LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 8:21 PM CST ...New UPDATE...
324
FXUS64 KLIX 090221
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
821 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
Overall, the forecast looks in pretty decent shape, as most
temperatures and dew points are within a degree or two of hourly
forecast trends. Areas that are within the Freeze Warning are
generally under clear skies with winds 5 mph or less. Considering
how much temperatures dropped after this point last night, see no
need to adjust overnight lows.
CWF issuance around 9 PM CST will be the normal evening update
with no changes anticipated. NPW will just be refreshing the
message, and no ZFP update is currently necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 153 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
One more chilly night on tap tonight before high pressure shifts
eastward ahead of an approaching storm system. Biggest question
regarding tonight's lows will have to do with cloud cover. While
the thickest cirrus has been gradually shifting northward through
the day, there is still a veil of higher clouds in place with
a plume of upper level moisture evident in satellite imagery.
Current forecast calls for lows in the mid to upper 20s for areas
along/north of the I-10/12 corridor, with upper 20s and lower 30s
through most of the river and bayou parishes, and mid 30s for the
NOLA metro and areas south of there. With lighter winds tonight,
wind chills are not substantially lower than the temperatures, but
are generally in the mid 20s most areas away from the NOLA metro
and immediate LA coast.
This puts us in a tricky spot when it comes to the new cold
headlines. For areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor,
from Baton Rouge through the MS Coast, cold weather advisory
criteria is temp or wind chill of 25 degrees or lower. Using this
strict criteria, we would need a cold weather advisory for areas
generally along the interstate corridor from Baton Rogue through
the Mississippi Coast. However, with it being very borderline and
taking into consideration the lower confidence of actually
reaching the forecast lows due to the previously mentioned clouds,
have decided to leave the freeze warning in place rather than
upgrading to a cold weather advisory. Also considered the lack of
impact to pipes when making this decision since a headline tonight
would be strictly based on wind chill rather than ambient
temperature.
Regarding the previous freeze watch, it was upgraded to a warning
for areas generally west of the NOLA metro where lows are forecast
to reach the freezing mark. Cannot rule out a few isolated
locations in the NOLA metro hitting freezing for an hour or two
tonight, especially for some of the colder locations on the west
bank.
Going into Thursday, a surface low is forecast to develop over the
western Gulf during the day and move generally east-northeastward
toward the local area ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
As the surface low deepens, a warm front will move toward the
coast and isentropic lift over the front will result in a broad
rain shield over the local area as the low approaches. A band of
heavier showers and potentially a few embedded thunderstorms is
also expected to develop along/ahead of the main trough axis as
this low passes by. With moisture content forecast to be well
above average and approaching or exceeding the 90th percentile for
this time of year, heavy rain will be the primary threat with
this storm system. Regarding timing, rain chances really start to
ramp up after midnight Thursday night, with the heaviest rain
forecast between 6a Friday and noon Friday as the low moves along
the coast.
The current forecast calls for rainfall totals generally
in the 1-2 inch range, which is a little lower than the totals
advertised with the morning package. However, an ensemble approach
still suggests at least a low end (10%) chance of rainfall totals
in the 3-4 inch range with a couple spots possibly exceeding 4".
If this was spring or summer, these totals likely wouldn't cause
too much of an issue. But keeping in mind that vegetation is
mostly dormant now, and the ground is a little harder than normal
given the cold temperatures thus far this week and longer duration
freezes for the last few nights as well, the ground is a little
harder than normal. These two factors will mean rain will more
easily be converted to runoff since it can't be absorbed as
quickly as usual. For now, WPC continues to highlight a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding, and this seems
warranted. Wouldn't be surprised to see a targeted slight risk
area as details regarding the heavier band of rain become a bit
clearer.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 153 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
Behind the low, dry high pressure moves into the area again with
another 1-2 nights of freezing temperatures for roughly the
northern half of the area. Highs on Saturday will only rebound
into the upper 40s and lower 50s, but should be a little warmer on
Sunday, topping out in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
A reinforcing front will move through the area Sunday night to
bring continued colder than normal temperatures to the area during
the first half of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
VFR conditions across all terminals this afternoon, and expect
that to be the case during the overnight period. Don't see any
indications on satellite or forecast soundings of a repeat of the
MVFR ceilings of the past 2 mornings. What we do see is a gradual
lowering of ceilings during the day on Thursday, especially during
the afternoon and evening as isentropic processes begin ahead of
the next system. Although -RA is mentioned in several forecasts
during the afternoon and evening tomorrow, it may dissipate before
reaching the surface for several hours due to the very dry air
near the surface. Any significant flight restrictions due to
ceilings or visibilities probably won't occur prior to 06z Friday,
and possibly not until after 12z Friday. Surface winds could also
start to produce minor crosswind issues beyond 00z Friday, as
sustained winds rise into the 15 to 20 knot range.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
Tonight will be generally benign but high pressure will shift
eastward Thursday ahead of an approaching storm system. Low
pressure is forecast to develop over the western Gulf tomorrow,
and it is forecast to deepen as it move east-northeastward across
the Gulf coast through Friday. As the low deepens, winds will ramp
up, and the current forecast supports issuing a gale watch for the
outer waters for Friday due to anticipated frequent gusts around
34 knots. Small craft advisories will also be necessary for the
remainder of the waters, but it's a little too soon to issue those
given uncertainties in the timing. As the low approaches and
passes, we will see numerous showers and even a few thunderstorms,
possibly impacting the coastal waters as early as Thursday
afternoon and continuing through Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 24 47 35 45 / 0 10 100 100
BTR 29 50 41 51 / 0 30 100 100
ASD 27 50 42 58 / 0 10 80 100
MSY 35 53 47 63 / 0 20 80 100
GPT 28 51 41 60 / 0 10 70 100
PQL 27 53 39 63 / 0 0 60 100
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for
LAZ046>048-056>059-065-076-079>086.
GM...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for
GMZ570-572-575-577.
MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for
MSZ083>088.
GM...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for
GMZ572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...DM
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 8:21 PM CST ...New UPDATE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501090221-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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