LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 21, 4:14 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
969
FXUS64 KLIX 212214
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
414 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 357 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
The precipitation portion of a historic winter storm for our CWA
will be winding down over the next few hours. Snowfall totals
across much of the CWA haven't been seen in at least 60 years, if
ever. Have cancelled the Winter Storm Warning in northern portions
of the CWA where precipitation has ended, and will remove
additional areas as radar dictates. That being said, even after
canceling the Warning, travel is extremely discouraged overnight
across the entire CWA. Headlines regarding cold weather will
remain in place tonight, and will likely be necessary again
tomorrow night.
With significant snowpack in place, guidance high temperatures
are way too high for tomorrow, and have generally used NBM 10th
percentile for tomorrow, and those could even be a degree or two
too warm. While we get close to full sunshine tomorrow, it may not
be enough to melt enough snow to improve travel.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 357 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Gradual moderation in temperatures, but won't reach climatologic
normals until Sunday. Southern stream shortwave will bring a
chance of rain to the area Sunday. Used NBM PoPs/Temps beyond
Thursday, but undercut NBM highs Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Visibilities near field minima in snow at most terminals at
forecast issuance. Little improvement in visibilities for at least
the next 3 hours or so. Current indications are that precipitation
should cut off by 00z Wednesday at most terminals, with the
possible exception of KGPT, and even there, it shouldn't be long
afterward. While VFR ceilings and visibilities are anticipated by
mid-evening, temperatures are likely to remain below freezing
until at least mid-morning Wednesday, which will impact runway
conditions. Wind gusts to 30 knots will continue at KNEW until
about 03z before diminishing.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Will continue Marine headlines that were in place this evening,
but carry Small Craft Advisory for all waters from midnight to 6
AM CST. Beyond that point, winds should start diminishing, and
don't anticipate advisory level conditions until perhaps Sunday,
if then.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 11 34 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 11 34 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 13 34 20 45 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 21 32 26 41 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 14 34 21 44 / 20 0 0 0
PQL 14 34 19 46 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for LAZ046-
056>060-064>070-076>080-082-084>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-557.
Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ550-552-555-570-
572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Wednesday
for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-577.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MSZ077-
083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-557.
Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ552-555-570-572-
575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Wednesday
for GMZ552-555-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 21, 4:14 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501212214-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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