CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 9:35 PM EST
028
FXUS61 KCLE 260235
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
935 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight with a ridge building
over the region in its wake on Sunday. A trough will settle over
the northeastern United States Monday with a series of
disturbances crossing the area through midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM...Heavily reduced snow chances and accumulations for
later this evening and overnight across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania as a strip of mid-level dry air remains
in place across the Lower Great Lakes, evident on water vapor
imagery. Still seeing some light returns near the OH/PA border,
but the best moisture/lift overlap continues to gradually move
east towards west-central and central Pennsylvania.
Previous Discussion...
A prefrontal shortwave will continue to cross the area early
this evening which may result in light snow showers across
southern and southeastern zones. However, there's quite a bit of
dry air at the surface so it's possible that snow struggles to
reach the surface (if at all) so capped PoPs at slight chance to
low-end chance (20 to 30 percent). Will need to monitor radar
trends and observations and adjust PoPs as needed. Either way,
snow accumulations will be light and don't expect significant
impacts. The cold front will cross the CWA tonight and most of
the area should experience a dry frontal passage, however cooler
850mb temps will arrive in its wake and any cracks in ice/open
spots in the eastern basin of Lake Erie will be taken advantage
of and lake effect snow showers are likely tonight into Sunday,
best chance in NW PA. Lake- induced instability will be
somewhat marginal so generally expect light snow accumulations,
but can't rule out up to about 3 inches of snowfall in the
higher terrain of Erie County, PA. Dry air will quickly arrive
as a surface high moves into the region during the day Sunday
which will allow any remaining snow showers to gradually taper
off and lift northeast over Lake Erie once southwest flow
develops by Sunday evening.
Dry weather will persist outside of the snowbelt tonight through
Sunday night, although there will still be a fair amount of
clouds through the daytime hours Sunday before clearing occurs
Sunday night.
Tonight's lows will fall into the lower 20s with temps rising a
few degrees into the mid to upper 20s during the day Sunday.
Sunday night's lows will be in the teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure across the Great Lakes will deepen throughout
the day on Monday. This will allow for a strong pressure gradient to
develop across the local area and increase winds and gusts on
Monday. Peak wind gusts Monday afternoon will increase to 35 to 40
MPH, mainly across western zones. The upper low continues to deepen
and sag south toward Northern Ohio which will introduce lake effect
snow showers across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Overall accumulations through Tuesday
morning will be minimal and under an inch outside of Northwest
Pennsylvania. Higher amounts closer to 1.5 to 2 inches for portions
of Erie and Crawford Counties in PA. There will be a brief lull in
lake effect snow Tuesday afternoon before a clipper system
approaches from the northwest Tuesday night and will allow for lake
effect showers to pick up again.
Warmer afternoon highs early next week in the mid to upper 30s for
most, lower 30s across the Snowbelt. Overnight lows will settle in
the mid to upper 20s each night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will be ongoing Wednesday as a trough
remains over the Great Lakes region. Lake effect will gradually
diminish through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure enters from
the west by Friday. Low pressure moving across the Great Plains will
approach the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Saturday, though
there is some uncertainty in exact timing and precipitation type as
the system moves into the local area.
Highs in the mid 30s on Wednesday drop into the upper 20s behind a
cold front on Thursday. Temperatures will gradually rebound Friday
and Saturday with highs approaching 40 degrees on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with primarily VFR to
persist through the TAF period. A very narrow area of snow
showers across Northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania may
result in a brief period of MVFR vsbys over the next several
hours, though confidence on location and timing is too low and
precludes mention for this update. Otherwise, low-end VFR
(~3.5kft) may arrive from the northwest by late Sunday morning
and afternoon, though confidence remains low on any MVFR
ceilings at this point.
Winds are generally out of the southwest this evening, 10 to 15
knots. Added a brief period of LLWS at all TAF sites later this
evening into the early overnight period as elevated westerly
(260) winds of 40 to 45 knots at 2kft arrive with primarily
southwest winds at the surface. Surface winds will shift towards
the west with a cold front passage overnight, 10 to 15 knots
with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Winds will primarily remain
out of the west, 10 to 15 knots, Saturday morning and
afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania in snow Monday night into Tuesday. Non-VFR possible
across the entire area Wednesday into Thursday in snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Dangerous ice conditions remain possible though this evening as
southwesterly winds 15 to 25 knots may cause ice floes to break off
from the southern shore of Lake Erie. Additionally, the strong
southwest winds may cause ice to shift to the northeast and
potentially close shipping lanes. A Marine Weather Statement for
dangerous ice conditions remains in effect until 7 PM this evening.
Generally southwesterly to westerly winds will remain between 15 to
25 knots through early Monday morning. Southwesterly winds will
increase to 25-35 knots east of the Islands Monday morning and will
remain elevated through Tuesday. A Gale Watch remains in effect from
12Z Monday through 11Z Tuesday. Winds diminish below 25 knots
Tuesday morning and will generally remain southwesterly between 15
and 20 knots through the middle of this week.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley NY due to extensive
ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
LEZ145>149-165>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Maines
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Iverson
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 9:35 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501260235-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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