MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 4:42 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
095
FXUS64 KMOB 061042
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
442 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 442 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
Synopsis...A band of showers, ahead of a strong cold front that
has slipped east of I-65, will move out of our eastern zones very
early this morning. Behind the front, temperatures will plummet
rapidly as dry surface high pressure builds into the region from
the west. Highs today should only manage to reach the lower to
middle 40s northwest of I-65 (14 to 17 degrees below normal), and
the upper 40s to middle 50s to the southeast of I-65 (7 to 14
degrees below normal). Lows tonight and Tuesday night should be
around 8 to 12 degrees below normal, dropping into the 20s. Highs
Tuesday should only manage to reach the middle to upper 40s, or
about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Cold Temperatures...As previously mentioned, temperatures will
plummet behind the cold front, and likely drop into the 20s
tonight. This coupled with a strong northerly wind will lead to
apparent temperatures in the mid teens to lower 20s overnight into
Tuesday morning. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has been
issued for our entire area from 7pm this evening through 10am
Tuesday morning. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday night
going into Wednesday morning, so an additional Cold Weather
Advisory will likely be needed. /22
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 442 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
Cooler/colder temperatures and the continued potential for some
possible wintry weather will remain the primary focus of the
extended term forecast period. Nearly zonal flow aloft is expected
Wednesday into early Thursday as cold, dry high pressure ridges
into our area from the northwest. By late Thursday into Friday
models continue to indicate a strong shortwave trough digging deep
into the southern Central Plains states, which will then move
eastward across the southeastern states through Saturday. These
upper dynamics will aid in the development of surface low pressure
over the northwestern or north-central Gulf of Mexico by late
Thursday, with the low then generally tracking east-northeast
along (or just offshore) the northern Gulf coast through early
Saturday. There continues to be some differences among the models
as to the exact track and timing of the surface low, and these
differences will affect the eventual temperature and precipitation
type forecast for our area later in the week.
The GFS is slightly faster and slightly further north with the
positioning of the low as it moves east then is the ECMWF, but the
differences between the two models have lessened from previous
runs. Both solutions have resulted in temperatures that are
slightly warmer late in the week than previously noted, but there
is still a lot of uncertainty. The NBM low temps for Thursday
night into early Friday are still below freezing for the northern
portions of our forecast area and this will also be the time the
leading edge of the precipitation associated with the surface low
will be moving into the area from the west. As such there could be
a short period of wintry precipitation over the northern third of
our forecast area late Thursday night into early Friday morning,
but it is still a little too early to make any firm predictions on
this. It should be noted that the global model temperatures for
that same time frame are well above freezing over our entire
forecast area, and its quite possible that wintry precipitation
won't be an issue at all. For now, if it does occur we aren't
expecting any significant impacts, but it will be something we
will continue to monitor and update through the early and middle
part of this week.
Regardless of any potential wintry weather, it will continue to be
chilly (or cold, depending on how you look at it) during the
extended period. Daytime highs will not make it out of the 40s for
most locations Wednesday through Saturday, except for near the
coast where lower 50s are possible. Should warm slightly on Sunday
with highs ranging from the low to mid 50s across the area. The
coldest night of the extended period looks to be Wednesday night
when lows are expected to be in the low to mid 20s across almost
all of the area except for lower 30s along the coast. For now it
looks like overnight temperatures will moderate only slightly
Thursday and Friday nights (although as I stated earlier the
global models indicate more of a moderation than the current NBM
forecast). Even with this slight moderation though, we are still
expecting lows to likely range from the mid and upper 20s inland
to the mid and upper near the coast. Saturday night lows will be
about the same, or maybe several degrees cooler. DS/12
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 442 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf Waters through 9am
this morning for the potential of frequent gusts of 35 knots,
followed by a Small Craft Advisory through 9am Tuesday. The Small
Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters has been extended until 3am
Tuesday. These strong offshore winds will gradually diminish
throughout the day Tuesday. A moderate easterly flow setting up on
Friday will shift to an offshore flow behind the next cold front.
/22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 45 27 48 27 49 26 50 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 50
Pensacola 51 30 48 31 49 30 51 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30
Destin 55 32 50 34 51 32 53 40 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 10 30
Evergreen 45 25 46 24 47 22 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30
Waynesboro 40 25 45 23 45 21 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 50
Camden 41 25 43 22 44 20 44 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30
Crestview 49 26 49 25 50 25 51 31 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>266.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Tuesday for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ630>636.
Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655-670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Tuesday
for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 4:42 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501061042-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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