CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 1:02 AM EST
036
FXUS61 KCLE 270602
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
102 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will attempt to build over the region tonight into
Monday before deep low pressure over Canada pushes a cold front
across the area Monday night into Tuesday. Another disturbance
will cross the region Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1:02 AM EST Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. Agree with the Sunday evening shift that a Wind
Advisory will likely be needed for at least portions of our CWA
for late Monday morning through a large portion of Monday night.
Will continue to evaluate latest model guidance as it becomes
available before making a final decision.
Previous Discussion...
A ridge will attempt to build into the region this evening, allowing
any remaining lake effect snow showers and lake effect clouds to
scatter out. Radiational cooling due to clear skies will result in
overnight lows in the teens.
On Monday, the pressure gradient will tighten in response to deep
low pressure moving east across Canada and high pressure building
across the southern CONUS. Southwesterly winds will increase
significantly late Monday morning and especially Monday afternoon
and evening with peak sustained winds to 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
35 to 45 mph expected during this time. Wind gusts have trended a
bit higher since the last full update; HREF guidance highlights
portions of northern Ohio and the lakeshore of NW PA with a 60 to as
high as 90 percent chance of 45+ mph wind gusts and even suggests
that there is a chance of a gusts approaching 55 to 60 mph in few
spots near the Erie County PA/Chautauqua County NY border Monday
evening into Monday night. However, uncertainty in the depth of
mixing and the resulting gusts still exists, especially since the
strongest winds aloft may not develop over the area until after peak
diurnal heating and possibly near or after sunset. Opted to hold off
on any Wind Advisories with this update, but it's possible that an
advisory will be needed if winds continue to trend higher with the
next full update. Regardless, it will be quite blustery Monday.
Winds will slowly begin to relax after Midnight Monday night. Highs
will be in the low to mid 30s (upper 20s in interior NW PA) with
wind chills in the teens.
The aforementioned low to the north will push a trough/surface cold
front southeast across the eastern Great Lakes late Monday night.
PoPs will increase ahead of the front with the highest precipitation
chances associated with the best lift and moisture across NE OH/NW
PA. A band of snow could accompany the front as it moves into
northern zones towards the end of the period, which may produce
moderate to briefly heavy snowfall rates. By the end of the near
term period, 1 to 3 inches of snow will likely accumulate across the
snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA with locally higher amounts
possible in the higher terrain of NW PA if moderate snowfall rates
manage to develop. Still can't rule out a Winter Weather Advisory
across interior NW PA for heavier snowfall rates and impacts from
blowing/drifting snow, but still some uncertainty in how efficient
precipitation rates are given minimal lake influence. Snowfall
amounts outside of the snowbelt will be an inch or less. Monday
night's lows will be in the upper teens to low to mid 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper level trough with multiple passing shortwaves will
impact much of the weather through the short term period. Lake
enhanced snow showers will likely be ongoing at the onset of the
short term as the cold front sags south of the local area. Generally
northwesterly flow across Lake Erie, in addition to limited low
level moisture, should supply enough support for light snow showers
downwind of the lake. Winds will back slightly Tuesday afternoon and
evening which will push any lingering showers offshore before the
next system arrives Wednesday. Snowfall accumulations through
Tuesday night will generally remain under half an inch, with 2-3
inches possible across Northwest Pennsylvania.
Another upper shortwave and surface low pressure system will quickly
drop into the eastern Great Lakes region on Wednesday,
reinvigorating lake effect snow showers late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday night. Given a mostly ice covered lake and how quickly
this system is expected to exit the region, expecting minimal
accumulation under an inch for most with 2-3 inches possible across
Northwest Pennsylvania.
High temperatures remain in the mid to upper 30s Tuesday and
Wednesday, lower 30s across the Snowbelt. Overnight lows on Tuesday
settle in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. Cooler behind a cold
front Wednesday night as lows dip into the teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term will begin dry as a ridge of high pressure builds east
into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region through Friday. Low
pressure ejects out of the Great Plains into the Ohio Valley late
this week and weekend, though discrepancies in exact track and
timing remain across deterministic members. For now, continued the
trend of slowing down precipitation which would likely lead to more
rain than snow Friday night into Saturday as warm air advection
occurs ahead of the system.
High temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees through the
long term with overnight lows in the upper 20s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances
affect our region through 06Z/Tues. At the surface, a trough
lingers over/near the Great Lakes and sharpens as a cold front
sweeps SE'ward from the Canadian Prairies and vicinity to the
central Great Lakes through 06Z/Tues. Simultaneously, a ridge
lingers over/near the OH Valley and vicinity. The interaction
between the sharpening surface trough and ridge will cause the
large-scale MSLP gradient to tighten over our area. Accordingly,
SW'erly surface winds around 10 to 15 knots through 15Z/Mon are
expected to increase to 15 to 25 knots thereafter and persist
through 06Z/Tues. These winds are expected to gust as high as 30
to 40 knots between 15Z/Mon and 06Z/Tues. Since primarily
unidirectional flow is still expected in the low-levels,
continued to opt against LLWS inclusion in our TAF's.
Primarily VFR are expected through 06Z/Tues with intervals of
cloud cover associated with aforementioned disturbances aloft
expected to mainly reside in the mid/upper-level atmosphere.
However, moistening ascent ahead of a stronger disturbance aloft
should allow light to occasionally moderate snow to blossom over
much of NE OH and NW PA after 03Z/Tues and impact
KCAK/KYNG/KERI through 06Z/Tues. This snow should be
accompanied by MVFR ceilings and MVFR to LIFR visibility.
Outlook...Periodic snow with non-VFR expected Tuesday morning
through Thursday morning, especially in NE OH and NW PA. Non-VFR
are possible areawide due to snow and/or rain overnight Thursday
night through this Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds 10 to 20 knots this evening will quickly
increase by Monday morning as an upper trough digs south and
tightens the pressure gradient over Lake Erie. Anticipate for winds
to quickly increase Monday morning, eventually increasing to 30-40
knot gales by Monday evening. Peak wind gusts upwards of 50 knots
are possible. Highest winds and gusts will remain east of The
Islands, while winds generally remain in the 25-30 knot range across
the western basin. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale
Warning with this forecast package and remains in effect from
12Z/Mon through 11Z/Tue. Winds will quickly diminish below 20 knots
Tuesday morning as a ridge of high pressure builds north over the
lake. Winds may briefly veer northwesterly Tuesday morning and
afternoon before backing southerly Tuesday evening as the ridge
exits east. Southerly to southwesterly winds increase to 20-30 knots
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold front approaches from
the north. Northwesterly winds diminish below 20 knots behind the
cold front front Wednesday night.
Lake Erie remains mostly ice covered, with the exception of a small
area of ice-free water east of Long Point. Dangerous ice conditions
may arise, particularly Monday and Monday night, when the strongest
winds will occur and temperatures hover around 30 degrees. Ice floes
and shifting of lake ice will pose a hazard to those who venture out
on the ice on Monday. Additionally, strong winds may cause ice to
shift and potentially close shipping lanes.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley NY due to extensive
ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
LEZ145>149-165>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Maines
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Iverson
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 1:02 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501270602-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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