BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 11:58 PM EST
188
FXUS61 KBOX 070458
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1158 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow showers through early evening, turning dry, windy,
and cold for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cold temperatures,
blustery northwest winds and dry weather will prevail for much
of this week. High temperatures may run some 10 degrees below
normal, and be accompanied by below zero wind chills for some
during the midweek. Our next chance for precipitation may not
appear until this weekend, but uncertainty remains quite large.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM Update:
Radar still shows some light returns of snow showers over
southern CT at this hour, but not seeing any reports of snow
reaching the ground so did not increase pops for tonight.
Otherwise the previous forecast remains on track, winds are
steadily increasing and will be quite gusty by daybreak
tomorrow.
Key Messages:
* Light snow showers this afternoon leads to slick road conditions
for the evening commute.
* Dry and much colder overnight with lows in the teens and upper
single digits.
An approaching mid-level trough and shortwave energy is able to tap
into limited moisture from a more robust system exiting the coast of
North Carolina. Light snow observed across parts of SNE with minimal
accumulations, that said, given the prolong cold the snow has been
able to stick to roadways. Have issued a SPS for icy/slick roadways
through the evening commute. Any snowfall totals should be limited
to a few tenths of an inch to at most an inch along the south coast.
Clouds give way to clearing sky tonight, visible satellite across the
northeast shows breaks in clouds in northern New England. Think the
more clear skies will be areas northeast Massachusetts while areas
south and closer to the exiting system will have enough moisture to
promote a mixture of clouds overnight.
Any wet and untreated surfaces likely refreeze tonight as there is
little wind to help dry things out and overnight lows fall into the
teens and upper single digits.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Chilly and windy. Northwest wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph with
locally higher gusts to 40 mph.
* Wind chill values during the day in the single digits during the
day and dropping below zero in places overnight.
Mid-level trough may pinch off into a cutoff low as it moves through
SNE, PWATs are ~0.25", which is below normal for early January,
would expect a blend a sun and clouds. A cold pool aloft, 925mb
temperatures are between -14C and -12C and with mixing up to 900mb
will be able to tap into the colder air aloft and highs are expected
around the low and middle 20s, coastal towns in the upper 20s.
With mixing around 900mb we will be able to tap into stronger winds
aloft, 30 to 40 knots. At the surface expect northwest gusts 25 to
35 mph, not out of the question the high terrain of the northern
Worcester Hills and the Berkshires have gusts to near 40mph... shy
of wind advisory criteria. Coupling in the cold temperatures, wind
chills are in the single digits to just below zero in the high
terrain.
Tuesday night is nearly as cold as tonight, maybe a degree or two
warmer, but the gusts do not diminish overnight. Wind chill values
are 5F for the coastal plain and as cold as 10 below zero in the
high terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages
* Cold and blustery weather persists through the end of the work
week
* 30-40 mph Northwest wind gusts likely Wednesday and Thursday
* Forecast confidence drops off dramatically for the weekend as a
coastal storms develops off the mid-Atlantic coast
Wednesday and Thursday
A deep northwest flow pattern continues over The Northeast on
Wednesday with 925 hPa temps close to -15 C expected to result in
surface temperatures being confined to the 20s for much of southern
New England on both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Furthermore,
the gradient wind is forecast to strengthen on Wednesday in response
to a deepening low over Nova Scotia and a mid-level ridge building
in from the west. This will support the development of a 30 to 40
knot jet that may remain over southern New England through Thursday
night. Thus, in addition to the cold temperatures, we are expecting
30 to 40 mph wind gusts on both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
This will support wind chill temperatures in the single digits/low-
mid teens Wednesday and Thursday morning/afternoon respectively.
Overall a couple of cold and blustery days as we near the end of
the work week. Atmosphere will remain dry during this time frame
with more sun than clouds on both days.
Friday
Diminishing winds and moderating temperatures forecast on Friday as
a mid-level ridge axis builds in from the west. The 925 hPa low-
level jets should weaken to sub-30 knots by Friday afternoon, so
while we're not expecting winds as strong as Wednesday and Thursday,
it will remain breezy with some 20-30 mph gusts possible.
Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs in the mid to upper
30s.
Next Weekend
Forecast confidence drops off significantly for next weekend as a
coastal storm is expected to develop off the MidAtlantic coast
(North Carolina/Virginia). Where it goes from there is the forecast
challenge of the week. Latest deterministic GFS model supports a
strong Nor'Easter Saturday night into Sunday while the EURO model
supports the system moving out to sea well south and east of the
70/40 benchmark. If we consult the LREF and it's 100 ensemble model
members, we find that at this time more members than not lean
towards the deterministic EURO solution which would keep the system
south and east of the 70/40 benchmark. Probabilities of greater than
an inch of snow anywhere in southern New England are only about 20%
at this time for the Saturday night/Sunday time frame. While
confidence in any snow for the region next weekend is low at this
time, a lot can change in 5 to 6 days, as the development and track
of this system will hinge on the complex interactions between a PV
anomaly coming out of Baja California and another PV anomaly
expected to dig south from the Pacific Northwest and through The
Central Plains. We'll have a better idea of what to expect as
ensembles hone in on a consensus forecast later this week. Stay
tuned for further details.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight... High confidence.
Generally VFR with some marginal MVFR ceilings over The
Cape/Islands possible before 06Z. Steady northwest winds from 10
to 15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Could be a period of
light snow showers over ACK from 06z-08z.
Tuesday... Moderate Confidence.
VFR with periods of high end MVFR as stratocumulus clouds form
once again with the passage of a cold front. Winds will be
strong from the NW all day up to 30 knots, possibly higher in
the high terrain and near coastal areas.
Tuesday Night... High Confidence
VFR and windy. NW gusts of 20-25 knots continue
Wednesday... Moderate confidence
VFR and windy again with NW gusts of 25-30 knots. Strato
cumulus clouds possible again which could bring brief periods of
MVFR
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR with gusty NW winds of 25-35 knots for much of the TAF
period. Could be a brief period of MVFR conditions this morning
with the passage of a cold front
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR. Gusty NW winds of 20-30 knots for much of TAF period. Could
be brief periods of MVFR this morning with the passage of a
cold front.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Tuesday Night through Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up
to 35 kt.
Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Key Messages:
* Northwest gale force winds developing Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Tonight through Tuesday Night... High confidence.
Clouds with areas of light snow showers this afternoon into the
early evening across the southern waters. Later tonight increasing
northwest wind across all the waters, prompting Gale Warnings for
all ocean waters and Small Craft Advisories for Narragansett Bay and
Boston Harbor through Tuesday night. Seas off shore building 7 to 10
feet, while near shore 4 to 7 feet.
Additionally, light freezing spray is possible tonight through
Tuesday night.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up
to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
9 ft. Freezing spray.
Thursday Night: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain, slight
chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday
for ANZ230.
Gale Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ231>235-237-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ236.
Gale Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/RM
NEAR TERM...Dooley/KP
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Dooley/RM
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 11:58 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501070458-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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