JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 7:28 PM EST
094
FXUS63 KJKL 260028
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
728 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures moderate to normal levels today and then should remain
near if not a few degrees above normal for most of next week.
- There is a low chance for minor accumulations of snow Sunday
night across parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky,
particularly south of KY-80 and the Hal Rogers Parkway.
- A less active weather pattern is in store for next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
Have made adjustments for faster drops in many valley
temperatures this evening. With the recent routine aviation
update, have also raised cloud cover on Sunday afternoon,
especially over the southern portion of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 236 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
Confluent zonal flow aloft to the south of a strong upper-level jet
stream extending from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic regions will
support dry lower to mid levels and thin high clouds into this
evening. As we progress into tonight, the region comes under
increasing Q-G warm advection in proximity to the right-entrance
region of the aforementioned jet stream. This will support
thickening cloud cover through the overnight ahead of a weakening
cold front approaching from the west Sunday. Lows tonight will be
much warmer as a result of the Q-G warm advection and thickening
cloud cover, with mid-20s to lower 30s expected.
The northern part of this front will weaken significantly as it
crosses the Ohio Valley Sunday, with a southern stream system
organizing and heading east across the Gulf Coast states Sunday
night, with models increasingly showing the remnant front
redeveloping over our area as a positively-tilted upper trough dives
east and southeast toward eastern Kentucky.
Models continue to trend more aggressive with depicting light
precipitation, mostly wet snow perhaps beginning briefly as rain,
across southeastern Kentucky Sunday night. Models show saturated low-
levels generally too warm to produce ice crystals, as well as
saturation in the mid-to upper-levels of the atmosphere supportive
of producing ice/snow crystals. However, the uncertainty lies in
whether a pocket of dry air between these two layers can be overcome
to produce a seeder-feeder situation, in which a saturated low-level
air mass can be seeded by ice/snow crystals from above to produce
precipitation. The HREF depicts 1-hr snow probabilities of
measurable snow overnight at Middlesboro at around 30 percent, with
lesser probabilities across much of the rest of eastern Kentucky.
Have thus trended higher with PoPs than the NBM with this forecast
package. This will bear watching, as a couple of CAMS depict a brief
period of heavier snow with a completely saturated atmosphere south
of KY Highway 80 and the Hal Rogers Parkway.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with the system late next
week into next weekend. However, still a little better agreement
than we have seen much of the week in the extended. The model
suites continue to struggle with the upper low ejecting out of
the Four Corners region and the overall split flow pattern. This
will make the later parts of the long term remain a little more
uncertain at this point. However, it would seem the NBM remains a
little on the faster side for getting this moisture into the area
by late week. This still could be some of the differences we are
seeing in timing on the system from various ensemble solutions and
would still expect a trend toward the weekend into early next
week. This is also leading to some larger temperature spreads
between the various guidance of 10 or more degrees at times.
That said, the period does begin dry and will remain that way
through at least Tuesday night. The temperatures will come in around
average, with highs in the low to mid 40s and even around 50
degrees by Tuesday. This will be the first 50s we have seen since
January 17 at JKL if we can pull it off. The NBM is giving much
of the area greater than a 70 percent chance of climbing above 49
degrees. We do see a mid-level shortwave that dives southward
across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. This feature could lead to a
small chance of precipitation around the 10 to 25 percent range
peaking in the far southeast. This is expected to be in the form
of all rain given the warming trend.
This shortwave will exit east and we will see dry period setup for
Thursday ahead of the upper level feature mentioned above.
Unfortunately, it would seem the NBM remains quite fast with
bringing in precipitation with the late next week system. This
does lead to a period of rain and even at times some snow in the
forecast. However, given the spread in temperatures mentioned
before because of timing this could be leading to some odd periods
of winter precipitation. Overall, this system looks to be coming
in on the warmer side and should be minimal if any snowfall if
trends continue. The EPS/GEPS/GEFS are showing less than a 15
percent chance of seeing measurable snow in the 24 hour period
ending Saturday at 7 PM and even less before this time frame on
Friday. Given this it is in the range of possibilities that we
don't see precipitation on Friday and it is Saturday before we see
chances of precipitation increase.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
Although clouds will become more prevalent, VFR conditions are
forecast to persist through the period. Clouds, initially high and
thin, will thicken with time tonight. Lower ceilings, generally
in the 4-6K ft AGL range, will also develop southward through the
area overnight and on Sunday morning.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 7:28 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501260028-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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