ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 9:28 AM EST
092
FXUS61 KILN 251428
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
928 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase and thicken ahead of a weak cold front
which is forecast to pass southeast across the area tonight into
Sunday. High pressure will then build back into the region for
Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal this weekend, then above normal early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Southwest flow and WAA will be in place across the region
today. Some weak isentropic lift may lead to a few flurries this
afternoon, primarily across our far northeast. Otherwise skies
will be mostly cloudy today with south to southwest winds of 15
to 25 mph. Temperatures will moderate with afternoon highs
ranging from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A mid level trough will traverse across the Great Lakes tonight
into Sunday. As it does, a weak cold front will be pushed
southeast across the region. Considerable cloudiness, mainly of
the mid and high level variety, will persist through the period.
CAA will bring temperatures down a little for Sunday. After
lows ranging from the lower 20s north to the upper 20s south,
highs on Sunday will range from the upper 20s north to the upper
30s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mean westerly flow aloft and a southwest flow at the surface
will prevail through early Tuesday. The tail end of a weakening
front will turn surface winds more westerly over the region on
Tuesday as this front skims northeastern portions of the CWA
before exiting to the east.
A digging upper trough over the Upper Midwest will see a
surface low track east through the lower Great Lakes Tuesday
night. This low will reach New England by Wednesday, with a
trailing cold front crossing the CWA during the day.
High pressure will build to the west and northwest on Thursday
and settle over the CWA Friday. As the high situates itself east
of the area Friday night and Saturday, low pressure will
develop in the Midwest underneath a northward ejecting cutoff
upper low. This low will bring some rain to the region on
Saturday as southerly winds ahead of it bring in a modest amount
of moisture to get wrung out as rain.
Teens on Monday morning will warm into the 30s, with a mild (as
of lately) low in the upper 20s occurs Monday night. Tues and
Wed will also be mild, from the upper 30s north to the mid-upper
40s south. Likewise, lows by Wed morning will range from 30-35.
The cold front on Wednesday will drop lows to 20-25 overnight,
with a cooler 30-40 degree high temps expected Thurs. With the
settling high pressure, lows Thu night will drop back to the
15-20 deg range. The settling high pressure with generally clear
skies will permit highs in the 30s Fri and 40s Sat, sandwiching
Sat morning lows in the 20s.
Deterministic models are back in sync and promote a higher
confidence extended forecast this morning.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions forecast to prevail through this forecast
period.
For today, a warm front will lift north/northeast across the
region. Diurnal mixing and a modest pressure gradient will
result in south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots, gusting
between 18 and 24 knots after 15Z. Varying amounts of mid and
high level clouds will stream across the region. Winds will
begin to decrease and become less gusty around 22Z.
For tonight, a cold front is forecast to push southeast into
the region as a mid level trough digs east across the Great
Lakes. The front is expected to remain dry with varying amounts
of mid and high level clouds continuing. Southwest to west winds
5 to 10 knots will veer to the west/northwest after frontal
passage. Models suggest a window for potential LLWS along and
ahead of the cold front as a low level jet increases. Have
included this in all but the KDAY terminal.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 9:28 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501251428-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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