ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 1:04 PM EST
640
FXUS61 KILN 121804
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
104 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move away from the area today as a cold
front approaches. The cold front will move through the region
tonight into Monday morning. Bitterly cold air will then
overspread the area for midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update this morning was to adjust the cloud cover, allowing for
more sunshine in our southeast/southern zones this afternoon as
the current mid deck erodes as it moves northeast. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies (especially west central Ohio), are forecast
elsewhere.
Previous discussion --->
Surface ridge axis extending along the Appalachians will get
suppressed further south and east as a cold front approaches
from the west. considerable amount of cloud cover across the
area to start the day, but there will be at least some clearing
across the southern counties. Temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Cold front will push into the region after midnight and pass
off to the east of the area Monday morning. Low levels will
become saturated ahead of the front which combined with the lift
from the boundary may be sufficient to generate some light
precipitation. Precipitation type still remains in question as
guidance suggests that it will be borderline whether there are
ice crystals available for nucleation. This will determine
whether there would be light snow or drizzle/freezing drizzle.
Have continued to include a mix of those types as the front
moves through. Chance of measurable precipitation remains low.
After the front moves through, there will be some decrease in
clouds. Temperatures may continue to fall well into the morning
before making a very modest diurnal rise.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Meridional flow will be present across the CONUS to start the
period Monday night, with a ridge over the western United States
and a persistent trough over the east. Frigid air will be in
place under this trough, with temperatures ranging from the
single digits Monday night into the teens and lower 20s on
Tuesday.
A weak, reinforcing shortwave will shift east into the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday within this cold pattern. Depending on
model/member, there could be a significant depth of our vertical
atmosphere within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) - low
confidence here due to the range of solutions in the guidance.
However, experience indicates it doesn't take much moisture and
lift to produce a light, powdery snowfall in arctic air.
Therefore, in coordination with neighboring offices, have
increased PoPs a bit into the chance category and have allowed a
light accumulation under an inch for now.
The heart of the cold air will be over the CWA behind this
system Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low temperatures will
likely reach a few degrees below zero with highs in the teens to
near 20 degrees in the south.
After another progressive disturbance brings a chance of light
snow Wednesday night into Thursday, a major pattern shift
appears to be coming heading into the weekend as the western
high-amplitude ridge shifts east across the Ohio Valley to the
East Coast. This will likely bring moist southwest flow,
"warmer" temperatures, and a more significant chance for
precipitation for Friday night and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Into tonight, as low pressure pivots northeast across the
western Great Lakes, a trailing cold front will make inroads
east into our region. There will be sufficient low level
moisture associated with the front to bring ceilings down into
the MVFR/IFR categories with pockets of MVFR visibilities
possible. Moisture overall is not deep, and forcing is weak, so
will continue with a slight chance of precipitation along and
ahead of front. The spotty precipitation could fall in the form
of light snow/flurries or light drizzle/light freezing drizzle
depending on air temperature and atmospheric conditions. Winds
will initially be from the south between 8 and 14 knots with
local gusts in the 18 to 22 knot range. These winds will veer
overnight to the southwest, and then eventually will shift
west with the passage of the front.
On Monday, our area will be in the wake of the front. Winds
will remain westerly in the 8 to 14 knot range with local gusts
to 20 knots. CAA will keep some post frontal stratocumulus
clouds around. Ceilings should eventually lift toward or above
2000 feet.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Tuesday. MVFR ceilings
possible on Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 1:04 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501121804-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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