JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 1:39 AM EST
529
FXUS63 KJKL 250639 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
139 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures moderate back to normal levels for Saturday
afternoon and then slightly above normal by the middle of next
week.
- A less active weather pattern is in store for next week with
temperatures close to normal on average.
- A cold frontal passage Wednesday may bring snow showers to parts
of the region that may linger into early Thursday before
ending.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 139 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
With sfc high pressure dominating, many of the sheltered valley
locations near and north of the KY 80/Hal Rogers Pkwy were near or
below the previous low temperature forecast. This was especially
the case near and north of the Mtn Pkwy were several locations
have dropped off into the upper single digits above zero. With
that in mind some adjustments down by 3 to 4 degrees were made for
these more sheltered valley locations for min temperatures with
corresponding adjustments to hourly temperatures.
UPDATE Issued at 1030 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
Did one last update to the forecast based on recent trends in
temperatures around the area. Some locations in our southwest,
after having temperatures fall for several hours after sunset,
have actually experienced warming temperatures over the past hour,
1 to 2 degrees at a couple of sites in Wayne county to be exact.
Current analysis show a warm front moving through the western Ohio
Valley this evening, with light southerly flow setting up as the
front moves through. It still appears that the passage of this
boundary will allow another slow warm up between 9 and 12Z
Saturday. That all being said, temperatures were changed enough in
the forecast grids that the ranges of overnight lows also changed
enough to warrant issuance of an updated zone forecast text
product. The updated zones have been issued and the updated grids
saved, published, and sent to NDFD and remote web farms.
UPDATE Issued at 726 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
Just did another quick update to the forecast to remove the pre-
first period that was put in by the day shift to deal with ongoing
snow showers in our eastern counties that have now exited the
area. Also updated the hazardous weather outlook to contain no
hazards and have only one segment now that pesky snow showers
have moved out of the area.
UPDATE Issued at 626 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
No major update to the forecast planned just yet. Incorporated the
most recent obs into the hourly forecast grids establish new
trends. Temperatures and dewpoints were a couple of degrees
different than forecast values across the area. Will continue
monitoring this trends throughout the evening to see if it
continues. Sky cover was close to on track as well, with the
latest satellite imagery used to establish trends with sky cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
Upper disturbance triggering snow showers along and south of the
KY-80 corridor this morning into the afternoon will move east,
with showers ending from west to east generally by sunset.
Clearing skies into the overnight along with weak Q-G warm
advection is typically an optimal scenario for more significant
ridge-valley temperature splits, so we have continued to lower
temperatures in the valleys and typical cold spots by several
degrees below NBM guidance. With a snowpack in place, would not be
surprised if we are not cold enough, but will monitor trends into
the evening and overnight and make adjustments as necessary. Lows
are generally expected to fall into the teens, but single digit
readings in the typically colder sheltered valleys are entirely
possible.
Warm advection increases across the Bluegrass State Saturday ahead
of the next cold front that will extend from the Great Lakes
region southwest to the Southern Plains by Saturday evening. The
warm advection will help temperatures jump into the 40s.
Additionally, gusty winds are likely by afternoon out of the
southwest, with gusts as high as 20 to perhaps 25 mph west of the
Daniel Boone National Forest.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
There are considerable uncertainties in the long term period that
primarily impact the temperature forecast, but may also influence
the potential for any precipitation which may occur at times
through the upcoming week.
Models generally agree on the general pattern of a large and deep
upper low/trough over the northeastern half of the country, with
upper ridging over the Western US being undercut by a closed low,
progged to be over the San Francisco Bay Area area at the
beginning of the long-term period Sunday morning.
Models are struggling as to when this upper level low will eject
from the Southwest US north and east across the central US later
in the week, and before that, models are also struggling with how
far south the northern stream jet stream intrudes over eastern
Kentucky. It should be noted that the 12z ECMWF just arriving has
made a significant jump toward the 12z GFS with regards to both of
these uncertainties, which may yield higher confidence for future
forecast packages for temperatures and precipitation for much of
the upcoming week.
As for details, the NBM continues to trend lower with PoPs across
the far southeast part of the forecast area Sunday night as a
disturbance crosses the area. With primary dry westerly mid-level
flow, any potential precipitation would appear most likely to be
limited to a bit of drizzle or freezing drizzle.
The next appreciable chance for any precipitation arrives
Wednesday with cold advection snow showers behind a passing cold
front. With the 12z ECMWF trending more like the wetter GFS,
future forecast packages may trend higher on PoPs during this
period.
The NBM will also likely trend drier Thursday night, as it looks
more likely that any precipitation associated with ejecting closed
low over the Southwest US will be delayed until Friday at the
earliest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
The TAF sites were under clear skies and VFR conditions at TAF
issuance with a ridge of high pressure extending from the Gulf
coast states into eastern KY. High clouds should traverse the
region during the TAF period with westerly flow aloft prevailing.
Light and variable winds will prevail overnight, with winds
picking up around 15Z into the 5 to 10KT range from the south to
southwest with gusts generally into the 15 to 20 KT range through
about 22Z before once again slackening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 1:39 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501250639-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAC)
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