JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 6:20 PM EST
495
FXUS63 KJKL 022320
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
620 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High water and flooding will continue to move downstream on
rivers early this week.
- Above normal temperatures will prevail this week.
- Widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected to
arrive midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 227 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
Mid-level clouds will continue to dissipate heading into the
evening, as a warm front continues to push north. High temperatures
will be close to current observations in the upper 50s to low 60s
across the area. Breezy southwesterly winds could gust as high as 25-
30 mph this afternoon before tapering off around sunset. Tonight,
partly cloudy skies with lows in the low to mid 40s can be expected.
A shortwave moves across the Great Lakes Monday. Breezy
southwesterly winds will continue to advect warm air northward,
driving highs up into the mid to upper 60s, a good 20 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Heading into Monday night the system
along the Great Lakes may produce some light drizzle heading into
Tuesday morning. Otherwise, lows in the upper 40s to low 50s with
increasing clouds can be expected.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
The period is expected to begin with an upper level trough from
eastern Canada into the Northeast and mid Atlantic with a
shortwave trough moving through this trough over the eastern Great
Lakes to Appalachians with additional shortwaves upstream over
western Canada. Also at that point upper level ridging is
expected to be centered in the Caribbean and extend across the
Gulf and into portions of the Plains. A weak upper level low is
expected to be centered a little south the Lower Rio Grande
Valley at that point while an upper level ow is expected off the
southwest BC coast and Pacific Northwest with an associated
shortwave south nearing the west coast of the Conus. At the
surface, an area should be over or northeast of the Maritimes
early Tuesday with a trialing cold front/baroclinic zone off the
Northeast U.S. coast to the mid Atlantic states to eastern KY to
the Southern Plains to the front range of the Rockies and then on
into the western Conus.
Tuesday and Tuesday night, the trough axis should shift east of
the east on Tuesday with weak upper ridging shifting east across
the area. Behind that the first in a series of disturbances moving
around the trough along the west Coast and then tracking across
the Four Corners region and into the Plains should arrive in the
Plains and near the mid MS Valley. Meanwhile, at the surface, the
frontal zone should sag south of the Lower OH Valley and eastern
KY on Tuesday with high pressure nosing into the OH Valley and
Great Lakes behind it. However, as low pressure organizes to the
lee of the Rockies and then tracks into OK and nears the Ozarks,
the front will lift north as a warm front which nears eastern KY
late Tuesday night. Limited moisture is expected to be associated
with the cold front sagging across eastern KY on Tuesday, but may
be sufficient for a bit of drizzle or patchy light rain as the low
level flow briefly becomes upslope. PW should only be around 0.6
to 0.7 per 12Z LREF mean Tuesday morning to midday before falling
a bit with the sfc high nosing in. However, as the boundary lifts
north as a warm front on Tuesday night, PW should reach the 0.8 to
1 inch range per 12Z LREF mean.
Wednesday through Thursday night, shortwave that will have
approach the mid MS Valley late Tue night should track across the
OH Valley and Commonwealth on Wed with another shortwave moving
from the western trough across the Central Conus and into the MS
and OH Valleys approaching the area quickly behind it. This trough
should move into the eastern Great Lakes to OH Valley region by
late Wed night passing east and northeast of eastern KY on Thu.
Meanwhile, the surface low pressure system should track to the
Great Lakes in response by late Wed and Wed night and then to the
St Lawrence Valley on Thursday, reaching the Maritimes on Thu
night. This will send the warm front/baroclinic zone north across
the Commonwealth on Wednesday while the trailing cold front nears
the OH Valley late Wed night, dropping across eastern KY late on
Thu into Thu evening. A sfc high pressure ridge should nose into
eastern KY for Thu night. PW should continue to increase as the
warm front lifts north and the sfc system tracks to the northwest
with PW expected to be about 0.9 to 1.1 inches per 12Z LREF mean
early on Wed afternoon and peaking in the 1 to 1.2 inch range also
per the 12Z LREF mean late Wed afternoon and evening though this
guidance has it remaining at least in the 0.9 to 1.1 inch range
Wed night before gradually dropping off behind the cold front on
to less than 0.5 inches Thu night.
Friday to Sunday, rather zonal flow is anticipated early on Fri
from the Rockies to the OH Valley and mid Atlantic states south of
broad troughing over Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast
while the upper level trough gradually works into the western
Conus. Shortwave upper ridging is progged to move quickly from
the Plains to mid Atlantic Fri to Fri night with an associated
surface high pressure ridge working across the Great Lakes and OH
Valley region on Friday and then departing to the north and east
of the area on Friday night. As this occurs, the next shortwave
trough ejecting from western Conus troughing should move to and
then east of the Four Corners region and approach the Plains late
Fri into Sat. A surface response along the frontal zone should
lead to low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies over
the central to southern Plains with this sfc low preceding the
shortwave trough east and northeast to the mid MS Valley on Sat
and then to the mid Atlantic and then Northeast Conus Sat night
into Sunday. This would again result in the frontal zone that will
have settled south of the area on Friday lifting back north as a
warm front late Fri into Friday night and likely into or across
eastern KY on Sat pending timing and strength of the associated
shortwave trough. The trailing cold front would then drop into the
Commonwealth Sat night or early Sunday and then perhaps sagging
south of the state to end the period. Moisture return with the
lifting warm front should lead to PW reaching 0.6 to 0.8 around
dawn on Sat per 12Z LREF mean and then increase to 0.9 to 1.1
inches per the 12Z LREF mean Sat night and then again dropping off
below 1 inch behind the boundary to end the period.
The weather should be unsettled through the period with mild
temperatures and multiple chances for precipitation. Drizzle and a
slight chance of rain was used on Tue. Chances for rain increase
late Tue night and especially on Wed into Wed evening when PW
peaks. The sfc warm front may be nearly parallel to the upper flow
at times and with limited instability some thunder cannot be ruled
out. Where storms occur, some locally heavier rain may fall. WPC
has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for the Wed to Wed
night period so this scenario will continue to be monitored. As
this period gets into the range of high resolution models,
details in rainfall as well as where any thunderstorms may produce
locally heavier amounts should become clearer. Thunder chances
would continue for Wed night and then into Thu before the cold
front crosses eastern KY. QPF for the Tue night to Thu evening
period is currently forecast to be an inch or more areawide.
Looking at 12Z LREF data those numbers are on the higher end of
the ensembles that comprise this data so confidence in QPF during
that period is lower than average at this point. Rises on larger
streams and rivers would occur given the QPF and ensemble NAEFS
and GEFS data suggests downstream points on the main stem of the
KY would be most likely to experience the most significant rises
and high water.
A relative lull in precipitation chances follows for late Thu
night into Fri evening with high pressure dominating. Rain chances
then return next weekend. With confidence in the timing not all
that high undercut the NBM 6 hour PPI numbers for Sat to Sun and
opted more toward the NBM pop values. QPF this weekend could also
reach or exceed one inch. It is possible that more of a
hydrological response could be realized with this second system as
the midweek system should re-saturate the soils. Both systems and
QPF trends will continue to be monitored.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with just
occasional passing high clouds. Main concern will be LLWS through
the overnight until as late as 15z Monday as a low-level jet is
expected to strengthen through this time over much of Kentucky and
the Ohio Valley. These winds will begin to mix down to the surface
with adequate daytime surface heating beginning around or shortly
after 15z Monday, and continue until around sunset Monday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CMC
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 6:20 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502022320-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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