LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 5:42 AM CST ...New AVIATION...
509
FXUS64 KLIX 271142
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
542 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Stalled boundary is just off to our northwest with moderate rain
and isolated thunderstorms impacting southwest MS and adjacent LA
parishes. This appears to be associated with the couple jet as the
rain coverage drops off rather significantly just to our west.
Today will be cloudy but not anticipating a lot of rain with rain
chances really backing off considerably as you get down to and more
so south of I-12. Southern stream energy embedded in the mostly
zonal flow aloft will quickly be pulling out and that is partially
why our front has stalled. A disturbance in the northern stream
moving through the central CONUS will drop across the Mid MS Valley
later this morning and through TN by afternoon. This will finally
give the front a push south and that may finally aid a few showers
dipping south but overall most locations along and south of I-10 in
SELA will struggle to see much rain. Rain may completely slides out
of the area by early this afternoon with drier air sliding back
into the region.
Tuesday and Wednesday remain fairly quiet as the pattern begins to
amplify over the CON US. The deep closed low currently along the
southern CA coast will slowly work east towards the 4 Corners
Tuesday and Wednesday while a deep L/W trough sets up over eastern
Canada and through the northern half of the east Coast. We should
see weak ridging across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
keep use dry Tuesday but there may be a few light showers Wednesday
across the northwest as moisture starts to return thanks to the sfc
high working into the eastern Gulf. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Medium range models continue to struggle with the extended portion
of the forecast but there has been a noticeable trend faster over
the last 24 to 36 hours. Typically with such a large closed low I
would lean slower but a couple of things noticed in the ensembles
and using cluster analysis. There appears to be more suggesting that
the closed low will not be stuck in a blocking pattern like a Rex
block. The ridge never truly builds directly north of it. It tries
to work over and around to connect with the weak ridge southeast
just ahead of the low but it ever does. Part of that is because it
appears that there is just enough energy in the northern stream
eroding that area to the northeast of the southwest CONUS low.
Second the medium range models show the mid lvl jet rounding the
base Tuesday night and Wednesday with the core just downstream. This
should help the low slide more east and then northeast with the low
over the panhandles of TX and OK by Thursday evening. This induces
cyclogenesis over TX Wednesday night and Thursday with the sfc low
quickly deepening and ejecting northeast into MO overnight. With so
much energy in the mid lvls lifting northeast through eastern TX and
into the Mid MS Valley we will likely see a decent band of
convection developing along a prefrontal trough possibly moving into
the CWA around midnight Thursday night. This is a rather dynamic
system and it could bring the a decent risk of severe weather to the
Lower MS Valley but with the low likely moving northeast into the
central Plains thanks to ridging across the southeastern CONUS we
may be on the far southern end of any type of line of convection.
Obviously a rather potent LL jet develops in response to the strong
dynamics but we look to be on the tail edge of that jet and thus not
the best location for LL convergence. Convection likely will surge
east thanks to cold pooling and the amount of mid lvl forcing moving
through, even with the disturbance opening up as it moves through
the Mid MS Valley and towards the Ohio Valley.
A line of showers and thunderstorms may quickly move through with
much of the rain moving out of the area near or slightly after
midday. That said the cold front will still be lagging back and
may not move through till later that night. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Showers are impacting some of the terminals, mainly BTR, MCB and
now HDC. ASD will likely begin to see some light shower around
15/16z. However the greatest impact will be cigs which will impact
all terminals. The previous 3 mentioned terminals are currently or
will very shortly see cigs around 500-1k ft and these low clouds
will slowly sink south through the morning. Once terminals move
into IFR cigs they probably will remain that way till late this
afternoon or early evening. Cigs will improve to MVFR but still
around 1-1500 ft. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail ahead of a weak front.
This front finally gets another nudge southward moving through late
this afternoon and early this evening. Winds become more northerly
tonight behind it with high pressure building in and becoming
centered over the region tomorrow afternoon. High pressure shifts
east Wednesday allowing light onshore flow to return. Southeast
winds will begin to pick up Wednesday night as low pressure begins
to develop over central TX with the next front moving
through possibly Friday. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 61 41 64 48 / 70 0 0 0
BTR 67 46 68 52 / 60 0 0 0
ASD 67 45 67 50 / 40 0 0 0
MSY 66 49 64 52 / 20 0 0 0
GPT 65 45 63 48 / 40 0 0 0
PQL 68 44 67 48 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 5:42 AM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501271142-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!