MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 3:29 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
419
FXUS64 KMOB 140929
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
329 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
An elongated upper trof stretching from the northeastern states to
the 4 Corners region evolves into a meridionally oriented upper trof
over the eastern states. While a ridge of surface high pressure
generally remains over the region through the period, some modest
moisture return with the amplifying upper trof could allow for a few
patches of rain to occur Wednesday night mainly near the Alabama
coast. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected. Highs today will be
mostly in the mid 50s, then highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to
upper 50s. Lows tonight range from the lower 30s well inland to the
upper 30s at the coast, then Wednesday night will have similar
temperatures except for a tad warmer near the coast. A moderate risk
of rip currents today will be followed by a low risk through
Wednesday night. /29
.SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
An upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast moves off, with
more shortwave energy moving through a weak upper ridge centered
over the Mississippi River. Between the shortwave systems, surface
high pressure passes over the forecast area, bringing southerly low
level flow to the Lower Mississippi River Valley, then Southeast
Thursday night into Friday. Isentropic upglide rainshowers spread
east over the forecast area beginning late Friday ahead of a surface
low forecast to move over the forecast area late Saturday into
Saturday night. Northwest to northerly flow returns to the forecast
area by Sunday morning, and the precipitation shifts south of the
coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A significantly colder
airmass moves over the Southeast with the return of the offshore
flow and temperatures well below seasonal norms move back over the
forecast area.
A surface boundary forms south of the coast ahead of the advancing
surface low. Guidance is advertising any significant instability
remaining well south of the coast, except for a bit of elevated
instability over southern portions of the forecast area. Even with
limited instability, guidance is advertising a 50-60kt 850mb jet
moving over the forecast area later Friday night into Saturday
morning, with an upper level jet bringing modest upper divergence in
the same time period. If the surface boundary does work its way
north, strong to marginally severe storms are a possibility over
southern portions of the forecast area. The upper support may
enhance the upglide rainshowers and bring embedded thunderstorms,
with water issues a possibility. Will continue to monitor.
With the upper ridge, modest as it is, and a return of southerly
flow to the forecast area, temperatures rise to above seasonal
norms. High temperatures around 60 Thursday rise into the mid to
upper 60s Saturday. As colder air moves in, temperatures drop to
well below seasonal norms, with upper 30s to mid 40s expected by
Monday. Low temperatures see the same upper and down pattern, with
30s expected Thursday night rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s
Friday night. From there, the colder airmass moving over the
forecast area will bring a return of mid to upper 20s along and
north of Highway 84 with low to mid 35s south Sunday night. Even
colder temperatures are indicated for Monday night. Cold Weather
Advisories are likely the end of the forecast.
With onshore flow returning Friday and increasing into the weekend,
a Low risk of rip currents mid week becomes High late Friday into
the weekend.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Moderate to strong northeasterly winds gradually diminish through
Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Mobile Bay,
the Mississippi Sound and Pensacola Bay until 9 am, and for the open
Gulf waters until noon as the offshore flow gradually subsides. A
light to moderate easterly flow develops Thursday night then turns
southerly and increases Friday into Friday night. Another Small
Craft Advisory may become necessary for Friday night into Saturday.
/29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 57 36 57 39 60 36 63 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 70
Pensacola 57 39 58 43 60 40 64 57 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 60
Destin 58 42 59 44 62 43 65 58 / 0 10 0 10 10 10 10 60
Evergreen 57 33 57 32 61 31 63 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 70
Waynesboro 55 33 56 32 60 31 62 50 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 20 80
Camden 54 32 55 30 59 31 61 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 80
Crestview 58 33 58 35 61 33 64 50 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 10 60
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>632-
634.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 3:29 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501140929-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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