low pressure to approach some time from
late Saturday into Sunday. The track is rather close to our
region, so likely looking at another precipitation mix.
Temperature-wise, anticipating bouts of colder and warmer
weather as each low pressure passes by, but nothing very unusual
for early February.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This afternoon and tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. NW wind gusts of 25-30 knots with a few gusts up to 35
knots into the first half of the weekend. Wind gusts should
start to diminish by late evening and especially during the
overnight hours.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...High Confidence.
VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 knots Wed becoming light/calm from the SW
Wed night.
Thursday...Moderate Confidence.
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions overspread the region from
southwest to northeast Thu AM. This will be associated with the
arrival of snow...which will change to sleet/freezing rain &
eventually some rain along the coastal plain. Generally expect
1-4" of snow/sleet followed by a light glaze of ice possible
especially across the interior.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Saturday/...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance FZRA.
Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Overall high confidence through Wed.
We upgraded to Gale Warnings for many of our waters this
afternoon and evening across many open waters.
Freezing spray possible across most of the coastal and outer
waters for tonight into Wednesday as winds pick up and
temperatures drop. Strong CAA later today into this evening
coupled with a modest northwest LLJ should allow for a period of
gale force wind gusts. Freezing spray is also expected tonight.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain, chance of snow.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-
235>237.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>234-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Frank/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Frank/Hrencecin
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 12:42 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502041742-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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