ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 1:23 AM EST
503
FXUS61 KILN 010623
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
123 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region bringing cooler air
today. Dry and mild conditions are forecast for the start of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Evening update...
Cold front is beginning to work through the area, currently
residing along the I-70 corridor. Temperatures are quickly
dropping behind the front, allowing for precipitation to change
over to a rain-snow mix and even to all snow. Forecast was
updated to show more snow wording, but accumulations remain
unlikely. The band of precipitation will continue to weaken over
the next few hours as it drifts south.
Temperatures in the 30s will follow the front southward toward
the Ohio River by the early morning hours. Wind gusts between
20 and 30 mph are currently being observed across the northern
half of Ohio. These will subside into the early morning hours
as high pressure builds in from the north.
Previous discussion...
A surface low and upper level shortwave trough will continue
progressing through the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening.
Warm, moist air advecting over the cold ground may allow pockets of
lower visibility to persist through much of the early afternoon
unless mechanical mixing from the wind allows some low level
saturation to dissipate. Additionally, some light shower activity or
drizzle may occur when the warm, saturated air in place.
While areas across the north stay gloomy, some locations along and
southeast of I-71, especially near the Tri-State, break out into
sunshine by the mid afternoon hours. Observations to the southwest
show a dry slow working in and temperatures may also spike to near
60 where the sun breaks out this afternoon.
Eventually, a cold front will push south of the area overnight
thereby ending shower chances and warm conditions later tonight.
Winds switch to the north behind the front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure skirts by to the north of the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
Northeasterly flow south of the high will keep temperatures near
seasonal averages under a mix of sun and clouds.
The surface high moves further northeast on Saturday night. Winds
shift to the southeast overnight and low level moisture increases
late overnight. Fairly thick low level cloud cover is likely by
Sunday morning and some drizzle cannot be ruled out based on some
forecast soundings. Forecast lows drop to near freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short wave will track across the region on Sunday. There will be
a low level jet in association with this which could provide
some weak lift within the persistent low level moisture. So
cannot rule out some very light showers or drizzle, but
confidence is too low to include in the forecast.
Cold front trailing low pressure tracking across southern
Canada will side through the region Monday into Monday night.
Forcing looks unimpressive and thus frontal passage is forecast
to be dry.
High pressure will briefly build in for Tuesday, but then the
front will lift back north on Wednesday, quickly followed by
another cold front on Thursday. This will bring showers with
some thunderstorms not out of the question. Another high will
follow on Friday.
Temperatures will be above to much above normal through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In the wake of a cold front surface high pressure will build
into the Great Lakes today. Low level moisture lagging the front
will offer MVFR to IFR ceilings this morning with some patchy
drizzle and MVFR visibility restrictions. As drier air advects
in from north clouds will scatter out between 15Z and 19Z. VFR
conditions are then expected to continue into tonight with only
an increase in high level clouds.
North winds at 10 to 15 KTS with gusts of 20-23 KTS early this morning
veer to the northeast by afternoon with values around 10 KTS.
The winds continue to veer to the east tonight and decreasing
to less than 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Sunday and Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 1:23 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502010623-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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