CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 9:38 PM EST
597
FXUS61 KCLE 040238
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
938 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A sharp cold front will slide southward across the area this
evening which will bring back the colder temperatures. High
pressure briefly builds in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Low
pressure moves through the region late Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM EST Update...
Patchy fog, low stratus, and patchy to areas of drizzle have
developed just behind a cold front that is sagging south into
the CWA. The fog/drizzle may significantly reduce visibility in
some spots so a Special Weather Statement is in effect through
the rest of the evening; can't rule out needing to expand it a
tier or two of counties west/south. As of now, temperatures
should remain above freezing for most of the duration of the
drizzle so the chance of freezing drizzle is relatively low at
this point. With that being said, temps may dip into the 20s
early Tuesday morning so will need to monitor the potential for
slick spots on untreated surfaces as temperatures decrease
overnight.
Previous Discussion...
Don't get your hopes up that the very mild temperatures this
afternoon are going to continue. Mother nature is going to bring
a weather whiplash from the mid to upper 50s today back to the
20s and sub freezing weather for the next few days. A sharp cold
front is just on our northern doorstep near the Canadian shore
of Lake Erie as of 4 pm and will slide through this evening. It
will be relatively pleasant early this evening ahead of the cold
front but temperatures will tumble into the 30s later this
evening fairly quick. Overall conditions post frontal this
evening into the late night will become somewhat dreary with
very low stratus as well misty or light fog. There is some
limited and shallow low level moisture behind the front that may
result in some drizzle or light showers this evening but
measurable amounts will be very light or maybe a trace. There is
a small potential for some light freezing drizzle or mist late
this evening and that time window will only be for several hours
after 10 pm through the predawn morning hours. It is also
noteworthy to mention that even though today was very mild in
the 50s, the ground is still very cold and actually frozen
hovering around 32F at last check across the entire area. Any
dampness or light moisture that materializes late this evening
or overnight may be sneaky and cause some patchy slick spots on
any untreated roads and elevated bridges.
There also could be some lingering lake effect rain to snow
showers for the primary Snowbelt through early tomorrow morning.
Any lake effect appears to be very scattered and light. High
pressure will build in from the upper Great Lakes region on
Tuesday but the overcast skies will continue and temperatures in
the upper 20s to near 30 for highs tomorrow. A cold and
overcast Tuesday night is expected with temperatures dropping
into the upper teens and lower 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The potential is increasing for noteworthy, impactful icing
Wednesday evening into early Thursday as a weak but fairly moisture
laden system tracks through the Ohio Valley.
Starting off Wednesday morning, a mid/upper longwave trough over the
eastern Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS with a large area of
Canadian high pressure at the surface below it will feed an ENE flow
of low-level cold air across the region. Mid-level heights will rise
through the day ahead of a southern stream mid/upper shortwave
trough ejecting from the southern Rockies into the central Plains.
An associated surface low will develop over the Mid Mississippi
Valley Wednesday afternoon on the nose of a 120+ knot H3 jet streak
before crossing the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday night and offshore
of the vicinity of New Jersey by Thursday. The aforementioned broad
surface high over eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. will be slow
to move east ahead of this low/shortwave trough, keeping the ENE low-
level flow in place longer to allow for some cold air damming. As
the low approaches from the Mississippi Valley late Wednesday
afternoon and evening, the aforementioned upper jet dynamics will
force a low-level jet response in the 850-925 mb layer that will
strengthen to 30-40 knots Wednesday night. This will cause an
overrunning situation, with warm/moist advection and isentropic
ascent overtop the low-level cold air. The result will be a classic
set-up for snow to change to freezing rain.
In terms of timing and impacts, the system has stayed on the colder
trend since the relatively flat shortwave prevents a faster surge of
warm air. This will lead to slightly higher amounts of freezing
rain, especially in NW Ohio and in the higher terrain of the
central highlands and far NE Ohio/NW PA. Ground temperatures are
still below freezing, so this will help to accelerate ice accretion
on untreated surfaces. Expect a band of light to moderate snow to
develop on the initial surge of warm air advection/isentropic ascent
late Wednesday afternoon before the warm nose transitions the snow
to sleet and freezing rain from SW to NE through the evening. This
looks to set up a 6 to 8 hour window of icing, roughly 00-08Z
Thursday in NW and north central Ohio and 03-11Z Thursday in NE Ohio
and NW PA. The low-level flow should finally turn southerly by
sunrise Thursday to allow for a transition to plain rain before the
mid-level dry slot ends the precip by mid to late morning.
Probabilities are increasing for 0.10 to 0.25 inches of ice
accretion in NW Ohio and near the central highlands Wednesday
evening into early Thursday morning, with a few hundredths to up to
0.10 inches elsewhere. The higher terrain of NE Ohio and NW PA could
see locally up to 0.25 inches as well. This will lead to very slick
conditions overnight with a heavy glaze of ice on untreated roads,
walkways, vehicles, and other surfaces. For areas that see closer to
that 0.25 inch amount, at least minor damage to trees and powerlines
is possible. Icing is far less common than snow in northern Ohio
and NW PA, so impacts could be elevated with this system.
Once the rain moves out Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions and
mild temperatures are expected in the dry slot with highs in the low
to mid 40s, with near 50 along the U.S. 30 corridor. This comes
after highs in the upper 20s/low 30s Wednesday and lows in the upper
20s Wednesday night. Temperatures will be rising Wednesday night, so
used a non-diurnal temperature curve. Temperatures will crash into
the upper teens to low 20s Thursday night behind the trailing cold
front, so any standing water will lead to black ice formation.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid/upper troughing will briefly reload across the Great Lakes in
the wake of the system Friday along with surface high pressure
bringing cold, dry conditions. However, another southern stream
shortwave will cross the Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes
Saturday into Sunday, and this one looks to better phase with the
northern stream leading to a potentially deepening surface low.
Plenty of uncertainty with this system, so at this time, just have
gradually increasing PoPs Friday night and Saturday for rain/snow.
Colder and drier conditions should return Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Cold front will track southeast across the area tonight,
ushering a chance of scattered light rain showers into NE OH/NW
PA. Patchy fog and low stratus are likely near and just behind
the front; ceilings will rapidly fall to IFR and possibly LIFR
for several hours tonight with MVFR/IFR (and possibly localized
LIFR) visibilities likely in patchy fog for a shorter duration
this evening/tonight. Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR at
most terminals Tuesday morning with VFR likely developing at
southern/western terminals by late afternoon.
Winds will shift to the north/northwest before becoming mainly
northwesterly Tuesday morning. Wind speeds will be in the 6 to
12 knot range.
Outlook...Non-VFR may linger non-VFR possible in low ceilings
from lake effect clouds into Tuesday night. Non-VFR expected to
return late Wednesday into Thursday in widespread rain and
snow. A brief period of freezing rain is possible Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. Non-VFR may return with
rain/snow showers on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
N to NW winds will gradually increase to 5-15 knots tonight and
Tuesday, with locally up to 20 knots in the eastern basin.
Winds will then lighten and become E Tuesday night before
increasing to 5- 15 knots Wednesday. Winds then turn SW and
increase to 15-25 knots by Thursday behind a low pressure
system, with W winds of 15-25 knots continuing through Friday
morning. Winds will then veer all the way to the E by Saturday
while increasing again after a brief lull.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
due to extensive ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/15
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Garuckas
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 9:38 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502040238-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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