CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 9:47 AM EST
942
FXUS61 KCLE 201447
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
947 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An initial wave of high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley
today. A surface trough will move through the Great Lakes on
Tuesday before a strong high pressure system enters for
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:45 AM Update:
In terms of the forecast, made tweaks to POPs and QPF/snow over
the next few hours to reflect trends in a west-east oriented
lake effect band currently coming into eastern Lake and northern
Ashtabula County and lifting up the shoreline. This band will
lift out of Lake County by 11 AM, out of Ashtabula between noon
and 1 PM, and out of Erie County by late afternoon. Additional
amounts will be less than 1 inch in Lake County, less than 2
inches in Ashtabula County, and 1-3" in Erie County. Also gave
hourly and max temperatures a slight refresh. Impressive cold
air advection drove current temperatures a few degrees cooler
than the going forecast outside of areas along the eastern
shoreline. Resulting changes through the afternoon lowered high
temperatures by about a degree across most areas.
Am planning on letting snow headlines in Cuyahoga, Geauga, and
Crawford expire on time at 10 AM. Likely will let Lake go too
with the band exiting over the next hour. Probably will extend
Ashtabula to 1 PM to allow this band to lift through, as it has
been dropping quick powdery accumulations and re-covering even
main roads and highways in Lake County. Erie County will remain
valid until 4 PM. These updates will be out around 10 AM.
Previous Discussion...
Lake effect snow across the region has significantly waned this
morning as winds are backing to the west across the region,
disrupting the flow and starting to pivot any snow showers
further northeast up the snow belt. Have expired the Winter
Weather Advisory for the secondary snow belt counties with the
caution that there may be some residual travel impacts thanks to
black ice on area roadways. The Lake Effect Snow Warning for
Geauga County and Winter Weather Advisories for Cuyahoga, Lake,
Ashtabula, and Crawford PA Counties continue until 10 AM.
Overall, the remaining snow for these zones appears minimal with
up to one inch expected. However, there are still some notable
travel impacts in these areas between the icy roads and some
marginal blowing snow, so have opted to keep these headlines
going for now, but will reevaluate before 7 AM, depending on how
the morning commute is going. For Erie County PA, snow showers
should be on and off all day with the westerly flow across the
region. Eventually, some more organized lake effect snow should
return to this area with some connection to Lake Michigan. The
question just remains if the bulk of the snow will be in PA or
end up over Lake Erie and into western NY. As of now, it seems
that the winds will continue to back today and the significant
snow should be largely out of the zone (will need to watch areas
near North East, PA). Therefore, will keep the advisory for Erie
County PA as is for now.
High pressure building into the region has allow for the single
digit temperatures to spread through the area in earnest, and
clearing conditions are pushing through as well. With time
today, the lake effect clouds across the region will push east
and fade and the western half of the forecast area may end up
having a sunny, cold January day. Conditions will be later to
clear east but peeks of sun will certainly occur. Despite the
sun, cold air continues to stream into the region and high
temperatures will be frosty with mostly single digits. Low
temperatures tonight will do well with the clearing conditions
and expect lows of 5 to -5 across the area with wind chills as
low as -20. The Cold Weather Advisory continues.
For Tuesday, an upper trough will move through the Great Lakes
region and extend a surface trough across the area. Expect some
scattered snow showers to move through with this feature and
have expanded the 20-40 PoPs into most of the forecast area. The
bigger concern with this trough will be that the flow will veer
a bit from the southwest to the west and may reintroduce some
higher intensity lake effect snow back into NW PA. Have PoPs
increasing back to likely and categorical for this area with
1-2" of snow for the far northern portion of Erie County.
However, this will need to be evaluated further for a possible
near advisory level snow through Tuesday night. Temperatures
may increase a bit with the clouds and snow and a couple lucky
spots could hit 10 degrees on Tuesday, but overall, the cold
continues.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold wave will peak early in this period as the axis of the huge
mid/upper longwave trough covering much of North America shifts
overhead Tuesday followed by the strong 1040 mb arctic surface high
nosing in from the southwest Tuesday night. This will allow the
coldest surge of air to cross the region, with 850 mb temps
bottoming out around -25 C. Continued to blend in some of the colder
RGEM for lows Tuesday night given the improved snowpack that has
built up across the primary and secondary snowbelts and
southwesterly flow keeping the lake influence away from the region.
