ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 6:49 AM EST
997
FXUS61 KILN 261149
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push southeast across the region today.
High pressure will then build east into the Ohio Valley tonight.
The high will shift south to the Tennessee Valley on Monday.
There will eventually be some moderation in temperatures,
especially toward the end of the week and into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid level trough moving from the central Great Lakes to New
England will allow a weak cold front to push southeast across
our region today. Though the front will be dry, there will be
considerable mid and high level cloudiness. Weak CAA will keep
temperatures a little cooler for most locations, except for our
southeast zones. Highs will range from the lower 30s northwest
to the lower 40s southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Under a developing northwest flow aloft, the mid and high level
clouds will clear from northwest to southeast tonight.
Meanwhile, a surface high pressure ridge will build east into
the Ohio Valley. Lows will range from the mid teens to the lower
20s.
On Monday, the surface ridge is forecast to shift south into
the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move into the
northern Plains and northern Great Lakes. The surface pressure
gradient is forecast to increase/tighten between these two
systems. As such, southwest winds will become breezy to locally
windy, especially for our northern zones. In fact, winds may
gust up to 35 mph across west central Ohio into the northern
sections of central Ohio. Despite plenty of sunshine, it will
remain seasonably cold with highs ranging from the lower 30s
north to near 40 south. As expected, the wind will make it feel
much colder.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A dry forecast will be found through Thursday until a warm
front passes north through the area, bringing an area of rain
overnight. A fly in the ointment is that temperatures overnight
are progged to drop below freezing. The warm frontal processes
will negate the chance of any precip occurring as snow, and lows
in the 20s with increasing but still low chance pops
necessitate the inclusion of freezing rain. This threat quickly
ends as temperatures rise to above freezing early Friday. Rain
chances continue for the remainder of the forecast until they
die off behind this lingering system Saturday night and Sunday.
Per the GFS, a cutoff upper low in the Plains will develop a
surface low that should track to the northeast, skimming just
south of or in the southern CWA Friday night. The low devolves
into an open wave Friday night, and the resultant s/w axis
passes over the CWA near 18Z Saturday. The passage of the upper
trough during this time will mark the end of the rainy period
for the region. High pressure will build to the north and cross
into the Northeast late Sunday. Considering the European model,
the cutoff low continues to deepen as it tracks northeast. Not
being an open wave, the surface low underneath it is a bit
further to the northwest and flow remains southerly through the
forecast.
The battling solutions with this rainfall event ultimately lead
to a 20 degree difference in temperatures on Sat/Sat night with
the Euro having a high/low of 50/40 and the GFS 28/17. This MOS
guidance is for KDAY being used as a proxy. These temperature
differences begin on Friday night and remain split beyond the
forecast period. Until then, there is good agreement on a steady
rise in temperatures with the exception of a weak cold front on
Wednesday putting a slight kink of colder readings overnight
Wed and near-steady or slowly rising highs from Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
A weak cold front will move southeast across the region today.
Varying amounts of mid and high level clouds can be expected.
West/northwest winds between 5 and 10 knots can be expected.
For tonight, a ridge of high pressure will build eastward into
the Ohio Valley. Mid and high clouds will move southeast out of
the region, leaving mainly clear skies in the later overnight
hours. West/southwest winds will be between 5 and 10 knots.
OUTLOOK...Gusty west/southwest winds to around 30 knots (mainly
north of the Ohio River) Monday into Monday night. LLWS likely
Monday night. MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 6:49 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501261149-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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