LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 19, 8:31 PM CST ...New UPDATE...
356
FXUS64 KLIX 200231
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
831 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025
A winter weather advisory has been issued for the immediate coast
of Louisiana. This is based on a review of expected weather
conditions on Tuesday and the risk of seeing minor snow and ice
accumulations of up to 1 inch over portions of these coastal
areas. Given the number of bridges in this area, any accumulation
of snow and ice will lead to hazardous driving conditions. PG
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025
Our arctic air has arrived and you can tell if you step outside,
feeling much cooler and drier. It will be felt even more once the
sun goes down as temperatures plummet into the low to mid 20s for
northern areas, including the MS coast, and into the upper 20s
for southern areas. Monday high temperatures will struggle to
reach the low to mid 40s even under some sunshine. Monday night
lows will be similar to the previous night. The temperatures bring
a COld Weather Advisory for the entire area both tonight and
Monday night.
Our surface lows that will be responsible for our snow starts to
form on Monday gradually drifting northward. The low will help
surge some moisture back into the area late Monday. Some light
precipitation likely starts for our area sometime overnight
Monday into the very early morning hours Tuesday, ~3-6am.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025
As said earlier our snow likely starts sometime through the early
morning hours Tuesday and also will be light to start out. Heavier
precipitation looks to start sometime through the mid morning
lasting into the evening Tuesday. There is a good chance some
pockets of sleet will be mixed in for some areas as the warm nose
intersects the cold air. Down closer to the coast there is also a
low chance of some minor ice accumulation, less than a tenth, due
to freezing rain. This will be very dependent on how far north
the warm nose can get. Southern areas also have a chance to see
some wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain at times. The
Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning
given the high confidence. Snow totals have not changed much,
still expecting around 3-6 inches north of the lake and 1-3 inches
south of the lake and along coastal MS. Snow should taper off by
midnight Tuesday into overnight Wednesday pushing east of the area
and we will be dry through the end of the week past that.
In terms of the cold it unfortunately will continue Tuesday night
and Wednesday night. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as areas far north could see
wind chills as low as 5F and other areas will be near 10-15F. Be
sure to protect pipes if you can. These temperatures also bring
the issue of precipitation melting during the day Wednesday and
then refreezing again overnight which would prolong to the
hazardous travel conditions. Also not all of the snow/ice will
necessarily melt Wednesday, especially shaded areas, which adds
onto the prolonged travel hazards. By Thursday we should "warm"
back up into the mid to upper 40s and into the upper 40s to lower
50s by Friday. So while we will be a little warmer towards the end
of the week, we will still be rather chilly.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025
A cold and dry airmass over the area will remain in place through
00z tomorrow, and this will keep VFR conditions in place at all
of the terminals. Winds will remain gusty from the north at 10 to
15 knots with occasional gusts over 20 knots at all of the
terminals. However, NEW will see stronger winds of 20 to 30 knots
through the morning hours as colder air continues to advect across
Lake Pontchartrain.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025
Winds remain elevated today, ~25kts gusting to 30kts, following
our arctic air arriving. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
now through late Tuesday and a Gale Watch has been issued for all
of the outer waters, starting early Tuesday through late Tuesday.
This Gale Watch comes as the surface low brings even more enhanced
winds into the area which could cause seas up to 10-13ft for outer
waters. Winds and seas will finally start to ease on Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 20 39 21 29 / 0 0 20 90
BTR 24 44 26 33 / 0 0 20 90
ASD 24 44 25 34 / 0 0 10 90
MSY 29 42 29 34 / 0 0 10 90
GPT 24 42 26 33 / 0 0 10 90
PQL 24 46 25 37 / 0 0 10 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight Monday night to midnight CST
Tuesday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-
070-071-076>090.
Extreme Cold Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to midnight
CST Tuesday night for LAZ066>069.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Tuesday night for GMZ530-
532-534-536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575-577.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-577.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight Monday night to midnight CST
Tuesday night for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
Extreme Cold Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Tuesday night for GMZ532-
534-536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ552-555-570-
572-575-577.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
GMZ552-555-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...HL
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 19, 8:31 PM CST ...New UPDATE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501200231-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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