As skies clear Tuesday night in response to the surface high
building in, temperatures will reach their coldest readings of this
stretch, with lows in the -5 to -15 F range areawide (coldest in
interior north central and NE Ohio through NW PA where there is
snowpack). This will produce wind chills of -15 to -25 F. Given
these wind chills and the cumulative effects of the prolonged cold,
we will continue to monitor for possible upgrades to Extreme Cold
Warnings Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Slow moderation will begin Wednesday as the mid/upper trough axis
shifts east and the arctic surface high drifts into the Mid Atlantic
region setting up return southerly low-level flow. This will allow
highs to return to the low/mid teens in most areas Wednesday,
although single digits will continue in NW PA. Lows Wednesday night
will stay a little milder in the single digits to low teens. A
better rebound in temperatures will come Thursday as southerly flow
and resultant warm air advection deepens ahead of yet another
mid/upper shortwave trough diving through the Upper Midwest before
crossing the region Thursday night. This will boost highs into the
low/mid 20s Thursday, with lows in the low/mid teens Thursday night.
In terms of snow chances through the short term period, there will
not be much, especially given the arctic outbreak. Lake-effect snow
showers in far NE Ohio and NW PA will steadily lift back northward
Tuesday night while weakening as the boundary layer flow backs and
inversion levels lower as the surface ridge axis noses in. This
could put down another couple of inches in northern Ashtabula and
Erie Counties early Tuesday night before the main band shifts into
western NY. Mainly dry conditions are expected elsewhere, and all
areas are expected to be dry Wednesday and Wednesday night. As the
aforementioned mid/upper shortwave trough approaches Thursday, warm
air advection and isentropic ascent will bring light snow back to
the region, especially northern areas. This will gradually
transition to light lake-effect snow in the primary snowbelt east of
Cleveland through NW PA Thursday night in the cold air advection and
westerly flow behind the attendant cold front, however, surface
ridging quickly building into the Ohio Valley and southern Great
Lakes will lead to a dry and sheared airmass with marginal inversion
heights, so do not expect the lake-effect to be very organized. The
lake will also be mostly ice covered by then, which will also reduce
the organization. This will make it hard to accumulate more than an
inch or two across the primary snowbelt.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will finally see more substantial moderation in
temperatures as the mid/upper flow briefly becomes more quasi-zonal
Friday into the weekend ahead of another deepening trough and surge
of arctic air likely coming after the period. Lingering light lake-
effect snow showers in the primary snowbelt of NE Ohio and NW PA
will gradually shift northeastward Friday and Friday night as the
boundary layer flow backs before completely ending by Saturday
morning. Light snow showers will gradually return to all areas
though Saturday night and Sunday as the aforementioned trough and
cold front approach, so have broad slight chance to chance PoPs
Saturday night and Sunday.
Highs will range from the low to mid 20s Friday before warming into
the low 30s Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Expansive VFR has taken hold on the area this morning with just
some patchy MVFR ceilings moving through interior northern Ohio
and lake effect snow showers allowing for brief periods of MVFR
to IFR visibility. The trends across the region will be toward
VFR with the inland clouds slowly moving east and the lake
effect snow pivoting northeast up the lakeshore. Clearing has
already reached KTOL and KFDY and will reach KMFD shortly this
AM. Winds will be west to start and should back toward the
southwest with time today.
Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and visibility may redevelop in snow
across NE OH and NW PA on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
WSW winds will increase to 20-30 knots today into tonight as arctic
air pours across the Great Lakes. WSW winds will decrease to 15-25
knots Tuesday and Tuesday night before turning SSW at 15-25 knots
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds will gradually veer W to WSW
Thursday through Friday while decreasing to 10-20 knots as a weak
trough and attendant cold front crosses the lake. The arctic air
this week will continue to support moderate to rapid ice growth, and
most of the lake could be ice covered by Friday.
Small Craft Advisory issuance has been suspended until further
notice for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley due to
extensive ice cover.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Arctic air will arrive early Monday morning 1/20, and persist
through Wednesday 1/22. The coldest period is expected to be
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with current
forecast temperatures approaching record lows for 1/22. Below
are the current record low temperatures for 1/20-22.
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
01-20 -17(1985) -22(1985) -18(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -15(1985)
01-21 -20(1984) -19(1985) -17(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -16(1985)
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
OHZ011-012-014-089.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
OHZ013.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ001>003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
PAZ003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for
LEZ166>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Garuckas
CLIMATE...
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 9:47 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501201447-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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