IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 21, 6:41 PM EST
258
FXUS63 KIWX 212341
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
641 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazardous wind chills of -15 to -25 degrees persist into tonight
and Wednesday morning.
- Lake effect snow showers, mainly in northern Berrien County, will
continue into this evening with additional light accums and
difficult travel expected.
- A modest warming trend Thursday through this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025
Arctic blast has reached its peak intensity today with wind chills
solidly in the -15F to -25F range as of 19z. "Warm" advection
kicks in later tonight into Wednesday as low level trajectories
flip to the south-southwest in advance of an approaching
clipper system. Temperatures fall back into the single digits
below zero this evening as winds briefly fall off on the
northern periphery of a ~1040 mb high pressure system
translating east through the OH Valley. These temps likely
flatline or come up a few degrees then later tonight as WAA
ramps up, eventually reaching the mid-upper teens by Wed
afternoon under the core of a 30-40 kt LLJ. This regime likely
holds advisory level wind chills in through at least mid morning
Wednesday, with only slow improvement into the afternoon due to
the gusty southerly winds.
As for the LES, backing boundary layer trajectories will continue to
allow lingering LES to mainly impact northern Berrien Ct into
this evening. Have extended the WW.Y to 03z as a result here as
difficult travel due to light additional snow accums, blowing
snow and reduced visibilities persist.
A weak, moisture starved, clipper system is still on target to move
through late Wednesday into Thursday with chances for light synoptic
snow, transitioning to LES post-frontal on Thursday. Light accums
and minor travel disruptions will be possible, mainly in nw IN and
sw MI.
A more zonal flow pattern will bring a welcomed warming trend this
weekend into early next week. A few upper level waves track through
during this time, though precip chances appear minimal given
lacking moisture/amplitude.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025
VFR conditions to dominate as any lingering lake effect clouds
and precip remain well north of KSBN and dissipate this
evening. Upstream mid level clouds will move in late tonight
into Wednesday in association with increasing WAA. Winds will
pick up somewhat late Wed morning into the afternoon with some
gusts to 25 or so knots. No concerns for LLWS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ078>081-
177-277.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
MIZ177.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 21, 6:41 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501212341-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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