LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 5:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION...
503
FXUS64 KLIX 262342
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
542 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through 12Z Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
There is a cutoff low over central coastal California directing
upper level southern flow across the area in a zonal flow pattern.
At the sruface we are in a slight low pressure trough between high
pressure to our west over the southern plains and to the east over
northern Florida. This low pressure is combining with an upper
shortwave and acting as a funnel bringing moist gulf air into the
area and building a case for rain moving across the area late
tonight through tomorrow morning. The bulk of the rain will be
north of the I-10/12 line with most liketly totals there just shy
of an inch and south of that line at a quarter inch or less. With
this setup of flow regimes high temps tomorrow should be in the
low 60s, normal for this time of year. As the shortwave moves on
past us winds will turn around coming out of the north and bring
slightly cooler temperatures into the 40s which is normal for this
time of year. About the only impact to be concerned about is the
possibility of some foggy conditions on Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(12Z Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
Models seem to agree that we will remain in largely zonal flow with
an upstream ridge axis across the southern plains on Tuesday and
Wednesday. That upstream ridge axis will keep a surface high draped
over the area Tuesday and Wednesday with the expected NVA across the
area. All of that indicated large scale sinking and a slight
increase in temperatures from Tuesday and Wednesday as the
ridge axis moves closer to the area while keeping us dry.
Beyond Wednesday, the forecast starts to become more uncertain,
especially with what happens with the trough over the SW CONUS.
Looking at ensemble clustering, there is a lot of variability in the
timing of the shortwave as well as the overall orientation of the
shortwave. Much of the differences actually seems to be with the
preceding ridging mentioned in the prior paragraph out ahead of the
shortwave with its strength. The stronger the ridge is, the slower
the shortwave will be, but the weaker the ridge, the faster the
shortwave. Although, the forecast is pretty uncertain, the trend
seems to be a stronger ridge and a slower trough with the newest
guidance. This goes without saying, but timing and placement is
everything in these dynamic setups. Diurnal times matter for
instability and placement of the associated low-level jet (LLJ) is
key to for shear purposes. With the uncertainty, can't get into
specifics at this time, but expect showers and thunderstorms from
Thursday evening through Friday night. Hopefully guidance will start
to come to a consensus in the coming days so we can get into the
timing and severity details.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
The terminals closest to the boundary...KMCB/KBTR/KHDC...are
reporting MVFR ceilings with bases around FL025, while remaining
terminals are reporting mid-level clouds. Likely to see lowering
of ceilings area-wide, but probably no changes in category prior
to about 06z. MVFR to IFR conditions expected between 06z and 15z,
with some improvement beyond 15z Monday. It may be Tuesday before
widespread VFR conditions return.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
Winds out of the south at 5-10 kt will become norhtherly with the
passage later monday of a weak front. Later in the week we see
further change to winds form the east and building gradually to 15
kt. It is possible that some low-grade headlines will be necessary
by the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 51 60 40 64 / 90 60 0 0
BTR 55 67 45 68 / 80 50 0 0
ASD 54 68 45 65 / 50 60 0 0
MSY 54 66 48 63 / 40 50 0 0
GPT 52 65 45 63 / 50 60 0 0
PQL 52 68 43 67 / 50 60 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DS
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 5:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501262342-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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