JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 7:06 AM EST
094
FXUS63 KJKL 231206
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
706 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold front brings a low chance for a flurries and a few snow
showers tonight into Friday -- any accumulations will be very
minor.
- Temperatures gradually moderate back toward normal by this
weekend.
- There are minor rain and/or snow chances at times from Sunday
night through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM EST THU JAN 23 2025
Thermometers show a wide range in temperatures across eastern
Kentucky this morning as the arctic air mass of recent days is
beginning to pull away. The coldest northeastern hollows have dipped
to around 0F. Meanwhile the warmest thermal belts as well as the
open countryside west of the Pottsville Escarpment remain close to
20 degrees. Satellite imagery shows wispy high clouds drifting
off to the northeast over the Mid-Ohio Valley and mid-level clouds
dropping into western Kentucky. The latest surface analysis shows
that our quiescent weather is due to a ridge of surface high
pressure just to our east stretching from the Canadian Maritimes
down the Coastal Plain/Piedmont to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
This places eastern Kentucky under a moderating southerly return
flow. Off our northwest, an ~1013 mb occluding clipper low is
situated just west of Sault Ste Marie, MI. The system's warm front
extends south from the low through the Ozarks while the cold
front curls back to the west through Kansas. Looking aloft, the
500H map shows a deep positively-tilted trough (with multiple
embedded disturbances) stretching from an ~485 dam low southeast
of Iqaluit, Nunavut southwestward to the Four Corners Region.
As the clipper low tracks into southern Quebec today, low-level
warm air advection will continue across eastern Kentucky through
early afternoon ahead of the warm front. This combined with sunny
to mostly sunny skies will help boost temperatures back into the
30s at elevations below 3,000 feet this afternoon. Lowering
clouds will be on the increase from the northwest, especially
later in the day as the trailing cold front approaches. With PWATs
barely breaking 0.20 inch, this boundary will be moisture-
starved. As a result expect mostly flurries and a few snow showers
with the frontal passage this evening. Flurries then linger for
many locations through the rest of the night amidst low-level
cold air advection on northwest upslope flow. Snow accumulations
of generally a dusting to up to half inch can be expected, with
highest amounts primarily in the mountains near/along the Virginia
border. Temperatures will be turning colder again with lows
forecast to range from the upper single digits out on the
Bluegrass where skies are able to partially clear late in the
night up to the lower 20s in those counties adjacent to the
Virginia border where snow showers and flurries linger. The clouds
and flurries are expected to slowly erode/dissipate from the
northwest during the day on Friday, lingering longest (into mid-
afternoon) in the vicinity of Pine and Black Mountains. Friday's
temperatures will be slightly cooler, only reaching the mid 20s
north of the Mountain Parkway and upper 20s to lower 30s further
south and east.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM EST THU JAN 23 2025
A departing system moves out of eastern Kentucky later Friday,
clearing skies at night under light winds will help temperatures
drop into the single digits in valleys and low teens along
ridgetops.
Saturday, quiet weather looks to return to the state with dry
conditions and highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the upper
20s. Sunday, a area of confluence settles in west of Kentucky, with
a passing system in SE Canada, and another forming in the TX/LA
area. Quiet weather continues through Sunday with highs in the low
40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s. As the system from the south
approaches, some flurries or light snow showers will be possible
across southern counties heading into Sunday night. By Monday, some
light rain or sprinkles will be possible in the morning before
slowly tapering off west to east. Highs Monday are forecasted in the
low 40s, with lows in the 20s and 30s.
Tuesday and Wednesday the low chance showers (10-20%) continue, with
model spread and uncertainty being the main culprit. There are
multiple models that show systems interacting northwest and
southwest of Kentucky, but do to placement and timing there is a
great deal of uncertainty what that will look like for the
Commonwealth. Currently little to no impacts are expected. Highs for
each day are forecasted in the 40s, with lows in the low 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST THU JAN 23 2025
VFR conditions will hold through at least 00z Friday. A mid-level
cloud deck is advancing into eastern Kentucky this morning faster
than previously expected. These clouds will thicken and lower
through the day in advance of an approaching cold front, which
will bring the threat of snow showers and flurries, especially at
SJS, SYM, and JKL, later this evening into the overnight. Winds
will generally be under 10 kts though a few gusts to around 15 kts
cannot be ruled out this afternoon near/west of I-75 and north of
I-64.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 7:06 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501231206-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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