ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 6:10 PM EST
326
FXUS61 KILN 242310
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
610 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build east of the area overnight. A weak
cold front is expected to pass east across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, followed by high
pressure on Sunday. Temperatures look to be closer to normal
this weekend, then above normal early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft backs more westerly overnight. Surface
ridge axis over the region to shift off to the east with a low
level southerly flow developing. After mostly clear conditions
at early evening - in a warm air advection regime expect to see
an increase in mid and high level clouds overnight. Low
temperatures to occur at late evening with temperatures steading
out after midnight and then rising slightly as winds and clouds
increase. Lows to range from the single digits northeast to the
middle teens southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Westerly flow aloft with a disturbance moving through the Great
Lakes. In a broad isentropic/WAA regime clouds will thicken
with with a chance/slight chance of snow mainly in the afternoon
across the far northern counties. Any accumulation looks to be
light and a dusting to a few tenths of an inch. Highs on
Saturday will rise into the lower 30s north to the lower 40s
south.
Weak surface cold front to slip east thru the area late Saturday
night. Although the threat for pcpn shifts east - clouds to
settle into the area overnight. Lows to range from the lower 20s
northwest to the mid/upper 20s southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will be in between a broad area of low pressure in
southeastern Canada and high pressure to the southwest Sunday and
Monday. Breezy westerly flow persists in this synoptic setup along
with slightly below average temperatures. More mild conditions will
develop on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds shift more to the
southwest ahead of the next cold front which likely arrives later on
Wednesday. FROPA is likely to be dry since moisture and forcing
remain on the low end. The forecast remains dry into the end of the
work week behind the cold front since high pressure is expected to
move across the area through the day on Friday.
A more noticeable shift in the synoptic conditions may take shape by
this weekend. Upper level ridging builds into the eastern CONUS and
surface flow remains more southwesterly across the Ohio Valley with
storms tracks shifting west of the area. This setup favors more mild
conditions with repeated chances for rain.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through this taf period.
High level clouds traverse the terminals tonight, followed by
more mid level clouds building in on Saturday.
Light winds out of the southwest tonight will increase to around
10-15 kts sustained by mid-morning Saturday, with gusts up to
25 kts. Additionally, while there is no mention in the tafs,
there is a very low chance for a brief period of light snow,
primarily at KCMH/KLCK during the late afternoon/evening hours.
Chance remains low enough to not include a mention in the tafs
at this time.
OUTLOOK...LLWS possible Sunday morning. MVFR ceilings possible
Saturday night into Sunday and again on Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Clark
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 6:10 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501242310-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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