CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 7:31 PM EST
960
FXUS61 KCLE 020031
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
731 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts northeast across the area Sunday, followed
by a cold front on Monday. High pressure builds for Tuesday,
before low pressure impacts the region Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track for tonight. Temperatures have
already fallen into the teens in the east where winds are
lighter and closer to surface high pressure near Lake Ontario.
Temperatures are expected to stabilize and even slowly start to
climb overnight. We will be taking a close look at the 00Z
models and trying to evaluate if a short Winter Weather Advisory
is needed for portions of the area on Sunday morning when a
wintry mix is expected although with very light precipitation
amounts and even perhaps spotty coverage.
Previous discussion...A quiet and chilly night tonight as high
pressure begins departing to the east. Flat cumulus will clear
out this evening, though will be replaced later tonight by mid-
high level clouds coming in from the west. Lows will generally
range from the mid 10s to mid 20s, coldest in Northwest PA and
mildest towards Findlay and Marion. A few colder spots in the
higher terrain of PA could threaten the single digits. Light
east winds will shift south-southeast overnight tonight. There
will be enough wind to cause wind chills to fall to 0 to 10
above in far Northeast OH and Northwest PA tonight.
A warm front will lift through on Sunday with a period of light
precipitation along and ahead of the front. This precipitation
will arrive from west to east starting around 8 AM along the
I-75 corridor, reaching I-77 by 10 AM - Noon and getting into
Northwest PA in the 12 - 2 PM window. Precipitation type is not
very straight forward as this precipitation arrives...model
soundings suggest a warm (>0C) layer aloft may be in place
before precipitation begins, especially farther south across the
area. However, the low and mid-levels will be dry and wet-bulb
cooling will likely occur briefly as precipitation begins...
before becoming overwhelmed by warm air advection. After a cold
night tonight surface temperatures will take some time to start
bouncing back, and are expected to rise above freezing between
10 AM and 2 PM from southwest to northeast across our Ohio
counties and between 2 and 5 PM across our Pennsylvania
counties. We will likely see precipitation types bounce around a
bit for the first few hours of precipitation with a bit of
snow, freezing rain, and sleet all possible before rain/freezing
rain (and then all rain) become more dominant as temperatures
warm aloft and then shortly after at the surface.
In terms of any impacts/considerations with the light wintry
precipitation, it will be plenty cold tonight and pavement
temperatures will probably take until 10 AM - Noon to start
warming above freezing. So where any mixed precipitation occurs
there could be a window for slick conditions, particularly if
the mix includes more freezing rain than sleet or snow. Where
there's uncertainty is that the temperature profiles described
above are right on the fence for supporting snow/sleet vs
rain/freezing rain, and precip amounts are rather light overall.
Would say the greatest overall concern for a brief window of
slick road conditions is in a box bounded by roughly Toledo-
Findlay-Mansfield-Lorain, as this area has the greatest
confidence in measurable precipitation arriving before
air/pavement temperatures warm. Confidence in precipitation
begins decreasing south of the US 30 corridor... and
precipitation will arrive a bit later farther east which will
give the air and pavement a bit more time to warm up. By the
time one reaches far Northeast OH and Northwest PA, better
dynamics and cooler temperatures aloft could allow for a bit
more snow before changing to a mix and then rain. Overall, have
snow/sleet amounts of up to 1" in Northwest PA and up to 0.5" in
OH north of the Turnpike. The grids have trace amounts of ice
across most of the area, with the greatest potential for up to a
few hundredths in the box described above. Added potential for
a wintry mix to the Hazardous Wx Outlook for the whole area and
we did some messaging on social media...given plenty cold
conditions early in the day we may need to consider additional
messaging (such as a Special Wx Statement or short-fused Winter
Wx Advisory) for a portion of Northwest and North Central OH if
confidence in mixed precip in the morning increases. However,
that confidence isn't there right now.
By early Sunday evening surface temperatures should warm into
the mid to upper 30s across PA and the upper 30s to mid 40s
across Ohio. The warm front will exit to the east into Sunday
night allowing measurable precipitation to exit, though with
perhaps some stratus, fog and sprinkles lingering Sunday night,
especially farther east. Temperatures Sunday night will not
fall much amid southerly winds, with lows generally ranging from
the mid 30s to near 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure centered over Canada will extend a cold front southward
across the local area on Monday. This will allow for some light
rain/snow showers to develop downwind of Lake Erie through Tuesday
morning. We should remain dry through the day Tuesday as a weak
ridge of high pressure builds eastward. Another system will approach
the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and bring our next round of
precipitation. More below in the long term section!
High temperatures ahead of the cold front on Monday will rise into
the mid 50s, upper 40s to lower 50s along the lakeshore. Cooler on
Tuesday with highs ranging between the low/mid 30s north of US-30 to
mid 30s to low 40s south of US-30. Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday
night will dip into the mid/upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aforementioned system will continue to lift north across the Ohio
Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region through mid-week. There
remains a fair amount of spread across deterministic solutions for
the exact track and timing of this system as it moves over the local
area. Widespread precipitation is likely Wednesday night into
Thursday, though uncertainty in precipitation type and accumulation
amounts remains given the spread across models. The potential for
accumulating freezing rain, mainly Wednesday night into Thursday, is
something to keep an eye across the next few forecast cycles. As it
stands right now, NBM probabilities are roughly 20-50% for
accumulating freezing rain across portions of Northwest and North
Central Ohio. The system will eventually exit to the east late next
week as a ridge of high pressure builds eastward bringing a brief
window of dry weather on Friday. Precipitation chances increase at
the tail end of the long term as a system over the Great Plains
moves into the Great Lakes region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Low stratus has mostly eroded while high clouds are filling in
across the area. On Sunday morning we expect to see some light
and possibly spotty precipitation develop across the area with
a warm front. This could begin as snow towards TOL around 14Z
while other locations like FDY and MFD may start as a freezing
rain or sleet mix. TOL may also see some freezing rain as the
atmosphere continues to warm aloft. Farther to the east is is
less clear regarding what precip type to expect as it looks like
a brief window of precipitation and one that will quickly
transition from snow/sleet/freezing rain to all rain as surface
temperatures climb above freezing. ERI is most likely to see a
few hours of snow with light accumulations before mixing with
rain. Tried to time the wintry mix through the terminals but
will need to keep a close eye on surface temperatures and the
progress of the front during the day on Sunday. As precipitation
begins, look for ceilings to drop from VFR to MVFR. Some sites,
especially in NE Ohio may eventually lower to IFR during the
afternoon. Precipitation is likely to be done in Ohio by 00Z
Monday and ending soon in PA with an improving trend to
ceilings. Some BR is also possible during the afternoon in the
warm sector with the low ceilings and moist conditions.
Winds are starting off out of the east or northeast at 10 knots
or less but will veer around to the south and eventually
southwest on Sunday while increasing to 8-12 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR lingers Sunday night in low clouds. Additional
non-VFR is likely with more widespread rain showers Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
due to extensive ice cover. Easterly winds 5-10 knots this evening
and overnight turn southerly Sunday afternoon as surface high
pressure exits east and a warm front lifts north towards Lake Erie.
Generally southerly to southwesterly winds between 10-15 knots
through Monday night before winds turn northerly to northeasterly
behind a cold front.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...10/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10/Sullivan
MARINE...13
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 7:31 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502020031-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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