CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 6:18 AM EST ...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
316
FXUS61 KCLE 111118
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
618 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move east through the area today. High
pressure will briefly build across the region Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by an arctic front on Monday. A trough will linger
across the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread light snow (rates <0.25 inch/hr) continues across
the region early this morning as an upper-level trough moves
east across the Great Lakes, aided by weak lift residing within
a fairly thick and moist DGZ. Cold surface temperatures into
Saturday morning will result in periodic snow-covered roads and
slick spots. Conditions across the area should quickly improve
by mid to late morning as temperatures increase into the upper
20s with snow tapering off and as drier mid-level air arrives.
Winds will briefly shift towards the west behind a cold front
later this morning ahead of a building ridge which could result
in some lake-enhanced snow showers across the snowbelt as the
850 air mass remains marginally-cold at around - 10C. The
unfavorable environment should limit any accumulations in the
snowbelt to less than 2 inches through Saturday night. Will be
able to expire the western portion of the Advisory while keeping
the eastern portion to account for slick spots into the
morning.
A ridge will briefly build across the region on Sunday, with some
spots nearing the freezing mark for the first time since New Year's
Day. Unfortunately, this does not appear to last long as another
system will move southeast through the Great Lakes late Sunday into
Monday. A line of snow showers may impact the I-75 corridor in
Northwest Ohio Sunday afternoon and evening associated with a pre-
frontal trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A stronger upper level trough will start digging down from south
central Canada into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes
region Sunday night into Monday. At the surface, a low pressure
system will track across the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night
through Monday. Very light precip in the form of light snow
showers and/or patchy freezing drizzle will develop Sunday night
into Monday morning across the area. A cold front will push
through early on Monday. Much colder air aloft will advect in
with 850 mb temperatures falling to -20C by Tuesday over the
region. The setup for bands of lake effect snow with some
organization will develop Monday through Tuesday nigh over the
eastern Great Lakes region. The general low level flow will
start out from the west-southwest Monday and Monday night which
will favor the primary Snowbelt and lakeshore zones of far NEOH
and NWPA. By Tuesday into Tuesday night, the low level flow will
become more westerly to slightly west-northwesterly which will
shift the lake effect snow more into the primary snowbelt of
NEOH and NWPA. Accumulating and impactful snowfall will be
likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue over the primary snowbelt on
Wednesday but gradually start to reside later in the day as high
pressure builds in and the flow becomes less conducive. An upper
level trough will linger over the Great Lakes and Northeast
CONUS for the middle of the week. A brief upper level ridge will
move across the Great Lakes region by Friday. Temperatures may
briefly moderate into the 30s for high temps by the end of the
week before the next cold front and Arctic plunge arrives next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mixed-bag of MVFR and IFR conditions across the TAF sites this
morning, primarily associated with lower vsbys from light snow.
Widespread light snow will gradually decrease in coverage
through this morning from west to east, with mainly MVFR
ceilings expected through much of today. Conditions may improve
to VFR out west towards the end of the TAF period.
Winds will gradually shift towards the southwest through this
morning, becoming west behind a weak cold front later this
morning and afternoon, 7 to 10 knots. Winds will gradually favor
a southwest direction once again towards the end of the TAF
period, around 5 knots.
Outlook... Non-VFR may return in snow from a clipper system on
Monday into Tuesday and persist in lake effect snow through
Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak cold front will cross Lake Erie this morning winds
veering from southwesterly to west northwesterly. With onshore
flow of 10-20 knots, waves will build across the central basin of
the lake. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley on
tonight with winds backing to the southwest. Flow will be
offshore through Sunday night before veering to westerly on
Monday with the passage of a cold front. Winds east of the
islands will increase above 20 knots will increase to 30 knots
with the passage of an arctic front on Monday night. Wind
direction is a little uncertain between southwesterly or
westerly following the arctic front but Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed on the central and eastern basin. Ice will
continue to expand, accelerating in growth during towards the
middle of next week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
OHZ023-029>033-037-038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Griffin
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 6:18 AM EST ...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501111118-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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