WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jan 30, 7:19 PM CST
987
AGUS74 KWCO 310134
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #005 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
719 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
WHAT: Flash, urban, and riverine flooding impacts expected
WHERE: Central Tennessee into southern Ohio, Kentucky and West
Virginia
WHEN: Through early tomorrow morning
Forecast Rainfall and Antecedent Conditions...
QPF: 2 - 3", (HRRR, WPC)
Snowmelt: 1 - 2" (SNODAS/NWM)
Rainfall Rates: Up to 1"/hr (WPC)
Soil Moisture: 70 - 95% (RSM, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Generally near normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Rainfall will continue to move east across the areas of concern
through early tomorrow morning, bringing the potential for flooding
impacts. Top soils are saturated throughout the area of concern while
mid-layer soils are becoming more wet, but any training of showers
may be quickly converted to runoff. Some snowmelt is also anticipated
to play a factor in portions of eastern KY and WV, adding additional
runoff and potentially enhancing rises on streams and rivers.
The National Water Model (NWM) responses are being observed from
central TN through southern OH, KY and WV. Signals from the
Short-Range Forecast (SRF) have continued to increase and rapid-onset
flooding (ROF) probabilities generally range in the 50 to 75% range
with more isolated signals greater than 75%. Forecast max flow
magnitudes generally are around 50% AEP, suggesting widespread
significant flows are not expected, however, locally significant
small stream flooding cannot be ruled out.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//TMK
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...ILN...MEG...PAH...LMK...JKL...RLX...HUN...OHX...RNK...MRX...LWX
ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...WPC
Source: WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jan 30, 7:19 PM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501310119-KWCO-AGUS74-AHDNWC)
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