CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 3:35 PM EST
201
FXUS61 KCLE 242035
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure continues to build overhead tonight
before exiting eastward Saturday morning. Low pressure over the
northern Great Lakes will drag a cold front east across the
local area on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another ridge
builds from the west to end the weekend and begin next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure and drier air will continue to build
north over the Ohio Valley region this evening and overnight.
This will provide a brief window of clear and quiet conditions
across the area. Clear skies will allow for low temperatures to
once again dip into the single digits for most with sub-zero
wind chill values early Saturday morning.
Low pressure centered over the Northern Great Lakes will lift a
warm front east across the local area Saturday morning.
Simultaneously, a shortwave aloft will sink south across the
Great Lakes region which will allow for snow showers to
overspread much of Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on
Saturday. New snow accumulations will remain light and under
and inch for much of the forecast area. However, snow
showers will likely linger across much of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania into Saturday night where snowfall
amounts will range closer to 1-3 inches. The aforementioned
surface low will drag a cold front east across the local area
Saturday night.
High temperatures on Saturday will warm into the mid to upper
20s as the warm front lifts eastward. Overnight lows Saturday
night settle low to mid 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface cold front and upper trough axis will be over the area at
the start of the short term period. The front will exit to the east
by Sunday afternoon and expect any remaining lake-enhanced showers
to dwindle throughout the day as high pressure quickly builds in
over the Ohio Valley.
Dry weather is favored through Monday morning, but the next system
will begin to impact the local area as early as Monday morning as
the pressure gradient tightens in response to deep low pressure
moving over eastern Quebec/northern Ontario. Expect southwest winds
to ramp up throughout the day with gusts to 35 and possibly as high
as 40 mph likely by the afternoon. The upper trough axis will clip
the eastern reaches of the area Monday night, resulting in
increasing chances of lake-enhanced snow showers across NE OH and NW
PA towards the end of the period.
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s Sunday and the teens on
Sunday night. Warm air advection will allow highs to reach the lower
30s Monday, however the gusty winds will keep wind chills in the
teens and lower 20s during peak diurnal heating. Expect lows in the
mid to upper 20s Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper troughing will persist across Great Lakes through the majority
of the long term period with a series of shortwaves/troughs pivoting
across the area during this time. Periodic lake effect/enhanced snow
shower chances continue through late week, although the timing of
the highest PoPs will depend on the timing of short waves/trough
axes. Ensembles are hinting at potential for 4+" of snow across NW
PA at some point mid-week (possibly with and behind a cold front on
Wednesday), but still too much uncertainty in available moisture and
fetch to speculate on snow amounts just yet. Remaining lake effect
precip should largely dissipate as high pressure builds into the
region Friday; as of now it appears that any remaining precip by
Friday afternoon will be very light.
High temps will generally be in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday before
temps drop into the upper 20s for Thursday and Friday. Expect
overnight lows in the 20s Tuesday night with teens expected
Wednesday and Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Terminals are continuing to improve to VFR as a ridge of high
pressure introduces drier air to the region. Expect for the
remaining MVFR cigs to scatter and clear later this evening
(around 00Z) across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Clear and quiet conditions remain overnight tonight before mid
to high level clouds enter from the west Saturday morning.
Westerly winds 5-10 knots this afternoon will gradually turn
southerly tonight. Southerly to southwesterly winds increase
to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots by Saturday morning.
Outlook...Periodic snow with non-VFR possible this Saturday
through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-freezing temperatures through the weekend will result in
continue ice growth, although it won't be as rapid as earlier this
week. Ice may shift as offshore winds increase Saturday and
especially as strong winds develop on Monday. This may impact
shipping lanes on Lake Erie.
Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots through this
evening before increasing to 15 to 25 knots by late Saturday
morning. Flow becomes a bit more westerly for a few hours during the
day Sunday, but expect winds to once again shift to the southwest by
Sunday evening. Flow continues to deepen Sunday night into Monday
with winds to 20 to 30 knots expected over the entire lake by mid-
morning Monday. Winds continue to trend higher in the open waters of
the central and eastern basin for Monday afternoon/evening and
currently have winds just below gale force (around 32 to 33 knots)
with the highest winds in the far eastern basin. May need to
consider a Gale Watch in a future update if winds continue to trend
higher. Expect winds to slowly diminish Monday night with southwest
winds to 15 to 25 knots expected by Tuesday. A cold front will cross
the lake on Wednesday, resulting in northwest winds to 15 to 20
knots.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley NY due to extensive
ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Maines
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 3:35 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501242035-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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