LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 12:26 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...
961
FXUS63 KLMK 141726
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1226 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A quick dusting of snow is possible this afternoon, mainly across
southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky. Accumulations will
be less than 1 inch.
* Very cold nighttime temperatures through Wednesday night with
morning lows in the single digits and teens. Wednesday morning
could feature temperatures near zero in some locations.
* Milder temperatures Friday, with widespread rain Friday night
into Saturday likely ending as snow Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Reinforcing cold front is located across central Illinois this
morning, which is supporting some snow showers to our north. We are
still dealing with limited moisture, which will result in
mostly isolated snow showers for our northern area as the front
approaches. Will continue with a low-end chance, but will restrict
mention to mainly southern Indiana, north-central Kentucky, and the
Bluegrass area. QPF will barely be more than a trace. While we could
get a quick dusting of relatively dry and fluffy snow, impacts will
be mitigated by air temps just barely below freezing. Forecast
remains in good shape, with slight tweaking of the PoPs being the
only main updated required at this time. Will send updated forecast
products shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 942 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Elongated 1032mb sfc high stretched across the Ohio Valley has
allowed for decent radiational cooling overnight, with most
locations solidly in the teens and typical warm spots SDF and BWG
sitting very close to 20. Positively tilted upper trof currently
over Wisconsin, with light snow developing over Iowa along the cold
front.
Upper wave will scoot across the Great Lakes today, dragging the
reinforcing cold front SE into the Ohio Valley. Moisture is very
limited it's well concentrated in the 950-850mb layer. Should be
able to get at least isolated-scattered snow showers this afternoon,
mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor, but QPF will barely be
more than a trace. While we could get a quick dusting of relatively
dry and fluffy snow, impacts will be mitigated by air temps just
barely below freezing.
Reinforcing Canadian high settles quickly into southern Indiana
tonight, so we should radiate efficiently. Min temps Wednesday
morning will be in the single digits for most of the area, with only
south-central Kentucky likely to stay in the teens. Could see a few
colder spots near or just below zero, but with little or no wind
confidence in reaching -5 degrees is too low to support a Cold
Weather Advisory at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Wednesday begins with surface high pressure over the Lower Ohio
Valley, so winds will be light and variable before northwest flow
pushes the high east of the area Wednesday night. Wednesday's skies
should be sunny, but with the snowpack and arctic air already in
place, temperatures remain below freezing in most places, only
reaching into the lower 20s in parts of southern Indiana. Warmer
temperatures are expected farther south, reaching near freezing in
southern Kentucky.
Wednesday night, warm air advection begin to limit cooling under
mostly clear skies. A couple ares could see single digits again in
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Most are expected to be
in the teens while southern Kentucky could only drop into the low
20s. This doesn't sound too warm, but it's going to be warmer than
Tuesday night.
Thursday morning, northwest flow is expected to push an occluded
cold front through the region. This isn't expected to result in any
precipitation or wind shift, but some west to east isentropically
lifted moisture ahead of the front will likely cause added cloud
cover north of the parkways. On the positive side, warm air
advection is expected to lift temperatures into the mid 30s to mid
40s. This warming trend will continue into Friday and Saturday when
temperatures continue warming into the low 40s to low 50s.
Friday evening/night, besides warmer temperatures, the southern
surface flow will cause deep layer moisture over southern Indiana
and central Kentucky. Model soundings show stable rain profiles.
Chances will begin increasing in the west before expanding east
across the CWA early Friday night. The heaviest rainfall is expected
to fall late Friday night before tapering off on Saturday as a cold
front pushes through the CWA. Winds will shift towards the
northwest. Cooler temperatures will advect into the region. Any
remaining precipitation is expected to change over to light
snow/flurries. Currently, not expecting much in way of
accumulations.
Cold air advection behind the front will remain in the area through
the end of the weekend and into early next week. This will bring the
return of subfreezing temperatures with highs in the 20s Monday and
Tuesday. Nighttime lows could return to the single digits.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Moisture-starved cold front will push southeast across the area this
afternoon, which is expected to bring a low chance for an isolated
snow shower and lower cigs. VFR conditions across the area are
expected to continue for all terminals, but LEX and RGA have the
best chance for a brief period of MVFR cigs later this afternoon.
Gusty southwesterly sfc winds will continue this afternoon, but look
for winds to veer around to a west-northwest component by this
evening as the front passes through. Skies clear and winds diminish
tonight as sfc high pressure builds across the area. Expect light
north winds for most of the night. Some hints of possible MVFR fog
in the hi-res, but with such a dry column, will keep cig/vis
unrestricted for now.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CJP
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 12:26 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501141726-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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