LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 12:01 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...
240
FXUS63 KLMK 280501
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1201 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Gusty winds of 20-25mph tonight into tomorrow.
* Widespread rains and breezy conditions expected mainly Thursday
night and Friday, with precipitation possibly lingering into
Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches expected, with
locally heavier amounts possible in southern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
A quiet night is in store with little to speak of other than typical
late January weather. Lows are expected to range in the upper 20s
and low 30s, although surface winds may play a role in keeping some
areas a bit milder. Have already seen some sheltered/decoupled
locations dip into the 20s given the large T/Td spread, but any
areas that stay coupled due to the steady SW winds will likely stay
in the 30s.
Do expect we'll have a period of scattered mid level clouds move
overhead overnight, and there are some light returns on radar with
some of these clouds. These will be inconsequential as the low
levels are very dry and no precip will hit the ground.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 302 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
The Ohio Valley is currently situated between sprawling sfc high
pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley and a deep 964mb low just
to the east of Hudson Bay. While the sfc high and drier air are
keeping skies clear, while the tight pressure gradient between the
two sfc features is providing gusty ESE winds across the northern
portions of IL, IN and OH this afternoon. These wind gusts are also
getting some assistance from a 35-45kt LLJ mixing down across the
aforementioned areas to our north. The LLJ is expected to drop
southward and into southern IN/central KY late this evening and into
the early morning hours. Winds are expected to increase during this
time and wind gusts of 20-25 mph are still possible. Other than the
wind, skies will remain clear with with lows in the upper 20s to the
low 30s.
We will remain under the influence of sfc high pressure tomorrow as
it shifts over the Deep South along the Gulf Coast. A second fast
moving clipper system will work into the Upper Midwest and northern
Great Lakes late in the day. Once again the sfc pressure gradient
will tighten and winds will increase to around 10-15mph with
possible gusts to around 20mph. Temperatures will warm into the low
50s/upper 40s in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
Dry and mild weather is in store Tue night through much of Thursday
under ridging aloft. Could be a bit breezy Tue night and Wed as
we'll see a tighter gradient on the southern flank of a sfc low
crossing the Great Lakes. Given the typical bias in most model
guidance in warm advection patterns, this temp forecast will run on
the high end, and 5-10 degrees above normal.
By Thursday a closed low starts to eject out of the Four Corners
region, with low-level jetting and isentropic lift developing
downstream. The most widespread and heaviest rain is expected Thu
night and Fri as the warm conveyor belt translates eastward across
the Ohio Valley. Confidence is high that we'll see copious rainfall
across the area, with 1-2 inches in most places, and locally higher
amounts possible over southern Kentucky. Deep moisture is lost after
that, but light rain will linger into Friday night as the upper low
opens up and crosses the region. No p-type concerns as temps stay
mainly in the 40s and 50s, and no severe wx concerns with the lack
of instability. While the current QPF wouldn't be enough to cause
significant flooding, ECMWF EFI/SoT values leave the door open to
heavier rainfall and WPC has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
in Day 5.
Can't rule out light rain behind the departing system on Saturday,
but chances are quite low. The balance of the weekend looks dry and
quite mild, with temperatures more typical of early/mid-March under
zonal flow and a Pacific air mass.
.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
Main impact: Winds, LLWS
Confidence: Medium-high
A low level jet along the length of the Ohio River will bring LLWS
to SDF/LEX/BWG during the pre-dawn hours. These winds will move off
to the east later this morning, with a relative lull in surface
winds as well before things get mixy and southwest surface winds
south of low pressure over Michigan gust to around 20kt this
afternoon. Then tonight an even stronger low level jet from Illinois
to the upper Ohio Valley is expected to bring another round of LLWS
to the TAF sites even though surface winds will stay up around 9-
12kt as the Michigan low proceeds to New York.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...13
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 12:01 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501280501-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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