MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 11:48 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
500
FXUS64 KMOB 121748
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1148 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025
VFR ceilings (cigs) and visibilities (vsbys) should prevail
through this evening as mid level cloud overspreads the coastal
areas. Cigs and vsbys will lower to MVFR late this evening,
eventually becoming IFR later tonight. Rain will also overspread
the region overnight and become moderate to occasionally heavy at
times prior to sunrise through Monday morning. IFR conditions will
remain through the end of the TAF forecast period and likely
prevail through Monday evening.
Winds will also increase later this evening from the northeast and
become gusty at times later tonight through Monday as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to low pressure passing over the
northern Gulf of Mexico through the period. /JLH
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025
Moisture continues to spread onshore across southern Louisiana
this morning and this was validated by earlier derived total
precipitable water (TPW) satellite imagery indicating PWATs
nearing 1 inch over far southern Louisiana. In addition, latest
visible satellite imagery shows a broken to overcast mid cloud
deck advecting northeast from the northern Gulf. In fact, a
numerous radar echoes are also observed across southeast Louisiana
into southern Mississippi. Surface observations as of 17z suggest
that much of this precipitation remains aloft and is evaporating
prior to reaching the surface. This makes sense as 12z sounding
data from KLIX had a pronounced layer of dry air within the near
surface to approximately 750mb (0-3km) layer.
As precipitation continues to slowly moisten the boundary layer
dry layer, expect temperatures in this layer to gradually wet
bulb down. This should keep surface high temperatures cooler than
earlier forecast across southeast Mississippi into portions of
southwest Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle where the
evaporative cooling will be most prevalent. Temperatures here will
likely stop warming shortly and hold steady or even fall a degree
or two, remaining in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Further to the
east and northeast across the remainder of the western Florida
Panhandle and south central Alabama, plenty of sun is expected
prior to the mid clouds advecting in so expect temperatures in
these areas to continue warning into the lower to middle 50s.
Clouds are still expected to lower and thicken areawide by this
evening with rainfall overspreading the region from southwest to
northeast overnight. More details on this rain event will provided
in the afternoon forecast discussion update. /JLH
...Previous Near Term Discussion...
A large positively tilted upper trof stretching from the northern
Plains to near the Baja area becomes increasingly elongated during
the period and expands into the northeastern states. A surface
low located well to the north brings a cold front from the Plains
to through the southeastern states, and in the meantime a surface
low tracks across the northern Gulf Sunday night into Monday.
After a dry day today, this setup will bring categorical pops to
the area tonight with rain ending from west to east on Monday.
Highs today will be mostly in the mid 50s. Lows tonight drop to
the upper 30s well inland tonight, but conditions support the
precipitation remaining as a cold rain. Highs on Monday will be in
the lower to mid 50s. A low risk of rip currents today will be
followed by a moderate risk tonight and a high risk for Monday.
/29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 45 54 31 54 35 54 33 59 / 100 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 46 54 35 54 38 55 37 58 / 100 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 47 56 39 56 41 57 40 59 / 90 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 39 52 29 52 29 54 28 59 / 90 70 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 40 51 24 51 28 53 28 58 / 90 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 38 50 24 49 26 51 27 56 / 80 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 40 53 32 54 32 55 31 60 / 90 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through late Monday
night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through late Monday
night for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday
for GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday
for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 11:48 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501121748-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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