LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 3:49 AM EST
106
FXUS63 KLMK 040849
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
349 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Much cooler today with a cloudy start and partial clearing this
afternoon.
* Showers and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday into Thursday.
Severe and flooding risks cannot be ruled out, but forecast
confidence remains low.
* Another chance of rain, and possibly storms, this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 349 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
Based on the leading edge of the stratus in GOES imagery, the cold
front has crossed the Ohio River and is nearing the WK/BG Parkways.
The boundary will continue its southward push, getting into
Tennessee by sunrise. Fairly stout cold air advection will give us
breezy northerly winds, and temps will continue to fall through at
least mid-morning.
Sfc ridge builds in quickly this afternoon, so expect a modest
recovery in temps and gradual clearing from north to south. Calendar
day max temps for today already occurred at midnight LST, but it
will be a close call whether our "daytime" highs are set at 12Z or
with the normal diurnal cycle this afternoon.
Clouds return from SW to NE late this evening as low-level flow
takes on more of a ESE component. We'll start to see saturation
first around 800mb after midnight, and possibly just enough below
that to support some sprinkles or drizzle in the pre-dawn hours on
Wednesday. If there is precip, thermal profiles are just warm enough
to keep it all liquid.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
Wednesday, upper flow will be mostly zonal over the CONUS with some
mild ridging east of an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, high pressure begins the day over the
Great Lakes with pockets of low pressure west of the Rockies. This
will result in easterly surface winds over the Lower Ohio Valley
early in the day, but off the surface near the 850 mb level, Gulf
moisture begins to be carried into the region on westerly flow.
Precipitation chance increase during the day. Many will likely see
periods of drizzle increasing to light rain showers. Model soundings
show periods of dry air near the surface and above the moisture
layer in the DGZ, so it could take some time to saturate the column
enough for precipitation. With cloud cover overhead and east winds
over most of the CWA, high temperatures along and north of
Interstate 64 are expected to reach into the low to mid 40s. Farther
south the 50s are expected, but with south winds and warm air
advection possibly making it into southern Kentucky, areas near the
Tennessee border could see the mid 60s.
Wednesday night, as the surface features slide east by zonal flow,
the surface low over the west begins to work into the Ozarks. This
will force winds over the CWA to veer towards the south, increasing
WAA and moisture. During this time, a 55 knot low level jet will
slide over the CWA, resulting in more steady rainfall during the
overnight hours. Temperatures will only drop slightly overnight with
the WAA in place.
Thursday, a cold front drops southeast towards southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, but before it arrives, WAA is expected to drive
highs into the 60s with a few low 70s possible in southern Kentucky.
Rain showers will likely last for most of the day but will begin to
end as the front pushes south through the region during the
afternoon/evening hours.
Behind the front, northwest flow ushers in cooler temperatures with
lows Thursday night returning to the low 30s to low 40s as skies
clear from the northwest as high pressure works into the area.
Friday is expected to be a mostly sunny day with temperatures in the
mid 50s to low 70s.
Heading into the weekend, the next low pressure system/cold front
will bring the next chance of rain to the region. Currently, model
agreement is good with this system. We can expect precipitation
chances to begin increasing Friday night, and as southern flow
begins to strengthen Saturday, temperatures warm into the mid 50s to
low 70s before the cold front lowers them to the low 40s to low 50s
on Sunday. The cooling trend continues into the beginning of next
with with highs returning to the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
Cold front is quite evident on GOES fog/stratus products as it makes
its way into southern Indiana. Will initialize TAFs with VFR
conditions and winds from the west around 10 kt, but look for a
quick shift to NNW with MVFR ceilings dropping below 2000 feet with
the fropa around 08-10Z. Not expecting much in the way of gusts but
winds will be a solid 12-15 kt through about midday. Probabilities
for drizzle are quite low. Better chance of IFR cigs but still too
low to mention in the TAFs. By early afternoon the stratus deck
should scatter out, with VFR condiitions for the remainder of the
TAF period. Winds will diminish to 10 kt or less from the NE as the
cold advection eases.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 3:49 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502040849-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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