IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 5:56 PM EST
756
FXUS63 KIND 252256
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
556 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Cloudy Tonight and Sunday; Cooler on Sunday
- Strong wind gusts up to 35mph possible Monday afternoon and evening
- Overall breezy early-mid next week, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday
- Next chances of organized precipitation next Friday and Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure in place
north of the Great Lakes, providing cyclonic flow across the Great
Lakes. Another low was found across the southern plains, with a weak
cold front, becoming elongated, connecting the systems through
IL/MO/OK. Strong High pressure was found over the southeastern
states. All of this was resulting in a warmer southwest flow across
Central Indiana. GOES16 shows mid cloud continuing to stream across
Central Indiana within the nearly zonal flow aloft. Water vapor
shows plentiful mid and high level moisture within this high flow
aloft, headed for the Ohio Valley. Radar shows snow flurries/SN
passing with these high clouds over northern Central Indiana,
however, dry air within the lower levels was preventing any of this
from reaching the ground. Furthermore, radar trends shows decreasing
trends with this feature. Temps were in the 30s and climbing within
the ongoing warm air advection and southwest flow.
Tonight -
Quiet weather is expected through Sunday, but temperatures will be
slightly cooler on Sunday as compared to today. The previously
mentioned cold front is expected to approach Central Indiana this
evening before passing across the state overnight. Little support is
found within the upper levels as the previously mentioned zonal flow
remains in place. Forecast soundings and time heights continue to
show dry lower levels but saturation aloft as the front passes. Thus
we will just continue to expect mostly cloudy skies overnight and a
wind shift as the front passes.
The strong surface high pressure system south of Indiana will push
through the Gulf States tonight through Saturday. This will allow
for a warmer, westerly flow of Pacific air to begin to arrive across
Central Indiana. Although the high will be centered well to the
southeast, it will remain the main weather feature that will control
our weather through Saturday, providing dry air within the lower
levels.
Weak cold air advection will be found in the wake of the front, but
cloud cover should also help to prevent too much temperatures drop.
Thus lows in the lower 20s will be expected.
Sunday -
The zonal flow is expected to remain in place aloft on Sunday. This
will help to prevent any intrusions of arctic air as we start the
work week. However, this quick zonal flow will continue to provide a
steady stream of mid and high clouds across Indiana. Thus another
mostly cloudy day will be expected. Within the lower levels, the
cold front will have exited to the east, and another area of high
pressure will be nosing into Indiana while centered over the plains
states. Again, this system will provide Indiana with calm but
slightly cooler weather as surface winds become more northwesterly
Expect highs on Sunday in the lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
Expect mostly quiet weather through much of the extended period with
milder temperatures. The main concern in the long term is the
potential for strong wind gusts Monday afternoon and evening. Surface
high pressure centered near the region early in the period will
support a quiet and cold Sunday night with lows in the teens.
By Monday, high pressure shifts towards the southeast while a low
pressure system moving across Canada sweeps a cold front through
the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient between these two systems
will tighten significantly supporting the potential for strong
wind gusts Monday afternoon. A strong LLJ is also expected during
this period which could result in southwesterly wind gusts up to
35mph. There is at least a low chance for higher gusts though this
potential should become clearer once high resolution models come
into range.
Look for these strong winds to linger into the evening before
tapering off overnight. Temperatures were increased on Monday and
Monday night to account for the strong southwesterly flow. Highs
on Monday are expected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Another weak system traversing the Great Lakes region midweek will
push a cold front through central Indiana providing a brief
cooldown. Precipitation is unlikely due to a lack of moisture and
forcing. Behind the departing disturbance, high pressure builds back
in allowing for quiet weather to persist. Temperatures begin to
moderate late week with return flow ahead of an approaching low
pressure system.
Increasing moisture advection and forcing will likely support
precipitation at some point towards the end of the period.
Diverging model solutions leads to limited confidence in the onset
of precipitation. Given the tendency for NBM to increase rain
chances too quickly with an antecedent dry airmass in place, POPs
have been delayed until late Friday night. Most deterministic
model solutions support this as well showing a very dry column
during the Friday while NBM is trying to throw in rain chances.
Wintry precipitation is possible Friday night into Saturday as
temperatures are going to be below freezing. Increasing warm air
advection leads to concerns that freezing rain/sleet may mix in as
well depending on how strong of a warm nose develops. This system is
still 7 days out and confidence in exacts details are very low, but
this will be monitored closely heading into next week.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 556 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected this TAF period.
Fast zonal flow aloft will bring mid and high clouds across the
terminals. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will move across the
terminals late this evening allowing the surface winds to shift from
southwest to west and northwest but less than 10 knots. A dry
boundary layer with surface dew points in the upper teens and lower
20s along with some wind should keep fog from forming.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...MK
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 5:56 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501252256-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!