IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 2:20 PM EST
388
FXUS63 KIWX 021920
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
220 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very mild Monday with most locations exceeding 50 degrees.
- Dry weather through Tuesday night.
- A period of rain and a chance (40-60%) of freezing rain
Wednesday and Wednesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
In its wake of this morning's clipper, plenty of stratus but there
is a small area of clearing over Illinois. This will sneak into a
few lucky western areas prior to sunset. A warm front is working its
way through our area as well, ushering in temperatures in the 40s
and even a few 50s over central and southern IL and IN. Given
lingering stratus and current temperatures, those in far south-
central Michigan will be trapped in the 30s while those south of US
24 bask in the 40s. Fear not, however, as warm air advection at
850mb prevails overnight keeping lows relatively mild to date and
provides a spring board for Monday's highs near 50 across southern
Michigan and soaring into the mid-50s south of US 24.
Another clipper tracks through the upper Great Lakes late in the day
Monday and spreads a cold front through overnight. Global guidance
favors some light rain with this while high resolution guidance
favors dry conditions owing to poor Pacific moisture transport and
forcing aimed primarily across northern MI and into Ontario. Have
maintained the existing dry forecast.
A fairly zonal upper-level jet takes hold through the Central CONUS
in the days ahead, with a gradual infiltration of cold air as
shortwaves are ejected from a northeast Pacific trough. Midweek,
shortwaves are tracking through the mid-Mississippi valley and the
upper Great Lakes. Low pressure lifts through the Ohio Valley and
brings improved moisture transport and warm air advection into the
forecast area. Features are disjointed, however, which decreases
confidence in the start time of rain or freezing rain. Temperature
profiles vary notably as well among guidance. The existing forecast
favors rain for reasons described in the morning AFD. These points
are still valid, especially the lack of reinforcing cold air needed
for prolonged FZRA. Yet 12z forecast soundings depict FZRA as the
dominant precipitation type Wednesday night, especially in an around
our typical cold spots of Hillsdale, MI and Angola, IN. Given the
uncertainty with time of arrival for precipitation and the overall
unfavorable synoptic pattern typically found for our ice events,
have tried to stay close to the existing forecast while fine-tuning
the possible location for a period of freezing rain.
Another low pressure systems looks to pass through the Midwest
by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
LIFR to IFR conditions behind this morning's shortwave and mixed
precipitation should improve a bit later this afternoon and
evening. Areas of BR/FG formation and stratus then likely fill
back in overnight into Monday morning given light winds and
low dewpoint depressions within a shallow inversion.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 2:20 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502021920-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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