LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 5:12 AM CST ...New AVIATION...
759
FXUS64 KLIX 241112
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
512 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 254 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025
A fast moving shortwave trough will exit to the east today. An
associated weak front will also slide through the area this
morning, and some mid-level cloud cover associated with this
feature will slide through during the morning hours. This cloud
cover has kept temperature far warmer than originally expected
with readings remaining in the upper 20s and lower 30s. As a
result, the cold weather advisory was cancelled since readings are
not expected to fall below 25 degrees this morning. By this
afternoon, increasing negative vorticity and dry advection will
lead to clear skies. The main impact from the passage of this
system will be a potent thermal trough axis that is expected to
slide through the region today. This cooler airmass will keep
daytime highs in the mid to upper 40s this afternoon and will lead
to another night of lows dipping into the 20s and lower 30s
tonight. Another round of hard freeze temperatures are expected
for inland portions of the Northshore, coastal Mississippi, and
the Northshore as lows dip into the low to mid 20s. Fortunately,
winds will be light, so wind chills will not be a big concern
tonight. A cold weather advisory may be needed for parts of the
Northshore and coastal Mississippi along the I-10/12 corridor, but
confidence is not high enough to issue one with this forecast
package.
A upper level zonal flow pattern will take hold tomorrow across
the Gulf South and remain in place through Sunday night. In the
low to mid-levels a ridge axis will shift to the east. This will
result in deep layer onshore flow developing. A warmer and more
humid airmass will begin to advect into the area on the back of
this southerly flow pattern. The end result will be warming
temperatures with highs climbing into the mid to upper 50s
tomorrow and the low to mid 60s on Sunday. Lows will also climb as
moisture increases with lows tomorrow night only cooling into the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Further warming on Sunday night will push
lows into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Rain chances will also increase Sunday into Sunday night as a jet
couplet forms over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Increasing lift
between this jet couplet will support the development of scattered
to numerous showers Sunday into Sunday night. Forcing and overall
shower activity will be most pronounced across the northern third
of the CWA where PoP of 40 to 60 percent is in the forecast.
Further to the south along the I-10 corridor, weaker forcing will
support more isolated to widely scattered activity and this
reflected by lower PoP of 20 to 40 percent from Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Instability will be very limited, so
thunderstorm activity is not expected with this system on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025
Shower activity will continue into the morning hours on Monday,
but the best forcing will shift to the east of the area by the
afternoon and increasing subsidence aloft will support a return to
dry conditions in the afternoon hours. These dry conditions will
persist into Monday night. The zonal flow regime aloft will allow
temperatures to remain near average with highs in the low to mid
60s and lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Tuesday will remain
largely dry as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 60s. At
most some very light showers could develop with daytime heating
and some weak lift aloft beneath a passing jet streak, but these
will be very short- lived. Have included a 20 percent PoP to
account for these light rain showers.
Conditions will turn more favorable for shower activity to return
on Wednesday and Thursday. The region will find itself beneath the
right entrance region of a jet streak in the upper levels on
Wednesday, and this will support increased forcing aloft. This
forcing will tap into the warm and moist airmass in the low to
mid-levels to produce scattered shower activity throughout the
day. Model soundings indicate there may be some limited
instability, so have included a mention of isolated thunderstorm
activity across southwest portions of the CWA. Any thunderstorm
activity will be low topped and short-lived given the limited
overall instability in place. Otherwise, temperatures will rise
into the upper 60s and lower 70s both Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons and overnight lows will only cool into the 50s. There
is a fair degree of model spread in the overall pattern from
Thursday onward, and have opted to stick with the NBM solution
for this time period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025
A mid-level cloud deck at 12k feet associated with a passing cold
front will push to the east by 18z with clear skies taking hold
afterwards. This will result in continued prevailing VFR
conditions at all of the terminals through tomorrow morning. PG
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 254 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025
An area of mid level clouds is rapidly approaching from the
western Gulf. This will bring about a 6 hour period of ceilings
with cloud bases around FL100-120 at all terminals with the
possible exception of KMCB. The upper trough approaching from the
northwest should clear these clouds from all terminal areas with
its passing around midday Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025
Through early next week, a surface high pressure system will move
through the waters and then become centered just to the east of
the waters. Winds will remain gusty offshore today with exercise
caution headlines for the western waters, but winds will drop off
quickly tonight and tomorrow as the surface high becomes centered
directly over the area. These lighter winds of 10 knots or less
will gradually shift to the south over the weekend and remain out
of the south into early next week. Seas will also decrease from 2
to 4 feet today to 1 to 2 feet this weekend into early next week.
Overall, no significant weather impacts to maritime operations
are anticipated through next Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 47 23 54 37 / 0 0 0 20
BTR 49 27 56 42 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 50 26 55 40 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 47 33 55 45 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 50 26 54 39 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 50 24 54 39 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 5:12 AM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501241112-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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