BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 2:30 AM EST
638
FXUS61 KBOX 110730
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
230 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A more significant storm passes well to our south today, leaving
southern New England with just a period of light snow showers
expected through the day. Dry and seasonable weather returns Sunday
through Tuesday before colder conditions return to our region late
Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Light snow through the day with minimal accumulations. Highest
totals likely over northeast MA.
Regional radar shows light returns already overspreading southern
New England early this morning even as it has yet to materialize at
the surface just yet. There is a fair amount of dry low level air
yet to saturate, with dewpoint depressions of 10-20 degrees. All
told the front edge of appreciable snowfall is expected to move into
western CT/MA around 4-6am, eastern MA by 6-8am. This as the
southern stream shortwave and stronger system passes to our south,
failing to fully phase with the northern stream energy that is
bringing us today's snow. Given lack of deep moisture (PWATs <0.4")
and bufkit soundings showing minimal omega (lift) in the DGZ we
don't expect today's snowfall to be heavy or amount to high impact
accumulations for most. On the whole we expect over the course of
the day to see snow totals on the order of a half inch to 2 inches.
The maximum where closer to 2 inches is more likely would be over
eastern MA, especially Essex county where snow may add up to 3+
inches by the time it wraps up after 8pm tonight. Snow is expected
to be light and fluffy in nature given the cold atmosphere and high
snow-to-liquid ratios (~15:1). Snow tapers off from west to east in
the afternoon, but won't fully exit eastern MA until closer to 7-
9pm. This evening winds will once again begin to pick up overnight
as the pressure gradient increases between the low offshore and high
pressure ridge over the southeast U.S. Expect wind gusts 20-25 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Dry and sunny with light winds.
Sunday kicks off a period of dry and calm weather as high pressure
builds in from the south. Expect temps to begin a slight moderating
trend as winds begin to turn out of the W and SW; this means highs
in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday
A mid-level ridge and associated high pressure will support a sunny
and relatively mild day in southern New England on Monday. 925 hPa
temps rise to near -5 Celsius with modest low-level warm advection.
This should support high temps in the upper 30s/low 40sF at the
surface during the afternoon. Dry conditions continue into Monday
with seasonable low temps in the upper teens across northwest MA to
the low to mid 20s over the coastal plain by Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Thursday
A cold front crosses the region Monday night into Tuesday beginning
a new pattern of mainly cold dry weather. 925 hPa temps dip back
down to the -10 to -15 Celsius range between Tuesday and Thursday
which will result in chilly afternoon temps in the upper 20s/low 30s
and frigid overnight low temps in the low to mid teens. While dry
northwest flow will limit precipitation chances during this time
frame, there may be a shot for some ocean effect snow showers along
the east coast on Wednesday as a weak area of low-pressure moves
through The Gulf of Maine. Latest ensembles means only support a
dusting of snow along the east coast, but there may be an
opportunity for an inch or more of snow on the outer Cape. We'll
have more details as we get into early next week.
Next Weekend
Surface high pressure builds in from the west on Friday supporting
moderating temperatures. This will begin a southwest flow pattern
that will result in mild temperatures in the low to perhaps mid 40s
next weekend. This flow pattern may also be accompanied by periods
of snow or rain, but details are vague at this time. At this point,
we can say with moderate confidence that next weekend should feature
mild/unsettled weather. Stay tuned for further details.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
09Z update...
Through 12Z: High Confidence
VFR with light and variable winds under 8 kts.
Today: Moderate Confidence (Timing)
Area of light snow showers spreads across the region from west
to east between 09-11z. This will bring a period of lowered
ceilings and visibilities, mainly in the MVFR category with
brief IFR possible for the morning timeframe. Accumulations
expected to be light. Main batch of snow moves out by the
afternoon with scattered snow showers possible through the
evening hours over eastern MA/RI terminals. Ceilings gradually
improve this evening. Light NW winds at 5-10 knots, increasing
to 10-15 knots in the evening.
Saturday night: High confidence.
VFR in western MA/CT. For terminals further east, initially
MVFR/IFR with lingering snow showers, improving to VFR. NW
winds 5-10kt with increasing gusts to 15-25 kts.
Sunday: High confidence.
VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Greatest uncertainty is how prominent IFR cigs will be vs MVFR
in -SN. Accumulations of up to 1-2 inches are possible.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Today and tonight... High confidence.
Seas 1-3 ft. Winds becoming N 5-10 kt. Winds and seas increase
after 7pm with gusts up to 25 kts and seas 3-5 ft for the outer
waters. Small Craft Advisories in effect for outer waters.
Sunday...High confidence.
Seas 3-5 ft. Winds 10-15 kts.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow.
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow,
chance of freezing spray. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Sunday for ANZ250-256.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM EST
Sunday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/RM
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...BW/RM
MARINE...BW/RM
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 2:30 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501110730-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!