IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 2:26 PM EST
566
FXUS63 KIWX 141926 CCA
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service
Northern Indiana 226 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow showers and gusty winds will create reduced visibilities,
patchy blowing snow and slippery travel into the early evening.
- Wind chills drop to near 10 degrees below zero tonight into
Wednesday morning.
- A round of light snow (60%) may create slippery travel Thursday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Transition to lake enhanced/effect snow showers and blowing snow
taking place this afternoon behind an arctic cold that should clear
our southeast zones by ~21z. Additional accums will be light, but
gusty nw winds and reduced visibilities with heavier snow showers
will continue to create travel headaches for the PM commute. Dry
arctic air with upstream obs in the single digits below zero will
limit inversion heights and LES coverage/intensity then into tonight
with minor additional accums/impacts near Lake MI. Cold air wraps in
under the lake plume otherwise tonight and Wed AM with wind chills
as cold as -10F.
The next quick moving clipper system drops southeast through the
Great Lakes late Wed night into Thursday morning. The associated WAA
surge under favorable left exit upper jet dynamics should support a
round of light snow during this time which could impact the Thu AM
commute. Brief ridging then follows in aloft in wake of this system,
with Friday milder with above freezing highs.
A shortwave ejects northeast from the Four Corners Friday night into
Saturday, while northern stream energy starts to work into the north-
central US. This will send a frontal wave through during this time
with rain and snow chances, though details (QPF/ptype) are lacking
at this forecast range given differences in the degree of phasing.
Renewed deep longwave troughing looks to return late this weekend
into next week with the next shot of arctic air. This will likely be
the coldest air of the season given increasing ensemble support for -
25C or colder 850 mb air wrapping in Monday-Tuesday with headline
worthy cold anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Main area of steady light to moderate snow has left both TAF sites
with focus now on the arctic front dropping through. A band of
enhanced returns did drop KSBN briefly to 1/4SM with stronger, more
cellular in the wake of the band (still briefly dropping to 1/4 to
1/2SM). The greatest vsby impacts look to be clear of KSBN by the
start of the valid time, so have not mentioned the lower vsbys or
cigs and went more off upstream trends. Lake effect will persist
through the afternoon along with gusty winds to bring periods of
MVFR vsbys in light snow/blowing snow and highly variable cigs. No
way to capture these variations in the TAFs. At KFWA the band has
shown a bit of a weakening trend and some question as to how far SE
these will survive. Have went more aggressive in a tempo to handle
both features and will monitor trends.
While some flurries or very light snow showers will persist for a
while behind the front, a very dry airmass will be advected in from
Wisconsin, limited overall snow amounts, but could result in some
minor vsby impacts into the evening hours at KSBN. Will amend as
needed if trends point this way.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 2:26 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501141926-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX-CCA)
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