JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 7:20 AM EST
676
FXUS63 KJKL 021220 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
720 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High water and flooding will continue to move downstream on
rivers early in the week.
- Normal to well above normal temperatures will prevail for the
next week.
- Widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected to
arrive at midweek.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
The forecast looking pretty good so far this morning. Cloud cover
associated with a passing shortwave/warm front continues to stream
into the area from the west. This trend will continue throughout
the morning before the clouds begin to scatter out and move off to
the north this afternoon. Temperatures in some locations running a
bit warmer than forecast as warm air advection is already
occurring this morning, so the latest obs have been blended with
the hourly grids to establish new trends. Temperatures will need
to be monitored closely over the next few hours to see if the
current rate of warming is enough to warrant increasing today's
high temperatures. For now it is too early to say one way or the
other. The updated grids have been saved, published, and sent to
NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
A large ridge of high pressure centered over northern New England
will be our primary weather maker to begin the forecast period.
There will also be a well developed area of low pressure moving
eastward along the northern border. Another storm system will
becoming ashore in the Pacific Northwest, with an atmospheric river
bringing much needed rainfall to parts of the west coast, especially
central and northern California and southern Oregon. A shallow ridge
of high pressure will also be in placed over the desert southwest
and across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Strengthening
southerly flow is expected to set up across the region late this
morning through early this evening along the southwestern periphery
of a large surface ridge. We will also, however, see mostly
increasing clouds this morning, as a storm system moves across the
Great Lakes region today and eventually into New England. In spite
of these clouds, we should see temperatures rise quickly throughout
the day, due to strong surface warm air advection. In fact, we could
easily achieve high temperatures upper 50s and lower 60s later
today. These values would be at least a few degrees warmer than the
latest MOS guidance, and as much as 12 to 15 degrees warmer than
normal.
Southerly winds will increase once the sun has been up for awhile
and the pressure gradient across the region increases as a warm
front moves through the area during the day. Sustained values of
10 to 15 mph are expected, along with gusts of 20 to 25 mph at
times. The cloud cover should finally begin to break up and
scatter out this evening, and will give way to mostly clear
conditions by early Monday morning. We should see clear skies area
wide on Monday and even warmer temperatures, as southerly to
southwesterly flow persists across the region. With ample sunshine
also occurring, daytime heating should be maximized. Daytime
highs in the upper 60s will not be out of the question on Monday.
Some points along the Red River, Kentucky River, Cumberland River,
and Levisa Fork will continue to run high today. This will
constitute the only weather hazard across the area in the short
term.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
The period will start with start with rapid but innocuous nearly
zonal flow aloft over most of the CONUS. An upper level impulse
along the northern edge of the rapid flow will have an associated
surface low over southeast Canada, which will have a cold front
trailing southwestward, approaching the Ohio River. This front
will separate mild air over the southeast CONUS from arctic air to
the north. Only shallow low level moisture will be present along
this front initially. As the front settles south through KY,
forecast soundings are suggestive of a potential for drizzle, and
a minimal 20% POP for measurable precip has been carried near the
front as it advances into our area late Monday night into Tuesday
morning.
The front is expected to stall somewhere to our south at
midweek. However, ever since entering our forecasting time
window, confidence in temperatures during the mid-late week period
has been low, and that continues to be the case, as models are
still having trouble resolving the amount of shallow cold air that
will ooze southward. Regardless of this, there has been better
agreement that the front will return northward. This happens in
response to a shortwave trough rippling through the flow aloft and
supporting a wave of low pressure along the front. The latitude
of the low track and northward movement of the warm front is still
uncertain. Never-the-less, it should pick up moisture off the
gulf and lead to showers developing Wednesday. Forecast soundings
continue to show potential for thunder as well. The precip
prospect persists until the low passes and sends the boundary back
through as a cold front on Thursday. This will bring a return of
dry but colder weather by Friday.
It may only be a short break in inclement weather. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show a quick moving trough embedded in the flow aloft,
leading to another wave or surface low development along the
front on Saturday. There is, however, poor agreement on the
development and track of the wave/low. Despite this, both models
show rain developing in the warm air advection regime over our
area on Saturday. Have tentatively used just a 50% POP (as
suggested by MOS) due to the long time range and lack of good
model agreement.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2025
Low level cloud cover will spread across eastern Kentucky this
morning, as an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes
today. A warm front extending southward from the low will keep
clouds flowing across the area all morning. The TAF sites should
remain VFR during the period, with the exception of SYM, which
could see periods of MVFR CIGs this morning, as lower level clouds
may move through up there near the warm front. There will be some
fog around this morning, but it should remain confined to valley
floors and near bodies of water. The clouds will be BKN to OVC
this morning, but should become SCT by late this afternoon and
early this evening. The cloud cover will likely remain FEW to SCT
tonight through the end of the TAF period, as the northern low
pressure system pushes off to our east. Winds will be out of the
south or southwest this morning at around 5 kts, but will
increase to around 10kts by 17 or 18Z, with gusts of around 20 kts
possible at times. The winds will quickly slacken once the sun
goes down this evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 7:20 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502021220-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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